MGM is sweating big parlays
Why one Vegas book is nervous tonight; plus, CFB line moves and betting recap
Originally Published: October 6, 2014
<cite class="source"> By David Purdum | ESPN.com</cite>
<cite>Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports</cite>The MGM has some serious parlay liability going into "Monday Night Football."
A wild football weekend full of huge college upsets and stunning NFL comebacks concludes with a Monday night sweat for a handful of bettors at Nevada's largest sports book.
There are two live 12-team parlays that, at 3,000-to-1 odds, could turn a pair of $25 wagers into $75,000 paydays tonight at the MGM. It's all up to Washington, a 7.5-point home underdog to the Seattle Seahawks on "Monday Night Football" (8:30 p.m., ESPN).
"We've also got four eight-teamers live as well," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN. "All of them need the Redskins. We've got some bullets to dodge."
The eight-teamers range from $40 to $70 and pay 190-to-1, Rood said. The MGM sports book handles the largest percentage of betting action in the Nevada market and has certainly faced larger liabilities than tonight's, but it's still a fun ending to an awesome week of football.
The week kicked off with a pair of three-touchdown underdogs winning outright. The Arizona Wildcats went on the road and upset the Oregon Ducks 31-24 Thursday as 21.5-point underdogs. The William Hill sports book took an $11,000 money line bet on Oregon at minus-1800 (1-18), book spokesman Michael Grodsky said. It would have paid about $600.
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Plenty of folks made money on Arizona's upset, though. A bettor at Las Vegas sports book operator CG Technology placed a $2,000 three-leg parlay on Arizona to win straight-up, under 81.5 on the game's total, and under 7.5 runs in Game 1 of the American League Division Series between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. It hit and paid between $50,000 and $60,000, according to CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal.
Big underdogs almost always attract the majority of money line wagers. At William Hill, 93 percent of pregame money line tickets were on underdog Arizona at odds of anywhere from plus-650 to plus-1300.
Utah State followed Arizona's lead and upended BYU 35-20 Friday as a 21-point underdog. Point spread-wise, those are the second- and third-largest upsets of the season. Northwestern State beat Louisiana Tech 30-27 as a 23-point underdog in Week 4.
The upset trend continued into Saturday and produced one of the most lucrative college football weeks of the season for the Westgate SuperBook. Ole Miss was largely responsible. In the hours leading up to the Rebels' home game against Alabama, 12 times more money had been wagered on the Crimson Tide than on Ole Miss at the SuperBook. The Rebels' dramatic 23-17 victory was the biggest win of the day for the book.
"I liked Ole Miss, and the spread was obviously inflated to begin with," said Ed Salmons, SuperBook's head football oddsmaker.
CG Technology said it took so much action on the Ole Miss money line that the book ended up needing Alabama to win outright and took a loss on the game. It was still a winning Saturday for the book, though.
"The amount won on parlays was way above normal," Simbal said.
The story was the same at Caesars Entertainment's sports books, which won big, despite a bettor cashing multiple eight-team parlays at 170-to-1 odds. The bets ranged from $40 to $80 and included one winning card of Georgia Tech, Purdue, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Air Force and Florida, according to David Pemberton, director of specialty games at Caesars Entertainment.
"He was the only big winner yesterday," Pemberton added. "Most of the hotels cleaned up with all the upsets in college football this weekend."
The NFL, however, was not as kind to the books. The Denver Broncos covering the spread in a 41-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals and the San Diego Chargers covering in a 31-0 drubbing of the New York Jets made it a losing day for the SuperBook.
Some of Sunday's late comebacks put a damper on the MGM's day, as well, especially the St. Louis Rams' rally against the Philadelphia Eagles. Rood said multiple respected bettors backed the underdog Rams, who fell behind 34-7 in the third quarter, only to rally with 21 unanswered points to cover.
"The Eagles were one that got away," Rood said. "That late cover by St. Louis took a lot off the table for us. And then the fact that the Buccaneers couldn't hold on [against the New Orleans Saints] -- that was a huge swing."
National Championship odds shake-up
With Alabama's loss, Florida State moved back into the role of national championship favorite at the SuperBook. The Seminoles are 4-1, followed by Auburn at 6-1. Michigan State and Georgia, at 8-1, are the only other two teams with single-digit odds.
Risers
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</tbody>
Fallers
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</tbody>
Early Week 7 college football action
The giant line movements that highlighted the first month of the college football season seem to have dissipated, particularly in this week's biggest matchups.
-- Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State: The Tigers opened as 3-point road favorites at the Wynn and CG Technology. The line ticked up to minus-3.5 Sunday night, but was bet back down quickly to a field goal. Auburn blew out LSU 40-7 Saturday, covering the spread in its 10th straight SEC game.
