After breaking this game down i have come up with a bunch of reasons i think Denver is in big trouble....
7. Las Vegas is telling you what the result will be—they put up the line at Seattle -1 & within 1 hour had taken so many bets on Denver that its now Seattle +2 or +3 in places, now the reason this is totally suss is that Vegas know precisely what the betting public is thinking about a game & the bookies usually look for even action on a game & then make their money off the juice, but in this case they have dangled a carrot & clearly the Vegas bookies have sided with the Seahawks & want people to back Denver, these guys usually kill it when they take a position like this.
I think Seattle wins with a scoreline something like Seattle 27---Denver 17
- When the number 1 Defense (Seattle #1) has played in the SB their record is 12-3, this tells you a fair bit about how a dominant Defense is more important in the big games than a dominant Offense, the number 1 Offense is 10-8 in SuperBowls. When #1 D has played #1 O in the SB the record is 3-1 in the D’s favour.
- Weather, this year is played outside in New York, its also a night game so there just no way it can be anything other than cold & quite possibly it might be windy & there’s also the chance it could rain or even snow, all of these factors help a Defense & hinder an offense that is highly geared to passing the football.
- Running game, Seattle has a dominant running game which is important in cold or bad weather & also has the added benefit of making their drives consume a lot of clock & keep Manning off the field hence limiting the number of possessions he’ll get. A strong running game will also open up Denver’s suspect D (its no better than middle of the road) against the pass (Denver’s pass D is like 26[SUP]th[/SUP] rated) so if Seattle get moving the ball on the ground lookout because Denver will load up to stop the run & leave themselves wide open.
- Who the 2 teams have been playing & beating, Denver has scored 26 & 27 against 2 very mediocre & injury riddled defenses San Diego & New England, neither mirror what they’ll face vs Seattle, the Seahawks have shut down teams like the Saints who are also a high powered passing team---in 2 games vs New Orleans the Seahawks conceded a total of 22 points (15 of these came in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] qtr of the last game). Seattle found a way to score against another dominant defense (49ers) who might have been the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] best team in the league. Manning has not faced a D like this all season.
- Pure matchup problems, Seattle had a bit of trouble vs the 49ers because SF have a very mobile QB—Kaepernick ran for 130 yards & it caused problems because they had to keep 1 linebacker in to cover the QB running the ball, they know Peyton will never run & will have an extra guy in coverage or to rush the QB, they are also the best secondary in the game & have a guy (Sherman) who is like Dion Sanders—you simply put him on a favoured target & he's taken out of te game all day. Denver will not get much from yards after the catch against Seattle.
- Percy Harvin didn’t play vs 49ers (concussion) but will be back for the SB, this gives them another big play threat. Denver’s D is actually a good chance to get exposed, they were flattered against NE who were missing several of their best players.
7. Las Vegas is telling you what the result will be—they put up the line at Seattle -1 & within 1 hour had taken so many bets on Denver that its now Seattle +2 or +3 in places, now the reason this is totally suss is that Vegas know precisely what the betting public is thinking about a game & the bookies usually look for even action on a game & then make their money off the juice, but in this case they have dangled a carrot & clearly the Vegas bookies have sided with the Seahawks & want people to back Denver, these guys usually kill it when they take a position like this.
I think Seattle wins with a scoreline something like Seattle 27---Denver 17
