Why "beating the closing number" works

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm getting tired of people saying "you should only play 2-3 games per day" or "beating the closing number doesn't work" so I need to address this.

Lets examine the NFL. There have been 5070 games ATS since 1989, recorded on SportsDatabase. Below is the table examining the frequency of the ATS margin.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 185pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="246"><col style="width: 64pt;" width="85"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <col style="width: 60pt;" width="80"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt; width: 64pt;" height="20" width="85">ATS MARGIN</td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 61pt;" width="81"># OF GAMES</td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 60pt;" width="80">FREQUENCY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0</td> <td class="xl63">278</td> <td class="xl64">5.48%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">0.5</td> <td class="xl63">162</td> <td class="xl64">3.20%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">1</td> <td class="xl63">184</td> <td class="xl64">3.63%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">1.5</td> <td class="xl63">119</td> <td class="xl64">2.35%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2</td> <td class="xl63">160</td> <td class="xl64">3.16%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2.5</td> <td class="xl63">124</td> <td class="xl64">2.45%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">3</td> <td class="xl63">166</td> <td class="xl64">3.27%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">3.5</td> <td class="xl63">97</td> <td class="xl64">1.91%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4</td> <td class="xl63">196</td> <td class="xl64">3.87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">4.5</td> <td class="xl63">115</td> <td class="xl64">2.27%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5</td> <td class="xl63">155</td> <td class="xl64">3.06%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">5.5</td> <td class="xl63">112</td> <td class="xl64">2.21%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6</td> <td class="xl63">182</td> <td class="xl64">3.59%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">6.5</td> <td class="xl63">117</td> <td class="xl64">2.31%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7</td> <td class="xl63">160</td> <td class="xl64">3.16%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">7.5</td> <td class="xl63">120</td> <td class="xl64">2.37%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">8</td> <td class="xl63">124</td> <td class="xl64">2.45%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">8.5</td> <td class="xl63">97</td> <td class="xl64">1.91%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">9</td> <td class="xl63">119</td> <td class="xl64">2.35%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">9.5</td> <td class="xl63">100</td> <td class="xl64">1.97%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">10</td> <td class="xl63">170</td> <td class="xl64">3.35%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">10.5</td> <td class="xl63">100</td> <td class="xl64">1.97%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">11</td> <td class="xl63">125</td> <td class="xl64">2.47%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">11.5</td> <td class="xl63">62</td> <td class="xl64">1.22%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">12</td> <td class="xl63">102</td> <td class="xl64">2.01%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">12.5</td> <td class="xl63">55</td> <td class="xl64">1.08%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">13</td> <td class="xl63">89</td> <td class="xl64">1.76%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">13.5</td> <td class="xl63">65</td> <td class="xl64">1.28%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">14</td> <td class="xl63">95</td> <td class="xl64">1.87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">14.5</td> <td class="xl63">64</td> <td class="xl64">1.26%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">15</td> <td class="xl63">78</td> <td class="xl64">1.54%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">15.5</td> <td class="xl63">44</td> <td class="xl64">0.87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">16</td> <td class="xl63">66</td> <td class="xl64">1.30%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">16.5</td> <td class="xl63">45</td> <td class="xl64">0.89%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">17</td> <td class="xl63">81</td> <td class="xl64">1.60%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">17.5</td> <td class="xl63">47</td> <td class="xl64">0.93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">18</td> <td class="xl63">69</td> <td class="xl64">1.36%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">18.5</td> <td class="xl63">33</td> <td class="xl64">0.65%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">19</td> <td class="xl63">47</td> <td class="xl64">0.93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">19.5</td> <td