[h=1]Steelers will win the AFC North[/h][h=3]Improved run-blocking and pass rush could lift Pittsburgh to division crown[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Last season marked the first time the Pittsburgh Steelers have missed the playoffs in consecutive years since they were absent from the playoffs for the 1998-2000 campaigns. The good news for the Black and Gold? It is unlikely that postseason drought will extend into a third season, as multiple factors point toward the Steelers making a return to the playoffs in 2014 after an 8-8 campaign last year, and winning the AFC North. Here's why.
Their run-blocking prowess could reach elite levels with the return of Maurkice Pouncey
The Steelers bring back four starters who served as the core of a blocking wall from last year's offensive line, a unit that posted a superb total in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offensive blocking wall gives a ball carrier good blocking, which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rushing attempt. Pittsburgh's 44.7 percent GBR last season ranked ninth in the league.
The fifth starting spot is at center, which should be upgraded with the return of Pouncey from a knee injury that cost him all but one game of the 2013 season. <OFFER>The Steelers have a lot of confidence in Pouncey, as they recently signed him to a new deal. Assuming he is coming back at full strength, the addition of this three-time Pro Bowler could move the Steelers to top-five status in this category.
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Ben Roethlisberger's improved decision-making
Roethlisberger has always been something of a risk-taker, but over the past three seasons he has shown tremendous improvement in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric. BDR tracks how frequently a passer makes a mental error that becomes a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Gunslinging passers such as Roethlisberger usually tend to have BDR totals at or around 3 percent, and that's where Big Ben was in 2010 (3.0 percent BDR). That number dropped to a 2.4 percent mark in his first year in offensive coordinator Todd Haley's offense and got even better last season when he posted a 1.7 percent BDR. Those BDR declines are a big part of why Roethlisberger posted the second- and third-lowest interception rates of his career over the past two seasons and should be able to keep his pickoff rate low again in 2014.
LeGarrette Blount and Dri Archer will give the team big-play threats
Le'Veon Bell does a lot of things well, but breaking off long gains isn't one of them. This was an issue dating back to his days at Michigan State. During the 2012 regular season with the Spartans, Bell notched a 5.6-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric when facing tough rushing defenses. GBYPA measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking and the median figure in this statistic in college football is usually between 7.5-8 yards.
Bell followed that collegiate showing up by posting a 5.8-yard GBYPA in his rookie pro campaign. That total ranked 44th out of the 47 running backs who had 100 or more carries last year.
This issue means the Steelers could use some home run hitting in the backfield, and despite the fact that he is a bigger back not known for his speed, ripping off long runs has been Blount's specialty. His 9.3 GBYPA ranked sixth in the league in 2013 and isn't a single-season anomaly, as his 8.8 GBYPA in 2010 ranked third in the league.
Archer, Pittsburgh's 2014 third-round pick, also has a history of posting long gains. According to ESPN Stats & Information, his 8.62 yards per carry total over the past two seasons placed first among college football ball carriers with 200 or more rushing attempts. His 5-foot-8, 179-pound frame may not allow him to shoulder a lot of the rushing workload but the Steelers will find ways to get him into space and maximize usage of his elite speed (4.26 40-yard dash at the NFL combine).
An improved pass rush
There is no question that Pittsburgh's front seven is in a state of transition, as Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel and LaMarr Woodley, a trio that racked up 30 combined starts last season, all departed via free agency.
That may not be a bad thing, though, as the Steelers fared quite poorly in the disrupted dropback percentage metric. This statistic gauges how often a defense notches a sack, pass defensed, interception or batted ball. Pittsburgh's 15.2 percent mark in this category ranked 23rd in the league last season and Hood, Keisel and Woodley had a composite disrupted dropback mark of 0.8 percent.
Upgrades in this area look to be on their way via the draft. According to Stats LLC, first-round draft pick Ryan Shazier, a linebacker from Ohio State, ranked tied for 11th nationally among linebackers in the total pressures metric that measures the frequency with which a defensive player tallies a knockdown or a hurry. Second-round pick Stephon Tuitt, a defensive end from Notre Dame, placed tied for 16th nationally in total pressures by a defensive lineman.
