Why betting Cleveland-2.5 games is much smarter than Cleveland-1.5 games

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Currently at 5 Dimes Clevleland-1.5 games is -162. Cleveland-2.5 games is +113.

Let's break it down. The key game in laying 2.5 games is game 5. Cleveland would be home that game up 3-1 if this play wager is still in play. Cleveland would be a 10 point favorite and you could even hedge it out with Orlando on a roughly+400 underdog.

If you lay 1.5 game you have to lay a hefty -162. If it get to the key game in the series, game 6 would be in Orlando. Cleveland would most likely be a small favorite, but not as prohibitive as game 5.

Bottom line you get a huge favorite in the key game plus a nice small comeback in the plus column to boot. How many times does a team in a series come home up 3-1 in game 5 in a 2-2-1-1-1 format and lose? Much less than a team does leading 3-2 heading on the road in game 6.
 

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