class="xl63">47</td> <td class="xl64">0.93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">20</td> <td class="xl63">57</td> <td class="xl64">1.12%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">20.5</td> <td class="xl63">49</td> <td class="xl64">0.97%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">21</td> <td class="xl63">58</td> <td class="xl64">1.14%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">21.5</td> <td class="xl63">31</td> <td class="xl64">0.61%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">22</td> <td class="xl63">44</td> <td class="xl64">0.87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">22.5</td> <td class="xl63">22</td> <td class="xl64">0.43%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">23</td> <td class="xl63">34</td> <td class="xl64">0.67%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">23.5</td> <td class="xl63">19</td> <td class="xl64">0.37%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">24</td> <td class="xl63">39</td> <td class="xl64">0.77%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">24.5</td> <td class="xl63">22</td> <td class="xl64">0.43%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">25</td> <td class="xl63">26</td> <td class="xl64">0.51%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">25.5</td> <td class="xl63">22</td> <td class="xl64">0.43%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">26</td> <td class="xl63">27</td> <td class="xl64">0.53%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">26.5</td> <td class="xl63">23</td> <td class="xl64">0.45%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">27</td> <td class="xl63">25</td> <td class="xl64">0.49%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">27.5</td> <td class="xl63">18</td> <td class="xl64">0.36%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">28</td> <td class="xl63">20</td> <td class="xl64">0.39%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">28.5</td> <td class="xl63">8</td> <td class="xl64">0.16%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">29</td> <td class="xl63">18</td> <td class="xl64">0.36%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">29.5</td> <td class="xl63">17</td> <td class="xl64">0.34%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">30</td> <td class="xl63">14</td> <td class="xl64">0.28%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">30.5</td> <td class="xl63">8</td> <td class="xl64">0.16%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">31</td> <td class="xl63">12</td> <td class="xl64">0.24%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">31.5</td> <td class="xl63">8</td> <td class="xl64">0.16%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">32</td> <td class="xl63">7</td> <td class="xl64">0.14%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">32.5</td> <td class="xl63">5</td> <td class="xl64">0.10%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">33</td> <td class="xl63">6</td> <td class="xl64">0.12%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">33.5</td> <td class="xl63">5</td> <td class="xl64">0.10%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">34</td> <td class="xl63">9</td> <td class="xl64">0.18%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">34.5</td> <td class="xl63">3</td> <td class="xl64">0.06%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">35</td> <td class="xl63">7</td> <td class="xl64">0.14%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">35.5</td> <td class="xl63">3</td> <td class="xl64">0.06%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">36</td> <td class="xl63">2</td> <td class="xl64">0.04%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">36.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">37</td> <td class="xl63">3</td> <td class="xl64">0.06%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">37.5</td> <td class="xl63">3</td> <td class="xl64">0.06%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">38</td> <td class="xl63">7</td> <td class="xl64">0.14%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">38.5</td> <td class="xl63">2</td> <td class="xl64">0.04%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">39</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">39.5</td> <td class="xl63">2</td> <td class="xl64">0.04%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">40</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">40.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">41.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">42.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">43</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">44</td> <td class="xl63">2</td> <td class="xl64">0.04%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">44.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">45.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">46</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">49</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">50.5</td> <td class="xl63">1</td> <td class="xl64">0.02%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Now, consider the 110/100 odds format of every book but a few. To win at those odds, you need to hit at a 52.38% clip. Not new news to most.