The Steelers also benefit from defensive end Cameron Heyward developing into a very good starter. His 1.9 percent disrupted dropback percentage ranked tied for first on the club and placed 15th among NFL defensive linemen last year. An improved pass rush also would take pressure off a potential problem area on defense: the secondary. Pittsburgh added Mike Mitchell this offseason, but plenty of holes remain on the back end. Ike Taylor (34), Troy Polamalu (33) and William Gay (29) all are getting up in years and struggled last season.
Emmanuel Sanders' production level can be easily replicated
One of Pittsburgh's major offseason personnel losses was the departure of Sanders via free agency to Denver. This looks like a significant production loss, as Sanders finished second on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and receptions of 10 or more yards. But Sanders' impact was much more quantity-based than quality-based. His 11.0 yards per reception last season ranked 32nd out of the 34 wide receivers who saw at least 100 targets.
Lance Moore, the former New Orleans receiver who was brought in via free agency to replace Sanders, is coming off of four consecutive seasons with a higher yards per reception total than Sanders posted last year. Durability isn't Moore's strong suit, but it wasn't Sanders' strong suit either, and the Steelers will likely be asking Moore to tally only in the neighborhood of 100 targets. Even if he doesn't quite match up to Sanders' production volume, the net result of this trade-off should be a push at worst.
A weakened AFC North
Pittsburgh also should benefit from the weakened state of the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals lost their playcaller (Jay Gruden), one of their top pass-rushers (Michael Johnson), their defensive coordinator (Mike Zimmer) and ended last year with more questions about Andy Dalton than they had coming into the season. Baltimore missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons in large part because of their offensive woes (4.51 yards per play, ranked last), and their offseason additions of Steve Smith and Owen Daniels will not solve that problem. Cleveland added Johnny Manziel, but he isn't the starter as of now and they could be without the services of Josh Gordon, arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, for possibly the entire season.
This confluence of events should leave the path to the division title wide open, and Pittsburgh looks to be the only club in the AFC North trending upward. That should make them the favorite to win the division title and return to the postseason in 2014.
Last season marked the first time the Pittsburgh Steelers have missed the playoffs in consecutive years since they were absent from the playoffs for the 1998-2000 campaigns. The good news for the Black and Gold? It is unlikely that postseason drought will extend into a third season, as multiple factors point toward the Steelers making a return to the playoffs in 2014 after an 8-8 campaign last year, and winning the AFC North. Here's why.
Their run-blocking prowess could reach elite levels with the return of Maurkice Pouncey
The Steelers bring back four starters who served as the core of a blocking wall from last year's offensive line, a unit that posted a superb total in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offensive blocking wall gives a ball carrier good blocking, which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rushing attempt. Pittsburgh's 44.7 percent GBR last season ranked ninth in the league.
The fifth starting spot is at center, which should be upgraded with the return of Pouncey from a knee injury that cost him all but one game of the 2013 season. <OFFER>The Steelers have a lot of confidence in Pouncey, as they recently signed him to a new deal. Assuming he is coming back at full strength, the addition of this three-time Pro Bowler could move the Steelers to top-five status in this category.
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Ben Roethlisberger's improved decision-making
Roethlisberger has always been something of a risk-taker, but over the past three seasons he has shown tremendous improvement in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric. BDR tracks how frequently a passer makes a mental error that becomes a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Gunslinging passers such as Roethlisberger usually tend to have BDR totals at or around 3 percent, and that's where Big Ben was in 2010 (3.0 percent BDR). That number dropped to a 2.4 percent mark in his first year in offensive coordinator Todd Haley's offense and got even better last season when he posted a 1.7 percent BDR. Those BDR declines are a big part of why Roethlisberger posted the second- and third-lowest interception rates of his career over the past two seasons and should be able to keep his pickoff rate low again in 2014.
LeGarrette Blount and Dri Archer will give the team big-play threats
Le'Veon Bell does a lot of things well, but breaking off long gains isn't one of them. This was an issue dating back to his days at Michigan State. During the 2012 regular season with the Spartans, Bell notched a 5.6-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric when facing tough rushing defenses. GBYPA measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking and the median figure in this statistic in college football is usually between 7.5-8 yards.
