Why is Auburn getting so much hype?

[CoachCB]

Why is Auburn so high in spite of finishing 8-5, losing 11 starters, having a new QB and a new DC? Texas A&M looks to be in much better shape than Auburn. The analysts must either think that Johnson will be as good as Cam Newton, or that the magic duo of Saint Gus and Muschamp will sprinkle fairy dust on their players by virtue of their unparalleled collective genius...


School----------2014 W/L-------# New Starters------New QB?--------New OC-----New DC-----Preseason Rank

Auburn..................8-5.......................11...............Yes.................No.............Yes...................#6
LSU.......................8-5.........................8..............No..................No..............Yes...................#14
Ole Miss................9-4.........................6..............Yes.................No..............No...................#17
Arkansas...............7-6.........................7...............No..................Yes.............No...................#18
Tennessee.............7-6.........................4..............No...................Yes............No....................#25
Texas A&M...........8-5.........................6...............No..................No.............Yes...................#27
Florida..................8-5.......................11................No (Yes?).......Yes............Yes...................#36
USCe.....................7-6.......................10...............Yes..................No.............No (Yes)..........#45+

Texas A&M is in a similar situation. Sumlin is every bit as good an OC/HC as Malzahn. John Chavis arrived at College Station as Muschamp arrived on The Plains. Chavis is certainly in Muschamp's league as a DC. The Aggies have a returning starter at QB. They return more starters on both sides of the ball. Why are the Aggies dismissed while Auburn is getting top 5 love?

I'm not sold on A&M either, I'm just pointing out that Auburn is getting A LOT of hype considering the situation they are in.

Thoughts?


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[Addicted2quack]

Let me jump in here for a second. I'll start by saying I agree with you on the fact that auburn should in no way be receiving this much attention. I believe Johnson is a better overall QB, but slightly less athletic in the running game. This should allow the Gus bus to open up the aerial aspect of his offense a little more, rather than solely throwing off play action. That offense as we all know is predicated and entirely reliant upon the misdirection / read option run game. I truly believe his working knowledge of that offense is above and beyond anyone in the country, even urban Meyer, and I see urban as the most complete coach in The country. With that being said, losing 12 starters and having a different QB taking the snaps as a starter makes things very difficult to predict. They are going up against a very stout SEC schedule with some highly capable offenses. I'm not sold that they challenge the conference for a shot at the title. I see them going 9-3 or even 8-4 during the regular season. The offense should and likely will score points, but to what degree is unknown, and that defense will be pushed to the limit almost every game facing punishing running games as well as fast paced air attacks. Expecting their defense to stop those different offenses on consecutive weekends just because of their new DC is laughable.


If if I look at a team in the top 15 who I expect to compete for a playoff birth I'm looking for returning offensive weapons and defensive line improvements. Having a legit returning QB is always an ace in the hole but it's not entirely necessary, mainly because so many offenses now a days are strictly systems that allow for a lot of plug and play at the QB position. I'm an Oregon fan and I will admit that Oregon's offense is a system offense that can be dulled down for new Qbs and opened up for more seasoned candidates. Many other coaches have similar systems. Auburns offense should become more complex and involve more variables this season because Johnson has a better aptitude, but their defense and skill players don't convince me of a team worthy of contending for a national title.

thats just my opinion for what it's worth.

 

[AcesandFaces]

Reasons Auburn is getting so much hype:

This is Jeremy Johnson's third season in this offense; he's hardly green and should hit the ground running. QB position should be an overall upgrade.

Skill positions are stocked with talent.

OL will take some time to gel (Could get exposed vs. L'ville) but should be fine come game three or four.

Defensive front 7 will be one of the best in the SEC (Carl Lawson will establish himself as the best Defensive player in the SEC IF HE STAYS HEALTHY)

Muschamp at DC is an upgrade over Ellis Johnson

Play OLE MISS, UGA, and BAMA at home.


I'm not advocating for AU here, but the above reasoning is why AU is pre-season #6 and receiving so much hype.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree. The question should be why is Alabama and Georgia getting so much hype. 'Bama has no QB and not much of an offense at all to speak of. Georgia simply cannot win the big games. Saban was destroyed by Ohio State as a huge favorite in last year's Playoffs. 'Bama was a 7 1/2 point favorite over a team that many believed should not have even been in the playoffs to begin with. I believe that 'Bama loses at Georgia and Auburn and that is enough to knock them out of any playoff contention no matter what Alabama homers have to say.

