First let me start with their best offseason addition: HC Adam Gase. I think Gase did a great job of adjusting the Bears offense to their personnel. He took away the middle and let Cutler throw screens and short passes to the sides along with looking for some big play opportunities down the field. For Bears and Cutler standards it was quite amazing how good this offense was if you consider that Kevin White didn’t play at all and Alshon Jeffery missed 8 starts. In his 9 games though, of which he had to finish 2 games early, Jeffery was on pace for a career season. Just imagine Cutler would have had Jeffery & White for 16 games.
I was always high on Ryan Tannehill, I think he can be a top-10 QB. I guess he was sacked the most times out of all QBs the last four years and he was handcuffed by the coaching staff. You cannot perform well under those circumstances. Lamar Miller is a beast, but Lazor didn’t give him enough touches on first down to make Tannehill’s life easier. I would run a better gameplan on Madden! That’s flat out stupid. Tannehill was one of the most pressured QBs in the league. Last year wasn’t any different as he was sacked 45 times and a new inexperienced coaching staff took over. BUT if you just take a look at Ryan Tannehill individually, you will recognize a lot of things:
-He was highly accurate for a second straight year
-He makes smart decisions
-Only a handful sacks were his fault
-His receivers dropped a lot of passes that lost many yards
-He almost didn’t throw interceptable passes
Ryan Tannehill’s problem is that he gets blamed for a dysfunctional offense. Aaron Rodgers had the exact same situation in 2015 – poor OL play at times and his receivers dropped passes like they were hot coals. They finished as a bottom-10 offense efficiency-wise. No one blamed Aaron Rodgers – why? Because he still made the best out of it and he already has a good reputation, something Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have. On the flip side, Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense get hyped just because Hurns and Robinson made circus catches due to their high receiving radius which didn’t make Bortles look like the QB he was – a bad one.
Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 offensive lines from Miami:
Branden Albert – didn’t look 100% off his ACL injury. Ja’Wuan James only played 38% of the snaps. His replacement Jason Fox doesn’t have anything to do with an NFL starter. Dallas Thomas was awful, but he was asked to play 99.9% of the snaps in 2015. Billy Turner wasn’t as bad as Dallas Thomas was, but he sucked in a lot of games.
This season – not considering hypothetical injuries – the Fins get Branden Albert back healthy off a full offseason to get back to 100%. At the age of 31, Albert has 2 good years left in the tank. Laremy Tunsil, hands down the best offensive lineman in the draft, will likely play LG next to Albert. Aside from Tunsil, Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey was Tannehill’s lone consistent starter. From C to LT, Tannehill’s blind side will be greatly protected. Ja’Wuan James comes back healthy at RT and on RG they either start Billy Turner, Craig Urbik or Jermon Bushrod. Maybe Bushrod at RT and James at RG.
Anyway, this offensive line will be by far the best Ryan Tannehill has worked with in his career and his receiving corps is full of weapons. If this OL starts the season healthy, it’s going to be a top-10 offense along with the play-calling by Adam Gase.
What does this have to do with being good against the spread?
The Dolphins went 5-11 ATS last season. A lot of that had to do with them being overhyped going into 2015. They started the season 1-3 ATS, opening as favs in all of them. After the coaching change, they answered with 2-0 ATS, because a coaching change always revitalizes a team for 1 or 2 games. They went on to finish the season 2-8 ATS when they had mismatches all over the field, especially on their offensive line against good front sevens or their defense in general.
A 5-11 ATS record is likely going to change because the public only remembers the last games/trends and no one expects anything from the Fins. Their lines are going to be adjusted atleast early in the season while being an improved team compared to 2015. Another thing is that the Dolphins are less likely to choke games away and let teams backdoor. When Adam Gase was the OC with the Broncos, Denver went 25-2 SU and 19-8 ATS when having a lead after the third quarter. Their average lines in those games were -9.4 in 2013 and -8.3 in 2014. When leading by atleast one score (> 8 points) after the third, the Broncos went 19-0 SU and 15-5 ATS. They had the ability to close out games on the offensive side, because the Denver defenses weren’t really stout in 2013 and 2014. This is an equal situation with the Dolphins going into 2016, but there is no way they are going to be high favorites, atleast in the first half of the season. So I really expect the Dolphins to finish 9-7 ATS or better. We still have to find the spots.
