You couldnt be further from the truth.
I will give you three rules and you will NEVER lose again in the NFL longterm. Listen very carefully, because I only state this once a year.
1. NEVER lay over -3
2. Shop for the best possible line
3. Make sure the team your wagering AGAINST is a top 6 John Q. Public play for the week.
These rules will hit you 55-60% in the NFL for your lifetime. Make the game simple. Good luck.
I will give you three rules and you will NEVER lose again in the NFL longterm. Listen very carefully, because I only state this once a year.
1. NEVER lay over -3
2. Shop for the best possible line
3. Make sure the team your wagering AGAINST is a top 6 John Q. Public play for the week.
These rules will hit you 55-60% in the NFL for your lifetime. Make the game simple. Good luck.
Fish is right...cases in point:
1. Ask the Rams (Bulger you blunderhead!)
2. Imagine if you got the Bucs at -5.5 and the Giants at +6.5 last night...which at least a few people I know did (NOT ME...I stayed far, far away from that train wreck of a game).
3. Denver and Miami!
sb
1. Ask the Rams (Bulger you blunderhead!)
2. Imagine if you got the Bucs at -5.5 and the Giants at +6.5 last night...which at least a few people I know did (NOT ME...I stayed far, far away from that train wreck of a game).
3. Denver and Miami!
sb
Personally I have done quite well in NFL and there are others that have also.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> NFL data has to be the most analyzed data in the world. Where's the edge? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Agreed data and games are overanalyzed. However, that can present opportunities in itself, when faulty methods of analysis are used. Bettors tend to extrapolate data when they shouldn't, and also factor in variables that cannot be used with any accuracy. If you can identify faulty analysis methods that were used in making the line, again you have an edge.
A HUGE advantage of NFL is the amount of "square action". Most Joe Citizen-type bettors will bet only NFL. Thus, there's a public bias in the lines and opportunity for value. This is of course over represented in the playoffs, but can be found to a lesser extent every week.
To touch back on over analysis - most "public" bettors are getting there information from newspaper boxscores, ESPN, SI, and "TV-games". There are a lot of things happening on Sunday that are glossed over or omitted by these sources and thus not factored in.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> NFL data has to be the most analyzed data in the world. Where's the edge? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Agreed data and games are overanalyzed. However, that can present opportunities in itself, when faulty methods of analysis are used. Bettors tend to extrapolate data when they shouldn't, and also factor in variables that cannot be used with any accuracy. If you can identify faulty analysis methods that were used in making the line, again you have an edge.
A HUGE advantage of NFL is the amount of "square action". Most Joe Citizen-type bettors will bet only NFL. Thus, there's a public bias in the lines and opportunity for value. This is of course over represented in the playoffs, but can be found to a lesser extent every week.
To touch back on over analysis - most "public" bettors are getting there information from newspaper boxscores, ESPN, SI, and "TV-games". There are a lot of things happening on Sunday that are glossed over or omitted by these sources and thus not factored in.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sportsbet:
Imagine if you got the Bucs at -5.5 and the Giants at +6.5 last night...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
If you keep having middles like that, you will lose a lot more than you will ever hope for, Sportsbet. Despite it winning last night, that is a horrible middle opportunity that will put you in the poorhouse. I hope no one is playing those type of middle opportunities here. 6 is not a common number at all.
Imagine if you got the Bucs at -5.5 and the Giants at +6.5 last night...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
If you keep having middles like that, you will lose a lot more than you will ever hope for, Sportsbet. Despite it winning last night, that is a horrible middle opportunity that will put you in the poorhouse. I hope no one is playing those type of middle opportunities here. 6 is not a common number at all.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
hanover,
There is huge value in the NFL playoffs. Check the NFL forum in the post-season and you will see what I mean.
Big Lou<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I do not understand why you think there is only value to be found in the playoffs. There is tremendous value throughout the season.
In the playoffs there will be 13 games. Each of these games everyone will know everything about the game. The linesmaker will have every angle of the game covered, hence the lines are sharp. The same can be said for any isolated game, such as MNF.
Yet during the season you have 255 games to choose from. If you are selective and understand what you are doing there is much value to be found.
hanover,
There is huge value in the NFL playoffs. Check the NFL forum in the post-season and you will see what I mean.
Big Lou<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I do not understand why you think there is only value to be found in the playoffs. There is tremendous value throughout the season.
In the playoffs there will be 13 games. Each of these games everyone will know everything about the game. The linesmaker will have every angle of the game covered, hence the lines are sharp. The same can be said for any isolated game, such as MNF.
Yet during the season you have 255 games to choose from. If you are selective and understand what you are doing there is much value to be found.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by STRUT888/FISHHEAD:
Do you bet the Colts every week General?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have not bet on the Colts once this season. I wagered against when they played the Jets. No homer bets here
Do you bet the Colts every week General?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have not bet on the Colts once this season. I wagered against when they played the Jets. No homer bets here