 

[cloverleaf]

Reasons Auburn is getting so much hype:

This is Jeremy Johnson's third season in this offense; he's hardly green and should hit the ground running. QB position should be an overall upgrade.

Skill positions are stocked with talent.

OL will take some time to gel (Could get exposed vs. L'ville) but should be fine come game three or four.

Defensive front 7 will be one of the best in the SEC (Carl Lawson will establish himself as the best Defensive player in the SEC IF HE STAYS HEALTHY)

Muschamp at DC is an upgrade over Ellis Johnson

Play OLE MISS, UGA, and BAMA at home.


I'm not advocating for AU here, but the above reasoning is why AU is pre-season #6 and receiving so much hype.

+1

*May have the best QB in the conference by year's end.
*May have the best WR in the conference by year's end.
*Offensive line top three in the conference.
*Three deep at running back and all will contribute.
*Muschamp best defensive coordinator in the SEC.
*Toughest games at home.

 

[WinOne]

I agree. The question should be why is Alabama and Georgia getting so much hype. 'Bama has no QB and not much of an offense at all to speak of. Georgia simply cannot win the big games. Saban was destroyed by Ohio State as a huge favorite in last year's Playoffs. 'Bama was a 7 1/2 point favorite over a team that many believed should not have even been in the playoffs to begin with. I believe that 'Bama loses at Georgia and Auburn and that is enough to knock them out of any playoff contention no matter what Alabama homers have to say.

BD - Thats my question as well.
Seems like we give Saban and Richt a pass on the whole rebuilding thing. As of today, Bama still has not publicly said who the QB will be. As I told folks last year at time who were on the Jacob Coker bandwagon, if he was THAT good, no way jimbo lets him go without making him sit a year. Coker would have been 3rd on LY FSU roster behind Jameis and the freshman. If he had picked up the offense and shown progress, he would have been announced starter weeks ago. Also, Bama continues to struggle in the secondary, and does not handle spread teams that can throw the ball downfield. And they've not gotten the type of pass rush the last couple of years that they got during their championship years.
With respect to UGa, no offense, but they've not won the EAST in the last two years finishing runner up to Mizzou. Mizzou returns more talent than UGa, and most importantly, they have a guy who has was the returning starter.

Scratching my head on this one fellas.

 

[rolltide]

you guys crack me up acting like coaches never have to deal with first-year starting QB's. so silly

anyway if you want to see how some coaches have done with first year starters ESPN wrote a column about it at http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...y/_/id/13510361/why-qb-history-lsu-notre-dame

Editor's note: Since this article was published, the official CFB QBR values were updated to reflect improvements made to the algorithm. Other than triple-option QBs, changes to a player's QBR were very minimal on the season level - within a point or two or a couple ranking spots either way.
One of the major talking points of this college football offseason has been the number of high-profile teams with some sort of question mark at the quarterback position.
A glance at our ESPN Power Rankings shows eight Top 25 teams -- Auburn, Baylor, Alabama, Oregon, UCLA, Notre Dame, Ole Miss and Boise State -- don't have a QB on the roster with more than two starts at the FBS level (Oregon's Vernon Adams did, however, start three games against FBS teams while playing for FCS Eastern Washington). Throw in Florida State and Georgia, which each avoided the list because of a graduate transfer who previously started at another FBS school -- plus LSU, which seems likely to go with a new starter -- and you have the possibility that more than one-third of the preseason Top 25 could start a quarterback with little experience at the highest level of college football.
Many variables make it difficult to predict which teams are more likely to get that production, but one approach is to look at the head coaches of these teams and how much success they typically have with a first-year starter.
In order to go through this exercise, we need to set a few conditions. One is that the coach -- either as head coach or offensive coordinator -- needs to have had at least three first-year starters in the previous 10 seasons. A first-year starter will be defined as a player who had no more than three career starts entering that season. Also, that quarterback didn't necessarily have to start the season opener, but he must have begun receiving significant snaps in the first month of the season and then went on to start a majority of the team's games.
These conditions eliminate UCLA and Ole Miss, because Jim Mora and Hugh Freeze have each had only one previous first-year starter at the FBS level. Florida State is also eliminated, because Jimbo Fisher has had only two first-year starters in the last 10 years by our definition (EJ Manuel didn't qualify). That leaves us with eight coaches to evaluate, and here's how they stack up, using an average of Total QBR for each season as the gauge for how well their quarterbacks performed. Remember that QBR is on a zero to 100 scale.


