I've noticed that it's been a rough go for most everyone through the 1st quarter of this season. Any theories? TV execs are surely getting what they want. After watching the Florida - Tennessee game and the Texas Tech - Texas game, along with the USC - Washington game, I'm realizing that teams are trying to survive every week moreso than at any time. Every game is a trap game nowadays. Even for the giants of the game. Anyways, if anyone has any theories as to the roller coaster ups and downs I'd love to hear why? I realize that we're trying to wager on 18 year olds who simply are still, well, 18 year old kids. Sometimes I wonder why I bet on these kids, but I can answer that question within 1 second. It's the greatest sport on earth to me, and the unkowns of every weekend only make it a better sport to watch and cheer for, though not to wager on. BOL to everyone this coming weekend. May your team win, and your wagers win.
Good observations. I feel like knowledge of the teams as I have experienced them seems more like homerism than just knowledge. Why? Because the changes that are happening under our feet are huge. Sounds more like just fanspeak than anything factual. The changes take a little while to get used to.
Also maybe our old icons aren't as "superhuman" as they have been. New ones have come along that are difficult to accept. There are new players that are having unexpected impact. There are old players that are having coming out years. Some are in retreat. That right there is enough to pull the rug out from a lot of people in what they have become accustomed to thinking in the not-too-distant past... it's irrelevant now, or maybe some of it will kick back in some time soon? I feel like taking a step back and picking my way with extreme caution until things settle out, whatever that may look like. If you think you know what's happening, just wait 2 weeks and see how it's not. That aspect too.
A lot everywhere seems to be changing. And it's going around. I'm not sure where things are happening just as expected or for how long it will remain that way.
Also maybe our old icons aren't as "superhuman" as they have been. New ones have come along that are difficult to accept. There are new players that are having unexpected impact. There are old players that are having coming out years. Some are in retreat. That right there is enough to pull the rug out from a lot of people in what they have become accustomed to thinking in the not-too-distant past... it's irrelevant now, or maybe some of it will kick back in some time soon? I feel like taking a step back and picking my way with extreme caution until things settle out, whatever that may look like. If you think you know what's happening, just wait 2 weeks and see how it's not. That aspect too.
A lot everywhere seems to be changing. And it's going around. I'm not sure where things are happening just as expected or for how long it will remain that way.
One big reason for some big losses.......especially mine......DEFENSE. I've capped some games this year and lost some badly, and some heartbreakers with teams that I know have horrible Offenses and should be outmatched. But guess what.....the Defense shows and up either creates great field position and turnovers for Wins.....or they scratch and claw themselves into the game losing, but covering the spread. Eventually those teams will tire and wear down over the course of the season and I will watch them closely going forward.
There are still some pretenders out there with good Offenses and small defenses with little depth. Arkansas was one of those exposed this weekend. Auburn is another one. I'd rather be in Tennesse's shoes with a good Defense than the other two.
Be Patient and win your money back on those teams at the right times.......
There are still some pretenders out there with good Offenses and small defenses with little depth. Arkansas was one of those exposed this weekend. Auburn is another one. I'd rather be in Tennesse's shoes with a good Defense than the other two.
Be Patient and win your money back on those teams at the right times.......
Very interesting. That is something you don't see talked about a lot on this forum. It's all mainly offensive #'s, statistics, etc. Good point there. One more thing I think I'm going to pay attention to, and that's the public. It is a very good idea to fade the public, until they turn it around, IF they ever turn it around. An example was last night. I was ready to back Texas. I'd written a thread on Texas. I called my bookie as I was walking into the stadium, and out of 458 bets, 450 were on Texas. I knew right there who was covering the spread. I automatically backed Tech. It's the oldest trick in the book. But it never gets old, and it never will. Stick with the books to win long term. Especially on side bets.
i dont think fading the public blindly is a winning system in the long term. Too many variables go into it on each game. Id agree to some extent maybe fading a line thats getting pounded and not moving. + money on a favorite is always an interesting thing to look at for a given game.
as for your bookie, i really wouldnt trust any info you get for a bookie as they could be telling you what they think you want to hear or what they need. If your book was to think ur a square and a follower, they might tell you everyone is on texas hoping you will just follow everyone else or they could truly be looking for some tech backers to even out their wages taken. I think books are shady and locals are even worse
as for your bookie, i really wouldnt trust any info you get for a bookie as they could be telling you what they think you want to hear or what they need. If your book was to think ur a square and a follower, they might tell you everyone is on texas hoping you will just follow everyone else or they could truly be looking for some tech backers to even out their wages taken. I think books are shady and locals are even worse
i also think with college games people talk themselves way too much into things like this play cant lose or no way do they not cover and people start betting above their head. Then if it losses, they start chasing and looking for immediate damage control and start making bets they wouldnt have befored and everything just snowballs
Nah, I can understand how you'd think this, but he's not like that. I've seen the #'s firsthand. He makes so much f'ing cash, it doesn't matter what I win. Besides, he's up on me for the year anyhow. We're golfing buddies. I trust him. The thing that you have to watch out for more is the regional thing. Obviously with him being in Austin he's gonna get tons of action on Texas, so that's what you have to watch out for. But anything over 95% historically hits at a rate of 88% to the opposite. It's like clockwork. Today 95% of his bets were on New England. Well, whatdayaknow??? N.E. took it in the ass. Good dialogue. Keep it up.
