Why the Fish are Right to send out Beckett in game 6

[Braveheart]

I see a lot of arguments in this forum saying he should go in game 7 e.t.c blah blah blah

Essentially the only question that needs to be answered is this.

Beckett must pitch in game 6 if the benefit of having Pavano over Redman in game 7 is greater than the loss of having Beckett on short days rest.

I'll use the current pinnacle lines to explain my reasoning.

Game 6, Yankees -174 and Florida +166
Game 7, Yankees -210 and Florida +192

I'll remove the vig so we will have roughly
Game 6, Yankees -170 Florida +170
Game 7, Yankees -200 Florida +200

and the associated probabilities
Game 6, Yankees 63.0% Florida 37.0%
Game 7, Yankees 66.7% Florida 33.3%

As things stand chance of Yankees winning series 0.630 x 0.667 = 42% and Florida of course 58%

Now first we'll deal with the easy part, Josh pitching on 3 days instead of 4 days rest. When I see how effective Beckett was versus the Cubs on 2 days rest, honestly I estimate this to be worth no more than 20 cents it's really not that big of a deal.

Now what about the difference of having Pavano pitch over Redman.

Redman's 4 postseason starts

2 2/3 innings, 4ER
3 innings, 5ER
6 2/3 innings, 2ER
6 innings, 2ER

Pavano
8 innings, 1ER
5 2/3 innings, 2ER

Redman seems to exhibit the characteristics of somebody who is running out of gas where as Pavano who has pitched less innings in October seems to have plenty in the tank.

Now lets make an adjustment of 20 cents for Beckett pitching on full rest by making the line -150/+150 for game 6 instead of -170/+170


Beckett start, Yanks -150 (60%) Florida +150 (40%)

So in game 7 for the Yankees to have an equal chance of winning the series compared to before they must win this game (0.42/ 0.6) = 70% of the time which would equate to a line of -233. So a crude way to compare is to compare the present situation to one where Beckett pitches game 6 and Redman pitches game 7.

So tell me if you were forced to make a bet on Florida for game 7 and had the choice of:

FLORIDA (Redman) +233 vs Yankees (Mussina) -233 vs

or

FLORIDA (Pavano) +210 vs Yankees (Mussina) -210

Which one would it be?

For me no choice for a measly 23 cents I’ll take Pavano who simply dominated the Yanks last time around and even on 3 days rest he won’t have to go deep as Penny can come out the pen on 2 days rest for a couple innings. Rather than Redman who has been lit up his last 2 starts.

Hope this helps

BH

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Brave - good to see you hanging around. You won't have to educate me over IM's now.

As far as what you posted above that is all fine and dandy since it's your opinion. Just like everyone else. Interesting that you plug numbers in to demonstrate how your thinking but still just one man's opinion. I like it though....


>>When I see how effective Beckett was versus the Cubs on 2 days rest, honestly I estimate this to be worth no more than 20 cents it's really not that big of a deal.
<<

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

PS - I disagree completely.

That's what makes it fun though.

 

[FairWarning]

It just seems like the Marlins are putting everything into game 6. There will be a big lift for the Yankees if they win this game and go against Pavano game 7.

 

[timbo37]

Like Braveheart, I agree with the Marlins' decision. I am sorry I don't have numbers and calculations to back up my position, but I am not much of a statistician. McKeon is going for the kill in Game 6. He is not listening to all of the BS about "Game 6, then Game 7." It is refreshing considering how many times I have seen coaches/managers seemingly on a daily basis play "not to lose" or apply a strategy that is simply a CYA measure so they can stay employed.

 

[Jazz]

I've got to say Braveheart has given an awfully long look at this, and I tend to agree with his reasoning, er, OPINION - lol. I also agree that Redman vs. Petitte would seemingly guarantee a Game 7, when all of the pressure would then fall on the inexperienced (though good) Marlins' ace. Redman has not been sharp at all. One other key: can the Marlins produce more than 4 runs in those 2 games (which is what they scored combined in Games 1 & 2), because if they can't, you can serve 'em broiled. Jeter and Williams are hot as hell right now, and if Torre keeps Jeter in the lead-off slot, he's going to put a lot of pressure on the Marlins.

This is one decision I'll say in advance that I will never second-guess McKeon on - if it turns out badly, I won't take back my opinion. And that's a funny thing, too - half the people will be right, the other half wrong, but it's not possible to know until after the game(s) is(are) over - just like Game 5, when Jeter almost tied the game in the 9th and Matsui could easily have doubled in a run to make it 6-5 - they hit that ball awfully hard, it was just caught - but had those balls not been snagged, I shudders to 'tink how many people would have blasted McKeon for keeping that reliever in too long.

 

[Dante]

Braveheart!, nice to see you posting again it has been a LONG time...good luck and welcome back!

 

[THE SHRINK]

Graet post Braveheart and I hope you also believe that the Yankkes are overinflated tonight...

Bet the Marlins!

THE SHRINK

 

[Jazz]

Ahem ... er, ahem, Pat

 

[Chadster]

Beckett is the MVP

 

[Angelle]

Braveheart~
happy to see you posting again