1. Nick Saban (Alabama) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 3 Average Total QBR: 77.2
This isn't the guy I was expecting to see at the top of the list when I began the project, but it makes sense when you consider that every QB Saban has had at Alabama has at least been above average, and that his inexperienced QBs were surrounded by so much talent, they weren't asked to make a lot of big plays. More emphasis was placed on making smart plays, which they usually did well. That shows up in QBR, even though it didn't always result in a lot of passing yardage or touchdowns.
Saban's first-year guys were Blake Sims (83.7 QBR), A.J. McCarron (77.0) and Greg McElroy (70.8). But while this season's new starting QB will also be surrounded by a lot of talent, this is somewhat new territory for a first-year starter under Saban in that the other offensive players are also largely inexperienced. Only two starters return on the offensive line, and the top three wideouts from 2014 -- namely Biletnikoff Award winner Amari Cooper -- are all gone. Saban may have a great track record with new QBs, but this should be the toughest test yet for him (and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin).

2. Art Briles (Baylor) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 3 Average Total QBR: 75.2
In his final season as head coach at Houston, Briles tutored a freshman named Case Keenum. A year later, when he began his tenure at Baylor, he had another freshman QB, Robert Griffin III. Those names alone tell you that while Briles may be second to Saban, his guys have been much more statistically prolific.
Keenum's QBR in 2007 was 71.2, and Griffin's was 67.9 in 2008. Nick Florence got a good bit of starting experience while replacing an injured Griffin about a month into the 2009 season, so he didn't qualify as a first-year starter in 2012. Then Briles had Bryce Petty in 2013 with an 86.6 QBR in his first year as a starter. This track record is the main reason why few people expect any dropoff at QB as Seth Russell takes the reins of the high-powered Baylor offense in 2015.

3. Bryan Harsin (Boise State) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 3 Average Total QBR: 71.4
Harsin may not have extensive experience as a head coach, but he did a great job preparing first-year starters as an offensive coordinator at Boise State, namely Kellen Moore. His freshman QBR was 80.6. The previous season, the Broncos had a first-year starter named Taylor Tharp with a respectable 75.5.
After that stint in Boise, Harsin spent a couple of seasons as coordinator at Texas. David Ash became the team's primary starter as a freshman in 2011, but because he was the third starter used that season, he doesn't meet the qualification standard. The final qualifier for Harsin was Adam Kennedy (58.0) at Arkansas State, which was Harsin's first season as a head coach. Now at Boise State, he'll have another first-timer in Ryan Finley, and his production may be the key to the Broncos returning to a New Year's Six bowl game.

4. Mark Richt (Georgia) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 5 Average Total QBR: 69.9
If Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert (nine starts last season) doesn't win the job, Richt will have a QB with little experience. In that case, the good news for Georgia fans would be that Richt's last three first-year starters each had a better QBR than the previous one.
Our QBR data begins in 2004, so we don't have a rating for Richt's first UGA quarterback, David Greene, in 2001. But we do know senior D.J. Shockley had a 75.3 QBR in 2005, and that was followed by a pretty average 50.7 from freshman Matthew Stafford the next season. But since then, Richt has had Joe Cox (68.5), Aaron Murray (73.4) and Hutson Mason (81.7). Continuing this upward trajectory would be difficult, but the new QB won't be the target of opposing defenses with Nick Chubb as a backfield mate.

5. Gus Malzahn (Auburn) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 5 Average Total QBR: 64.6
When you think about Malzahn and quarterbacks, the first two that come to mind are Cam Newton and Nick Marshall, so you'd expect to see Malzahn higher on this list. Two of his other first-year starters are the reason why he's not.
Newton had a robust 89.4 Total QBR in 2010, and Marshall was no slouch either with 81.9 in 2013. And as offensive coordinator at Tulsa in 2008, Malzahn got a respectable 68.3 out of David Johnson. The anchor tied to Malzahn's ankle is the combination of Barrett Trotter (43.5) at Auburn in 2011 and Mitch Mustain (39.7) at Arkansas in 2006.
Sure, it's a little unfair to have your average crushed by a true freshman starting in the SEC (Mustain) nine years ago, but Malzahn has also benefited from having a couple of juco transfers with much more experience than a typical SEC rookie QB. Regardless, most analysts are expecting Jeremy Johnson to be in the Newton/Marshall neighborhood.

6. Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 4 Average Total QBR: 62.9
Kelly has had four first-year starters at three different schools over the previous 10 years, and the results have been relatively consistent. There haven't been any awful performances, but there hasn't been a great one either. So this doesn't project a huge season for Malik Zaire, Kelly's third first-year starter at Notre Dame.
Everett Golson had a 67.2 QBR while leading the Irish to the BCS championship game in 2012, and Dayne Crist had a 57.7 in 2010. (Tommy Rees never met our definition of "first-year starter.") At Cincinnati, Kelly had Tony Pike with a 58.2 QBR in 2008, and in his final season at Central Michigan, freshman Dan LeFevour had a 68.3.

7. Mark Helfrich (Oregon) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 4 Average Total QBR: 62.4
Helfrich is about to have a first-year starter for the first time as a head coach, but he has had four as an offensive coordinator, including Marcus Mariota, who put up a whopping 86.2 QBR as a redshirt freshman. And even though Darron Thomas had "only" a 67.3 in 2010, he did lead Oregon to the national title game that season. What crushes Helfrich is his years as coordinator at Colorado, where he had a 58.3 from Cody Hawkins in 2007 and a 37.6 from Bernard Jackson in 2006.
If Adams becomes the starter for Oregon this season, you can argue whether he should be considered a first-year starter, but regardless, Helfrich has a good track record with new quarterbacks in Eugene.

8. Les Miles (LSU) 1st-year starters last 10 years: 5 Average Total QBR: 51.6
To put it kindly, first-year starting quarterbacks at LSU under Miles, who many people believe will replace incumbent starter Anthony Jennings with sophomore QB Brandon Harris, have been disappointing. His first new starter at QB was Matt Flynn in 2007, who posted a 66.5 QBR while leading LSU to the national title. Since then, it has been all downhill.
In 2008, Jarrett Lee registered a 41.0. The following season, Jordan Jefferson was at 57.8. Zach Mettenberger had a 47.3 QBR in 2012, and last year, Jennings was at 45.2. That's an average Total QBR of 51.6 for the five first-year starting QBs under Miles. When you consider those numbers have been upwardly adjusted by a significant amount because of the quality of defenses LSU typically faces, it underscores the below-average level of play by the Tigers' first-year starters over the last 10 seasons.
In fact, the raw QBR average for those five guys was 41.4, which means that quarterback play at that level results in a team winning its games about 41 percent of the time. The fact LSU went 47-19 (.712) in those seasons speaks to just how much the talent on the rest of the roster helped the team overcome subpar QB play.
Many people think LSU is just a solid quarterback away from being a playoff contender. But while that may be true, for Harris to deliver that type of performance would require a major reversal of this downward trend.

 

[GoSooners]

I think QB's are a little easier to replace in a plug and play offense like an Oregon, Baylor or Auburn. Otherwise you better have an outstanding supporting cast if you want to be playing for championships with a first year QB.

 

[rolltide]

I think QB's are a little easier to replace in a plug and play offense like an Oregon, Baylor or Auburn. Otherwise you better have an outstanding supporting cast if you want to be playing for championships with a first year QB.

far more first-year qb have won titles recently than experiences ones. mcelroy, scam, aj, jameis, barrett/jones

and of course these teams have "an outstanding supporting cast" but needing an experienced qb to win a title isn't necessary at all. not only have 5 of last 6 titles been won by first year qb but notre dame played for a title with one (true or RS frosh, not sure which) as did the barn. you can also toss bama in there as they made semis with a first-year guy LY

gotta be the most overblown thing on this board and college football as a whole....the experienced QB. maybe we all want the RS junior starting for 2nd or 3rd year but those guys aren't winning national championships lately

 

[WinOne]

far more first-year qb have won titles recently than experiences ones. mcelroy, scam, aj, jameis, barrett/jones

and of course these teams have "an outstanding supporting cast" but needing an experienced qb to win a title isn't necessary at all. not only have 5 of last 6 titles been won by first year qb but notre dame played for a title with one (true or RS frosh, not sure which) as did the barn. you can also toss bama in there as they made semis with a first-year guy LY

gotta be the most overblown thing on this board and college football as a whole....the experienced QB. maybe we all want the RS junior starting for 2nd or 3rd year but those guys aren't winning national championships lately