-- Mississippi at Texas A&M (-2.5): The Aggies opened as 1-point home favorites at CG Technology, but were bet up to minus-2.5 as of Monday.
-- Oregon (-3.5) at UCLA: Two disappointing Pac-12 contenders collide in Los Angeles. The Ducks opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Wynn and were holding steady. CG Technology also opened at Oregon -3.5, but the line was down to minus-3 as of Monday.
Week 7 early line moves
(CG Technology opened its Week 7 college football lines at 2:30 p.m. PT, Sunday.)
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</tbody>
Odds and ends
-- Bad beat: Michigan State, a 7.5-point favorite, took a 27-3 lead over Nebraska into the fourth quarter. De'Mornay Pierson El's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown capped 22 straight points from the Cornhuskers to get within the point spread with three minutes to play. But Sparty wasn't done torturing its backers. After recovering an onside kick, Michigan State drove to the Nebraska 19 to set up a short field goal that would have covered the spread. But kicker Michael Geiger, who had made all three of his attempts from inside 40 yards this season, missed from 36 yards, preventing the Spartans from covering in a 27-22 win.
-- New Jersey sports betting update: The state's response briefs are due Oct. 10 in its battle with the NCAA, NFL and other sports leagues to bring Las Vegas-style sports betting to its struggling racetracks and casinos.
New Jersey State Sen. Raymond Lesniak says his latest bill repealing the state's sports betting prohibitions will be on Gov. Chris Christie's desk by Oct. 16. Oral arguments are slated for Oct. 31 at U.S. District Court in Trenton, New Jersey.
-- No. 1 Florida State ended its nation-long, five-game losing streak against the spread with a 43-3 win over Wake Forest. Connecticut (0-5 ATS) and North Carolina (0-5) are the only teams that have yet to cover the spread this season.
-- Alabama is 3-10 ATS after a straight-up loss under coach Nick Saban.
Why one Vegas book is nervous tonight; plus, CFB line moves and betting recap
Originally Published: October 6, 2014
<cite class="source"> By David Purdum | ESPN.com</cite>
A wild football weekend full of huge college upsets and stunning NFL comebacks concludes with a Monday night sweat for a handful of bettors at Nevada's largest sports book.
There are two live 12-team parlays that, at 3,000-to-1 odds, could turn a pair of $25 wagers into $75,000 paydays tonight at the MGM. It's all up to Washington, a 7.5-point home underdog to the Seattle Seahawks on "Monday Night Football" (8:30 p.m., ESPN).
"We've also got four eight-teamers live as well," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN. "All of them need the Redskins. We've got some bullets to dodge."
The eight-teamers range from $40 to $70 and pay 190-to-1, Rood said. The MGM sports book handles the largest percentage of betting action in the Nevada market and has certainly faced larger liabilities than tonight's, but it's still a fun ending to an awesome week of football.
The week kicked off with a pair of three-touchdown underdogs winning outright. The Arizona Wildcats went on the road and upset the Oregon Ducks 31-24 Thursday as 21.5-point underdogs. The William Hill sports book took an $11,000 money line bet on Oregon at minus-1800 (1-18), book spokesman Michael Grodsky said. It would have paid about $600.
Insider PickCenter
Plenty of folks made money on Arizona's upset, though. A bettor at Las Vegas sports book operator CG Technology placed a $2,000 three-leg parlay on Arizona to win straight-up, under 81.5 on the game's total, and under 7.5 runs in Game 1 of the American League Division Series between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. It hit and paid between $50,000 and $60,000, according to CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal.
Big underdogs almost always attract the majority of money line wagers. At William Hill, 93 percent of pregame money line tickets were on underdog Arizona at odds of anywhere from plus-650 to plus-1300.
Utah State followed Arizona's lead and upended BYU 35-20 Friday as a 21-point underdog. Point spread-wise, those are the second- and third-largest upsets of the season. Northwestern State beat Louisiana Tech 30-27 as a 23-point underdog in Week 4.
The upset trend continued into Saturday and produced one of the most lucrative college football weeks of the season for the Westgate SuperBook. Ole Miss was largely responsible. In the hours leading up to the Rebels' home game against Alabama, 12 times more money had been wagered on the Crimson Tide than on Ole Miss at the SuperBook. The Rebels' dramatic 23-17 victory was the biggest win of the day for the book.
"I liked Ole Miss, and the spread was obviously inflated to begin with," said Ed Salmons, SuperBook's head football oddsmaker.
CG Technology said it took so much action on the Ole Miss money line that the book ended up needing Alabama to win outright and took a loss on the game. It was still a winning Saturday for the book, though.
"The amount won on parlays was way above normal," Simbal said.
The story was the same at Caesars Entertainment's sports books, which won big, despite a bettor cashing multiple eight-team parlays at 170-to-1 odds. The bets ranged from $40 to $80 and included one winning card of Georgia Tech, Purdue, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Colorado State, Air Force and Florida, according to David Pemberton, director of specialty games at Caesars Entertainment.
