the Bravos continue their home stand on Thursday with a pivotal NL East series matchup against the Nationals. the Bravos are swinging it of late posting a .275 BA/.347 OBP over their L7 games which is above season-average of .265 BA/.334 OBP. Sean Newcomb will toe the slab for Atlanta who is coming off of a short road stint against the Red Sox where he allowed 3 runs through 3 IP on 6 hits, 4 BBs and 4 Ks. Looking deeper into that road start against the high powered Sox offense, there was some positive takeaways for Newcomb as he posted a 9.1% LD%, 27% soft contact% and 18% hard contact% (SA 28%). Major takeaway from that start was that Newcomb saw a FBv jump from 92.9 mph in his previous start to 93.7 mph against the Red Sox (SA 92.8 mph). With the small sample size of just 16 IP at home this year and just 1 HR allowed, this is a trustworthy spot to back the young lefty at home who threw just 88 pitches in his last outing. Tanner Roark will take the ball for the Nationals who has posted a 2.14 era over his last three starts, which did come against the below-averages offenses (on day of start) of the Marlins, Dodgers and DBacks. The room for concern with Roark is that he saw his FBv and CHv drop below SA, with a FBv drop to 90.8 mph. The Bravos have a combined 166 ABs against Roark with a .259 BA/.303 OBP and 6 HRs. In 5 career starts AT Turner Field, Roark has posted a 3.03 era through 38 innings on 33 hits, 26 Ks, 10 BBs and 5 HRs. With the Braves bats playing up over their L7 Days, this is a good spot to fade Roark in his second go around against the Braves this season. With the Nationals making a road to road opener and a 7-11 record against LHP to match 3.6 RPG/.217 BA/.299 OBP, we will back the Bravos tonight.
Play on the Braves at -118
Play on the Braves at -118
