Why you should be playing money line dogs only

[Ezdoesit]

Philly +11.8 units
Yanks +7.2 units
Boston +6.6 units

Its easy to make money after the fact though, lets say and DO these things before posting it.. Also you need a bankroll to absord a losing streak considering these teams are usually faves.

Pirates are #1
+16.4 units on the season.

Agreed and not saying this is how I bet, though they are the 3 teams that everyone knows are gonna be good, and to hit 60% all you would have to do is bet these teams everygame. Once you add is some capping sky's the limit. Just saying 60% on favorites is not far fetched, if you have some usefull indicators 60% might be a bad year.

 

[Sawyer]

If you pick your spots right, it's ok to lay juice SOMETIMES, but not always..

Some people are consistently laying -160, -180. Very hard to make money this way.

 

[gynecologist]

Actually %80 is even very recheable..if they bet on 1,15-1,20 (-500, -700) odds, lol.

The problem about betting public is, -thats why they love betting on favs- they only interested in winning, winning percentage. they dont care if its -200 or -170. they just want a winner. so ask any baseball capper. majority of them will say yea i hit %60.

%45-52 is not a sexy winnnig percentage for them..but i like the way they think. i hope they stay same, lol.

percentages really don't mean anything in baseball, nobody is betting -110 everything like they are in other sports.. Its all about R.O.I and profit. %'s are irrelevant..

 

[BetWithMind_NotHeart]

i like how people have horrible net profits, then go on a good run and immediately want to tell you how to play. if you win 3 out of 6 days a week betting only dogs then youde lose it back on sunday when the dogs keep going 2-13. if youve been doing this 35 years you should know that everyone has good and bad streaks no matter how good your handicapping skills are. going %50 on dogs and still turning profit is cool, but being able to play both dogs and favorites and knowing when to do it is even better.

This

 

[buffettgambler]

Laying juice will be a big detrimental to your bankroll and sooner rather than later, you’ll go broke. It’s simply impossible to overcome the vigor over an extended period of time and anyone that

Do favorites only pay vigor?

 

[BigCat]

This.

Now that's a good spot to lay the juice.

 

[BudMan+]

-140 implies favorites to win about 58% which will give same loss whether picking favs or dogs. good capping either way will improve the % and maybe you win some. I think you gotta lay the juice with good pitchers especially in good spots, i.e verlander last night.

 

[BudMan+]

and Hamels tonight -190

 

[--MRJ--]

Agreed and not saying this is how I bet, though they are the 3 teams that everyone knows are gonna be good, and to hit 60% all you would have to do is bet these teams everygame. Once you add is some capping sky's the limit. Just saying 60% on favorites is not far fetched, if you have some usefull indicators 60% might be a bad year.

If your playing BOS, NYY, and Philly maybe you WILL hit 60+% but you won't be a winner unless you are picking games where you have an edge over the books line. And that goes for all wagers, whether dogs, favs, sides, props, etc.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Now, let’s say you wager strictly on dogs at an average of +130 and you hit that same 52%.
288 losses at –100 = 28,800.00 in losses


272 wins @ +130 = 35,360 in wins for a total profit of 6,560.00 for the season, which is a staggering difference of close to 17,000.00 for the year.

I doubt many can sustain a 52% win rate over an extended time playing exclusively dogs.....my hats off to those who can.

I agree with most of your discertation, Sherwood, but as others have pointed out, it's more about PICKING WINNERS than simply wagering on a dog. Pricing vs the line is equally important. What if you make a favorite -150 and Vegas is offering -120? The dog in this matchup may be 110. Which is the better value? Wouldn't you pay 1.20 for something worth 1.50......over and over again!

I think it becomes obvious that one needs to "pick your battles" and not blatently play dogs simply because there's a + sign ahead of it.

I read and respect your writeups, Sherwood, and I wish you all the best on your wagers...

 

[buffettgambler]

60 % for the year is well within reach
This just might be the most ridiculous statement I've heard in 35 years.

How can it be a ridiculous statement without knowing the persons average lay?