The Dolphins opened at +7.5 vs. the Seahawks on the road in week one and the spread already got bet up to +8.5 -105 at one of my books. This line is likely going to settle at 9, but maybe it gets pushed close to 10 at some point.
I was always high on Ryan Tannehill, I think he can be a top-10 QB. I guess he was sacked the most times out of all QBs the last four years and he was handcuffed by the coaching staff. You cannot perform well under those circumstances. Lamar Miller is a beast, but Lazor didn’t give him enough touches on first down to make Tannehill’s life easier. I would run a better gameplan on Madden! That’s flat out stupid. Tannehill was one of the most pressured QBs in the league. Last year wasn’t any different as he was sacked 45 times and a new inexperienced coaching staff took over. BUT if you just take a look at Ryan Tannehill individually, you will recognize a lot of things:
-He was highly accurate for a second straight year
-He makes smart decisions
-Only a handful sacks were his fault
-His receivers dropped a lot of passes that lost many yards
-He almost didn’t throw interceptable passes
Ryan Tannehill’s problem is that he gets blamed for a dysfunctional offense. Aaron Rodgers had the exact same situation in 2015 – poor OL play at times and his receivers dropped passes like they were hot coals. They finished as a bottom-10 offense efficiency-wise. No one blamed Aaron Rodgers – why? Because he still made the best out of it and he already has a good reputation, something Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have. On the flip side, Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense get hyped just because Hurns and Robinson made circus catches due to their high receiving radius which didn’t make Bortles look like the QB he was – a bad one.
Let’s compare the 2015 and 2016 offensive lines from Miami:
Branden Albert – didn’t look 100% off his ACL injury. Ja’Wuan James only played 38% of the snaps. His replacement Jason Fox doesn’t have anything to do with an NFL starter. Dallas Thomas was awful, but he was asked to play 99.9% of the snaps in 2015. Billy Turner wasn’t as bad as Dallas Thomas was, but he sucked in a lot of games.
This season – not considering hypothetical injuries – the Fins get Branden Albert back healthy off a full offseason to get back to 100%. At the age of 31, Albert has 2 good years left in the tank. Laremy Tunsil, hands down the best offensive lineman in the draft, will likely play LG next to Albert. Aside from Tunsil, Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey was Tannehill’s lone consistent starter. From C to LT, Tannehill’s blind side will be greatly protected. Ja’Wuan James comes back healthy at RT and on RG they either start Billy Turner, Craig Urbik or Jermon Bushrod. Maybe Bushrod at RT and James at RG.
Anyway, this offensive line will be by far the best Ryan Tannehill has worked with in his career and his receiving corps is full of weapons. If this OL starts the season healthy, it’s going to be a top-10 offense along with the play-calling by Adam Gase.
What does this have to do with being good against the spread?
The Dolphins went 5-11 ATS last season. A lot of that had to do with them being overhyped going into 2015. They started the season 1-3 ATS, opening as favs in all of them. After the coaching change, they answered with 2-0 ATS, because a coaching change always revitalizes a team for 1 or 2 games. They went on to finish the season 2-8 ATS when they had mismatches all over the field, especially on their offensive line against good front sevens or their defense in general.
A 5-11 ATS record is likely going to change because the public only remembers the last games/trends and no one expects anything from the Fins. Their lines are going to be adjusted atleast early in the season while being an improved team compared to 2015. Another thing is that the Dolphins are less likely to choke games away and let teams backdoor. When Adam Gase was the OC with the Broncos, Denver went 25-2 SU and 19-8 ATS when having a lead after the third quarter. Their average lines in those games were -9.4 in 2013 and -8.3 in 2014. When leading by atleast one score (> 8 points) after the third, the Broncos went 19-0 SU and 15-5 ATS. They had the ability to close out games on the offensive side, because the Denver defenses weren’t really stout in 2013 and 2014. This is an equal situation with the Dolphins going into 2016, but there is no way they are going to be high favorites, atleast in the first half of the season. So I really expect the Dolphins to finish 9-7 ATS or better. We still have to find the spots.
The Dolphins opened at +7.5 vs. the Seahawks on the road in week one and the spread already got bet up to +8.5 -105 at one of my books. This line is likely going to settle at 9, but maybe it gets pushed close to 10 at some point.