RT/GS
My questioning of the QB's was more in conjunction with what the teams lost at other positions. Folks have been saying for the past 2 years that the Bama secondary was gonna get better, and that they're gonna get a pass rush, and that they are gonna protect the passer better. I've seen those areas of their team regress the past 2 years and they continue to lose talent. Add to that the fact that they don't have a prove signal caller and you lost the best offensive player in WR Cooper. They haven't developed that replacement for him. IMO, he made Simms a good QB last year knowing that he could beat coverage anytime he wanted and that defenses had to overplay him which would make the defense vulnerable to the run or when Bama went to other players. But atleast they've won the SEC. Georgia is completely different. They've not even won the EAST, let alone the SEC. That honor belongs to Mizzou who returns a pretty good leader at QB. All Mizzou does is win and they get no respect at all.
My .02cents

 

[cloverleaf]

Interesting stat on Auburn.

The Tigers haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999. They play at LSU on September 19.

Huge game for both teams...it is an afternoon game. Hard to beat LSU at night.

 

[StevieRay]

Auburn will have to out score to win, their defense will have a few holes and little depth in secondary. it got toasted muchos last yr

 

[cloverleaf]

Auburn will have to out score to win, their defense will have a few holes and little depth in secondary. it got toasted muchos last yr

Stevie, you could be right. That's why they are paying Will Muschamp $1.6 million to fix last year's problems. Getting the transfers from Michigan and Georgia will help the secondary. Both will start.

 

[groundhog11]

Give that defense a couple extra weeks to get caught before conference play will help..

 

[CoachCB]

What I'm reading from most here is that they expect the QB to be better than last year, even though he's made 1 career start. If that's the case, then so be it. But look at the chart I posted and tell me why isn't Texas A&M getting the same hype? Or LSU for that matter?

Stevie, you could be right. That's why they are paying Will Muschamp $1.6 million to fix last year's problems. Getting the transfers from Michigan and Georgia will help the secondary. Both will start.

Will Muschamp is the most overrated Defensive Coordinator in CFB. Sure, he's good....but he's been good because he's had talent. Auburn's D would have been improved this year w/ ANY DC because they are 1 year more mature. I'm sick of people acting like Muschamp is some sort of savior. What did he do at Texas his last year? He's a good DC, but there are plenty of others as good. Also, his attitude doesn't go over real well w/ some kids...go read Brian Cowart's quotes (the 5-star DE he stole from UF when he went to Auburn).

 

[DeadLast]

Auburn will have to out score to win, their defense will have a few holes and little depth in secondary. it got toasted muchos last yr

I don't think last years results are relevant. Ellis Johnson is gone as are most of his staff. While you are right about depth being a concern in the secondary, there is a lot of optimism for this group. Countess, an all Big10 selection, is a grad transfer who will start at one corner. J. Jones (a preseason 1st team all conference selection) will start at the other. J. Holsey will also see lots of action. He is decent and has tons of experience. The safeties will be Matthews (transfer who sat out last year after starting as a true freshman at Ga) and Ford (fasted player on D with a years experience). While there is little experience behind this group, there is a lot of young talent.

Also, the secondary should be aided by a solid pass rush in 2015 - something missing in 2014 with Lawson sitting out the season. Muschamp said yesterday Cowart would play - a lot. Opposing teams won't have the luxury of double teaming Adams in the middle every passing situation like they did last year with these two on the field.

There are still question marks with the LB and DT positions, but I'll be shocked if there aren't marked improvements from last year. I don't expect AU to put a top 10 D on the field this year, but I don't think they are going to have to score a million like in 2014 to win either. Muschamp's schemes, new faces on the field, and improved intensity should make the 2015 D a completely different animal than the crap E Johnson fielded last year.

 

[CoachCB]

Bump....

Thought I'd revisit this today.

Muschamp = OVER - FUCKING - RATED

 

[CoachCB]

Bump again....

 

[CoachCB]

Interesting stat on Auburn.

The Tigers haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999. They play at LSU on September 19.

Huge game for both teams...it is an afternoon game. Hard to beat LSU at night.

They still haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999.....

I love this! Fucking Will Muschamp getting paid $1.6 million to coach a college defense. It's absurd.....

Not sure why they got all the pre-season hype. Look at the original post here. It's broken down for everyone. They lost too many starters to be contenders. Too many people thought Johnson was going to be another Cam Newton.

 

[SundayTiger]

What is disappointing about Auburn is the offense. The defense has not been that bad. It's painful watching Gus Malzahn struggle. I had so much respect for his ability to coach the offensive side of the ball. I think they'll improve as the year goes on but it's going to be tough to watch at times.