"He was the only big winner yesterday," Pemberton added. "Most of the hotels cleaned up with all the upsets in college football this weekend."
The NFL, however, was not as kind to the books. The Denver Broncos covering the spread in a 41-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals and the San Diego Chargers covering in a 31-0 drubbing of the New York Jets made it a losing day for the SuperBook.
Some of Sunday's late comebacks put a damper on the MGM's day, as well, especially the St. Louis Rams' rally against the Philadelphia Eagles. Rood said multiple respected bettors backed the underdog Rams, who fell behind 34-7 in the third quarter, only to rally with 21 unanswered points to cover.
"The Eagles were one that got away," Rood said. "That late cover by St. Louis took a lot off the table for us. And then the fact that the Buccaneers couldn't hold on [against the New Orleans Saints] -- that was a huge swing."
National Championship odds shake-up
With Alabama's loss, Florida State moved back into the role of national championship favorite at the SuperBook. The Seminoles are 4-1, followed by Auburn at 6-1. Michigan State and Georgia, at 8-1, are the only other two teams with single-digit odds.
Risers
| Team | Last Week | Oct. 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 6-1 | 4-1 |
| Auburn | 7-1 | 6-1 |
| Michigan State | 15-1 | 8-1 |
| UGA | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| Notre Dame | 30-1 | 10-1 |
| Mississippi | 25-1 | 15-1 |
| Mississippi State | 40-1 | 25-1 |
| TCU | 75-1 | 25-1 |
| Arizona | 200-1 | 50-1 |
| Ohio State | 20-1 | 12-1 |
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</tbody>
Fallers
| Team | Last Week | Oct. 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5-1 | 8-1 |
| Oklahoma | 6-1 | 10-1 |
| Oregon | 8-1 | 20-1 |
| UCLA | 10-1 | 20-1 |
| Texas A&M | 20-1 | 50-1 |
| Southern Cal | 30-1 | 100-1 |
| BYU | 40-1 | 9999-1 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Early Week 7 college football action
The giant line movements that highlighted the first month of the college football season seem to have dissipated, particularly in this week's biggest matchups.
-- Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State: The Tigers opened as 3-point road favorites at the Wynn and CG Technology. The line ticked up to minus-3.5 Sunday night, but was bet back down quickly to a field goal. Auburn blew out LSU 40-7 Saturday, covering the spread in its 10th straight SEC game.
-- Mississippi at Texas A&M (-2.5): The Aggies opened as 1-point home favorites at CG Technology, but were bet up to minus-2.5 as of Monday.
-- Oregon (-3.5) at UCLA: Two disappointing Pac-12 contenders collide in Los Angeles. The Ducks opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Wynn and were holding steady. CG Technology also opened at Oregon -3.5, but the line was down to minus-3 as of Monday.
Week 7 early line moves
(CG Technology opened its Week 7 college football lines at 2:30 p.m. PT, Sunday.)
| Matchup | Opening | Monday |
|---|---|---|
| Rice at Army | Rice -2.5 | Rice PK |
| Miami (OH) at Akron | Akron -11.5 | Akron -14.5 |
| Bowling Green at Ohio | Ohio -2.5 | Ohio PK |
| Houston at Memphis | Memphis -4.5 | Memphis -6.5 |
| Washington at California | Washington -2.5 | Washington PK |
| Louisville at Clemson | Clemson -10 | Clemson -12 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Odds and ends
-- Bad beat: Michigan State, a 7.5-point favorite, took a 27-3 lead over Nebraska into the fourth quarter. De'Mornay Pierson El's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown capped 22 straight points from the Cornhuskers to get within the point spread with three minutes to play. But Sparty wasn't done torturing its backers. After recovering an onside kick, Michigan State drove to the Nebraska 19 to set up a short field goal that would have covered the spread. But kicker Michael Geiger, who had made all three of his attempts from inside 40 yards this season, missed from 36 yards, preventing the Spartans from covering in a 27-22 win.
-- New Jersey sports betting update: The state's response briefs are due Oct. 10 in its battle with the NCAA, NFL and other sports leagues to bring Las Vegas-style sports betting to its struggling racetracks and casinos.
New Jersey State Sen. Raymond Lesniak says his latest bill repealing the state's sports betting prohibitions will be on Gov. Chris Christie's desk by Oct. 16. Oral arguments are slated for Oct. 31 at U.S. District Court in Trenton, New Jersey.
-- No. 1 Florida State ended its nation-long, five-game losing streak against the spread with a 43-3 win over Wake Forest. Connecticut (0-5 ATS) and North Carolina (0-5) are the only teams that have yet to cover the spread this season.
-- Alabama is 3-10 ATS after a straight-up loss under coach Nick Saban.