Bell followed that collegiate showing up by posting a 5.8-yard GBYPA in his rookie pro campaign. That total ranked 44th out of the 47 running backs who had 100 or more carries last year.
This issue means the Steelers could use some home run hitting in the backfield, and despite the fact that he is a bigger back not known for his speed, ripping off long runs has been Blount's specialty. His 9.3 GBYPA ranked sixth in the league in 2013 and isn't a single-season anomaly, as his 8.8 GBYPA in 2010 ranked third in the league.
Archer, Pittsburgh's 2014 third-round pick, also has a history of posting long gains. According to ESPN Stats & Information, his 8.62 yards per carry total over the past two seasons placed first among college football ball carriers with 200 or more rushing attempts. His 5-foot-8, 179-pound frame may not allow him to shoulder a lot of the rushing workload but the Steelers will find ways to get him into space and maximize usage of his elite speed (4.26 40-yard dash at the NFL combine).
An improved pass rush
There is no question that Pittsburgh's front seven is in a state of transition, as Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel and LaMarr Woodley, a trio that racked up 30 combined starts last season, all departed via free agency.
That may not be a bad thing, though, as the Steelers fared quite poorly in the disrupted dropback percentage metric. This statistic gauges how often a defense notches a sack, pass defensed, interception or batted ball. Pittsburgh's 15.2 percent mark in this category ranked 23rd in the league last season and Hood, Keisel and Woodley had a composite disrupted dropback mark of 0.8 percent.
Upgrades in this area look to be on their way via the draft. According to Stats LLC, first-round draft pick Ryan Shazier, a linebacker from Ohio State, ranked tied for 11th nationally among linebackers in the total pressures metric that measures the frequency with which a defensive player tallies a knockdown or a hurry. Second-round pick Stephon Tuitt, a defensive end from Notre Dame, placed tied for 16th nationally in total pressures by a defensive lineman.
The Steelers also benefit from defensive end Cameron Heyward developing into a very good starter. His 1.9 percent disrupted dropback percentage ranked tied for first on the club and placed 15th among NFL defensive linemen last year. An improved pass rush also would take pressure off a potential problem area on defense: the secondary. Pittsburgh added Mike Mitchell this offseason, but plenty of holes remain on the back end. Ike Taylor (34), Troy Polamalu (33) and William Gay (29) all are getting up in years and struggled last season.
Emmanuel Sanders' production level can be easily replicated
One of Pittsburgh's major offseason personnel losses was the departure of Sanders via free agency to Denver. This looks like a significant production loss, as Sanders finished second on the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and receptions of 10 or more yards. But Sanders' impact was much more quantity-based than quality-based. His 11.0 yards per reception last season ranked 32nd out of the 34 wide receivers who saw at least 100 targets.
Lance Moore, the former New Orleans receiver who was brought in via free agency to replace Sanders, is coming off of four consecutive seasons with a higher yards per reception total than Sanders posted last year. Durability isn't Moore's strong suit, but it wasn't Sanders' strong suit either, and the Steelers will likely be asking Moore to tally only in the neighborhood of 100 targets. Even if he doesn't quite match up to Sanders' production volume, the net result of this trade-off should be a push at worst.
A weakened AFC North
Pittsburgh also should benefit from the weakened state of the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals lost their playcaller (Jay Gruden), one of their top pass-rushers (Michael Johnson), their defensive coordinator (Mike Zimmer) and ended last year with more questions about Andy Dalton than they had coming into the season. Baltimore missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons in large part because of their offensive woes (4.51 yards per play, ranked last), and their offseason additions of Steve Smith and Owen Daniels will not solve that problem. Cleveland added Johnny Manziel, but he isn't the starter as of now and they could be without the services of Josh Gordon, arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, for possibly the entire season.
This confluence of events should leave the path to the division title wide open, and Pittsburgh looks to be the only club in the AFC North trending upward. That should make them the favorite to win the division title and return to the postseason in 2014.
