Why should the worst team ats be giving anyone points?

[yanni_gogolak]

SA @ LAC -2 (and rising)
SA 3-6 ats, 4-5 su
LAC 1-8 ats, 1-8 su

:think2:

what we know:
parker and ginobili out. nothing new there. but what is surprising is SA is 3-1 ats w/o parker

clippers healthy. davis and camby have been playing the last 6 together. avg. margin -9.5 pts/gm, ouch!

SA looking better in adjustment to missing players. getting back to what they do best, play defense.
last 4:

the Spurs have scored only 84.3 points per game, but have still won three of four, allowing an average of 81.3 points over that span.


LAC has not yet adjusted to new roster:

The Clippers, meanwhile, shot under 40 percent from the field for the fifth time this season. Still reeling after losing Elton Brand and Corey Maggette to free agency this summer, they rank 29th in the NBA in field goal percentage, making just 41.1 percent of their shots.

what the total tells us:
current line at -2.5, 177
that means that they are expecting LAC to score 89.75 pts. ~90
the last team to put up 90 on SA was MIA on Nov. 7, 10 days and 4 games ago. that same game was the one where parker got hurt and only played 10 mins, something to be said of that

also:

SA won eight straight and 16 of 17 against Los Angeles, holding the Clippers to an average of 83.0 points in seven meetings the last two seasons.</pre>

so, can anyone tell me why i shouldnt bet SA ML?
</pre>

 

[PoppinTags]

1.It looks way too obvious.
2.Back end of a tough back to back, and when I say tough, I mean they had to grind that win out last night, not that they were playing a great team or anything.
3. LAC shooting will turn around here at some point. Camby can neutralize the center and Baron can run the point. Like Al Thornton tonight....
4. I wanna bet the Clips...so you probably should bet the Spurs with the way the last week and a half have been for me!!!

GL either way

 

[finite]

This is 5 games in 7 nights. Duncan's hands shook at the end of last nights game. Up by 2 points with 1.5 seconds left he missed both free throws. This is primarily a very old and depleted line up. They have 1 day off after this game and then have to defend home field vs Denver. They can not keep losing games to playoff contenders but if they put much effort in this game they will be barely able to stand up Wednesday. I believe Duncan plays a max of about 20 miutes today. Just a bad match up facing a strong pg like Baron and 2 opponents for a very tired Duncan like Kaman and Camby.
Meanwhile there is major heat from Clippers management to start getting some wins or see playing time alter. Clippers look like the Lucky side to me but in any case GL

 

[yanni_gogolak]

i dont think the obvious angle holds as much weight as in other sports, football for example.
there are a lot of times it looks obvious and it goes both ways. there are a lot of games to make up the difference.

i think the b2b is the worst factor they have going for them as they are 0-2 on b2b this year.

 

[jordan17]

cuz the books arent dumb...sas +2 sounds too simple, just be careful to what u choose.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

cuz the books arent dumb...sas +2 sounds too simple, just be careful to what u choose.

i think PHO getting pts tonight sounds simple too. im not a great bettor though so i guess you can argue that.

 

[woodsie08]

I agree with you on the "its just too easy" concept. I am on Utah -2 tonight since it sounds like this may signal Harpring, Williams, and Kirilinko are coming back...

As far as the Spurs, the Clippers seem to come up with stupid wins like this when they are home.

 

[PoppinTags]

i think PHO getting pts tonight sounds simple too. im not a great bettor though so i guess you can argue that.

I agree. PHO looks too easy too. IF you play UTAH and LAC tonight you go 1-1 for sure IMO.

 

[Mr_Mark]

spurs are playing back to back games which usually isnt a good sign but its early enough in the season where it hasnt effected anyone yet.

they are away

between camby and kaman they should be able to contain duncan

but its still the spurs vs the clipps

on paper clipps win this match up but they havent been able to play well as a team for 4 qrts yet. and untill they start doin it not puttin any money on them

ml sas looks like a good bet

 

[Mr_Mark]

or maybe take them in a teaser

 

[KennyB]

The clips suck. I will take my chances on S Ant. This is a system type bet for me. I believe last week the Clips were laying 6' at home vs. Sacramento. Sacramento won straight up.

 

[PoppinTags]

but its still the spurs vs the clipps

See this is the mentality that has everyone one the spurs...The Spurs are a shade of the same team as they have previously been and the Clips although not playing like it, are a much better team than previously. Good luck on your selection as this may play out in your favor. Doubt it tho.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

See this is the mentality that has everyone one the spurs...The Spurs are a shade of the same team as they have previously been and the Clips although not playing like it, are a much better team than previously. Good luck on your selection as this may play out in your favor. Doubt it tho.

yes on paper i agree. the spurs are old and w/o two of their best. but we bet to win the game right? the clips have show us no reason to bet on them as they have not improved at all since the beginning of the season. the "older" team in the spurs learned how to adjust to injuries and are 3-1 ats last 4.

 

[PoppinTags]

yes on paper i agree. the spurs are old and w/o two of their best. but we bet to win the game right? the clips have show us no reason to bet on them as they have not improved at all since the beginning of the season. the "older" team in the spurs learned how to adjust to injuries and are 3-1 ats last 4.

Then please tell me why Vegas doesnt have the spurs as short chalk? And the line is going otherways....GL

 

[yanni_gogolak]

Then please tell me why Vegas doesnt have the spurs as short chalk? And the line is going otherways....GL

vegas doesnt win every game, by your logic they would. im not saying that this is the case but have you ever heard of reverse line movement?

 

[Feri]

Cheers yanni! The more I hear about Spurs being this and that the more I like
taking them tonight! Duncan and his "helpers" are just enough imo for these
Clippers. As long as they don't prove else, fading them is my policy! :toast:

 

[SaltyVeteran]

This is 5 games in 7 nights. Duncan's hands shook at the end of last nights game. Up by 2 points with 1.5 seconds left he missed both free throws. This is primarily a very old and depleted line up. They have 1 day off after this game and then have to defend home field vs Denver. They can not keep losing games to playoff contenders but if they put much effort in this game they will be barely able to stand up Wednesday. I believe Duncan plays a max of about 20 miutes today. Just a bad match up facing a strong pg like Baron and 2 opponents for a very tired Duncan like Kaman and Camby.
Meanwhile there is major heat from Clippers management to start getting some wins or see playing time alter. Clippers look like the Lucky side to me but in any case GL

Good take right here. They have the guys to give Duncan fits tonight. Too many games in a weeks span. Like the Clips tonight as well..

 

[PoppinTags]

Good take right here. They have the guys to give Duncan fits tonight. Too many games in a weeks span. Like the Clips tonight as well..

Finally...GL with your selection tonight...ill be on em too

 

[eoghater]

if clips blow them out, then duncan will get his 20 minutes. Otherwise, the big guy is going to see 30+ again tonight. I think Clips come out with a sense of urgency tonight because they'll be embarking on a road trip this week. They need to get some kind of momentum or they could be staring at 2-11 next week. They're too talented to let that happen.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

Good take right here. They have the guys to give Duncan fits tonight. Too many games in a weeks span. Like the Clips tonight as well..

duncan averaged 24 vs kaman last year, and went for 23 twice, 20, and 8 pts in 20 mins vs camby last year. the only testament to the two doing a good job was bynum only getting 9 pts, but he got 17 boards. they are getting killed on the boards even with camby. last 5 they have a -8.9 reb differential. thats huge!