I don't care whether a less than 100% Westbrook plays or not this week, I don't think the impact will be that great. Buckhalter was more than adequate in his place last week; the Eagles had their best rushing game of the year without Westbrook. Sure Westbrook is a threat catching the ball as well, but I wouldn't over-evaluate a running back compared to the system and match ups on the field. Even Mewelde Moore for the Steelers came in as a 3rd stringer and made a big grab to set up the winning FG by Pittsburgh last week.
I think the dominate factor is that Washington has a very good defense. The defense has only given up more than 17 points once this season, last week when Dallas got 24 (the Saints had 17 offensive points and one Reggie Bush punt return td). Yes, Philly has a good defense as well, #1 against the run. Washington's run game has been far better than Philly's. Philly has practically the worst run game in the league right now, and that's not just on yards per game, but yards per run. We all know Philly has been favoring the pass this year, and I have the Redskins with the 4th best pass defense right now. Points are not going to come easy in this game, it's still a great Under bet at 42 even after coming down from the surprisingly soft opening number of 44. The lower the total number of points expected to be scored, the higher the value of the points a live dog is getting -- and say what you want, but the Redskins are a very live dog here, similar to the PIT/BAL game where I had BAL as a live dog in a (projected) lower scoring game.
The Redskins stumbled out of the gate in Week #1 versus a very tough Giants defense, but their running and passing numbers have improved dramatically since then as the offense becomes more familiar with the new offense. The Eagles passing game has cooled off since posting ridiculous numbers versus a horrible Rams' defense in week #1.
There's just way too much lazy water cooler analysis here based on a player who's not a quarterback and trying to figure out who will cover just based on last week's wins or losses. It's a divisional game and you'd have to be brain dead to think that either one of these is not going to prepare hard and give it their all in this game, especially this early in the season when every game is so important for making the playoffs. If you think this line is ridiculous, you are completely out of touch with the reality based on statistics, match ups and the sharp money movements that result.
