10-0 vs 3-7 and the 3-7 team is the favorite due to the gamblers fallacy. "10-0 is due to lose." is the mind frame of the public and the man has to account for such irrational thinking. Now that the game is over you can see that the game played true to fundamental form. Carolina led the league in point off turnovers and Tony (the Human Turnover) Romo was in true form. The majority of games will play to form BUT the ones that don't are the one's the bettors mind will remember.
It was actually an error by the Oddsmakers.
The so called Smart $$$ took the Cowboys and lost big while the betting public grabbed the Panthers.
Many times on Thanksgiving the betting public will be given a gift.
The Books know that by the end of the day on Sunday the betting public will have given it all back.
Do you honestly think that Vegas put a line out there to lose money on it?
Or do you maybe think that they overestimated a team at home that is historically good on thanksgiving that was finally getting healthy?
I know that Dallas got a few points because it was thanksgiving, but i have to believe that the public was all over the Cowboys.
Um, no.
"Gamblers fallacy" describes the belief that the odds of something are more likely to happen when intact they are unchanged, e.g. a roulette wheel coming up red 10 times in a row. One is tempted to think that black is more likely to come up on the next spin because it is "due," when in fact the odds of it coming up are the same as always, because each spin is an independent event unrelated to what has happened previously.
Carolina isn't a fraud, but they aren't as good as an undefeated record might indicate, and I don't think Vegas is sold on them. Dallas was at home, had Romo back and looked good the week before against Miami. That explains the line.
"Gamblers fallacy" describes the belief that the odds of something are more likely to happen when intact they are unchanged, e.g. a roulette wheel coming up red 10 times in a row. One is tempted to think that black is more likely to come up on the next spin because it is "due," when in fact the odds of it coming up are the same as always, because each spin is an independent event unrelated to what has happened previously.
Carolina isn't a fraud, but they aren't as good as an undefeated record might indicate, and I don't think Vegas is sold on them. Dallas was at home, had Romo back and looked good the week before against Miami. That explains the line.
No I do not think the Books intended to lose $$$, but they did throw out a very suspect line that the general public took and the smart $$$ took the other side and lost.
The Books didn't anticipate Romo throwing two pick 6's either. It's just one of those games where they made a mistake. It's rare, but it does happen.
On Sunday there is another very suspicious game.
Why is New England only favored by 3 at Denver with a back up QB, yet the general public is pounding New England and I guarantee you that line won't budge off of 3, but as of today the ML is dropping.
In my opinion, New England loses on Sunday. BUT I've been wrong before.
Strength of schedule (SOS) was also mentioned quite a bit. Many said the Panthers were overrated because they were given a weak schedule but they had no control over who they played and went out and defeated all their opponents. To me, SOS doesn't always indicate an inferior or weak team, only that a team hasn't had a chance to prove themselves. Yesterday, the Panthers proved themselves but I suspect that still won't be enough for some people.
Everybody is an expert after the fact lol. That always gives me a laugh. IMO the line was perfectly set and it was perfectly set up to achieve even money on both sides. When this line came out, no matter how you look at it, the game was a PK. Plus or minus one point regardless who was favored isnt a big difference to me. You pick the right side and you are taking home the cash. BUT some people reacted on the line movement, when all in all, there really wasnt any movement at all with a game that was basically a pk. And then how it was presented to the bettors.....Oh romo is 3-0 with the cowboys and he is "Mr. November". People were already cashing Dallas tickets before the game even started just from the pre-facts presented and then the opening of the line!!!! So you tell me the line was WAY off?!!!!! Because the line opening at pk it made alot of people think trap for carolina!!! Tell me im wrong!!!! Line was on point!! Tell that to the linemakers and they will laugh all up in your face imo. Dallas backers forgot to actually cap the game before they placed a bet. For me it was Carolina. They were way better team. Cam is throwing with precision.
Dallas? Fuck Dallas!!!! Im a niner fan. But believe me when i say it had nothing to do with going against them. i have bet on dallas before and cashed but seldomly this year if any. it was more ML bets against them.
Back to my point....line set perfectly in that game. sorry if you had dallas. Few people i respect here had dallas AND had them for GOY type post so sorry to them.
Dallas? Fuck Dallas!!!! Im a niner fan. But believe me when i say it had nothing to do with going against them. i have bet on dallas before and cashed but seldomly this year if any. it was more ML bets against them.
Back to my point....line set perfectly in that game. sorry if you had dallas. Few people i respect here had dallas AND had them for GOY type post so sorry to them.
Yup! This game turned ugly because Jason Garrett had a dumbass game plan. Why he didn't come out with a run heavy offense and shove the ball down the Panthers throat we'll never know. They tried to get cute with lob passes from Romo early and it burned them. CAR didnt score an offensive TD until the end of the 3rd Q. They had 3 FGs prior to that. Dumb ass game plan from Garrett. If he wasn't doing what Jerry Jones was telling him to do, he'd be fired by now. Probably will be at end of season.
Common knowledge tells us that vegas only creates the point spread to balance the bettors money on either side of an event. They obviously knew they would get lots of Dallas action as is common on TG. If they had not you would have seen the line move accordingly.
I have to admit, that did seem like an early Christmas gift. Cheers and Good Luck Everyone !
I have to admit, that did seem like an early Christmas gift. Cheers and Good Luck Everyone !
I don't care what anyone says, the line should have been Carolina -7.........Romo back from I jury & Dallas was 0-7 w/o him& tthen they win at Miami as a -2 rd fav, & now one man is supposed to be worth 7 points??? GTFO!
Vegas isn't stupid, & there is NO way the sharps were on Dallas no matter what anyone thinks they know or heard.
The sharps were probably on both sides which kept the line around Pk.......but the public was all over Carolina.......I only talked to one of my locals that has over 10) clients & he said he got smashed yesterday in the first 2 games but got half of it back in the Gbay game.
Vegas isn't stupid, & there is NO way the sharps were on Dallas no matter what anyone thinks they know or heard.
The sharps were probably on both sides which kept the line around Pk.......but the public was all over Carolina.......I only talked to one of my locals that has over 10) clients & he said he got smashed yesterday in the first 2 games but got half of it back in the Gbay game.
The Chad Millman and Scooch podcast this week talks about this game for a few minutes. Scooch says all the sharp money came in on Dallas. Conversation starts around the 5 min mark. Interesting stuff. I'm sure they'll discuss it again next week.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=14217412
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=14217412
Carolina should have been -7?
Its apparent not many people understand how lines are made. The line was right, a point either side of PK was fine too.
I am a new england fan and I am taking Denver at home getting 3 points. Pats have many injuries traveling to mile high after a long Monday night game. Historical brady does not play his best in Denver and has his receivers banged up and not playing. Denvers rookie qb looked good last week Might be the real deal. Low scoring close game is what i think happens but who am I, they call it gambling because you never know.