Let's assume your strategy for the NFL is to simply take all home teams. You play every game. Your record is 2391-2401-139 (the total # of games here is 4931, not equivalent to the 5070 data earlier - database may have errors). Your winning percentage is 49.89% and you're down $25,010.

Now lets say every one of your games you beat the closing number by 0.5 points. 2.74% of your losers are now winners (66 games). Now you're hitting 51.27%. You're still down $11,150, but that's half the amount you were down, simply by beating the number by 0.5 points. If you shop for lines you can do this easily.

Next we assume you win by 1 point. 4.3% of your losses are now winners. Your new record is 2599-2193, or 54.23%. You're up $18,670.

Will you have a winning card every game, day, week, month, or season by doing this? No. The good gamblers understand that they will lose. They have a bankroll and they are prepared for this.

There is only ONE type of bettor that professional books want absolutely no part of - and that's a steam bettor. Why do books hate steam bettors? Because they are 1 point or more better than the books on every play. Long term, they are winners. You steam bet, you bet bad lines (+EV bets), and your account will be closed.

Now, I mentioned +EV bets. Some people don't understand this. +EV is positive expected value. The expected value for a game is the no-vig line for the game. Don't know what expected value is, as you haven't taken a statistics class? Google it.

For sports with spreads, the EV is +100 on every game. For moneylines, it's the median between the two lines. The EV on a +280/-320 baseball game is 300. To have a +EV bet, you need to get a +301 or -299 line.

I experimented with this in Baseball for a time this year - tracking it and seeing how it works. I used Matchbook as my EV line and whenever a book had a better number than Matchbook, I played it.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 485px; height: 344px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 69pt;" width="92"> <col style="width: 21pt;" span="2" width="28"> <col style="width: 61pt;" width="81"> <col style="width: 38pt;" width="50"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt; width: 69pt;" align="left" height="20" width="92">eHorseX</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">101</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">69</td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 61pt;" align="left" width="81"> $ 1,998.00 </td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 38pt;" align="left" width="50">11.8%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Bodog</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">66</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">82</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ (388.00)</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">-2.6%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">WagerStreet</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">64</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">69</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 730.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">5.5%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">bet365</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">52</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">46</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 1,447.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">14.8%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">BetJamaica</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">46</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">46</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 600.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">6.5%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">RebateWager</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">40</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">43</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 517.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">6.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Pinnacle</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">44</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">23</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 2,131.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">31.8%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">ABCIslands</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">30</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">34</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ (48.00)</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">-0.8%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">BetPhoenix</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">29</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">28</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 484.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">8.5%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">WSEX</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">34</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">20</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 1,686.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">31.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Diamond</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">22</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">24</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ (52.00)</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">-1.1%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Sportbet</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">23</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">20</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 482.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">11.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">5Dimes</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">20</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">10</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 1,000.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">33.3%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Bookmaker</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">15</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">11</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 880.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">33.8%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">LasPalmas</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">15</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">10</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 348.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">13.9%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Intertops</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">11</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">12</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ (245.00)</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">-10.7%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Justbet</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">16</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">5</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 1,138.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">54.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">BetUS</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">4</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">10</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ (605.00)</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">-43.2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">TheGreek</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">8</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">4</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 295.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">24.6%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Canbet</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">4</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">3</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 140.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">20.0%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Legendz</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">3</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">1</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 160.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">40.0%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">BetOnline</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">1</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">0</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 200.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">200.0%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">
</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">
</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">
</td> <td class="xl67" align="left">
</td> <td class="xl66" align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Overall</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">648</td> <td class="xl65" align="left">570</td> <td class="xl67" align="left"> $ 12,898.00 </td> <td class="xl66" align="left">10.6%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
On average, there was a 10.6% ROI on every bet you place. I didn't track the average amount I beat the EV number by, but I would assume it was near .10.

Books don't want any part of +EV action. I started betting at WagerStreet shortly after experimenting with these results, as they had some of the lines with the largest differential. After 3 bets, I was limited to $20 per game.

So let me just state, if you beat the closing number, if you place a +EV wager, you WILL make money in the long run. This isn't debatable.

 

[bigtendominator]

Don't worry about what others say or do.

All you need to know is there were at least half a dozen people asking why did the Packers go for 2? You are trying convince people of an argument, when they can't even figure out when to go for 2, trust me they aren't going to understand your pov here.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Very very good post Hoosiers. Enjoyed reading this as I understood this but throughout a season of betting you need to come back to this on your cold runs to make sure that everything is going to fall into place in the long run.

 

[onemwtheone]

1/2 point in a basketball game is worth about 1.9%
1/2 point in a basketball game (totals) is worth about 1.2%
etc...


I've found it matters not a bit how you beat the closing line (early, just before kick off/tip off, etc), just that you get the better number. Very profitable.

 

[trytrytry]

these numbers seem too low are you sure on this? I though 3 in the NFL was close to 5% of all games...

2.5 124 2.45%
3 166 3.27%
3.5 97 1.91%

 

[trytrytry]

i might suggest beat the closing number by 1/2 point using reduced juice is a formula for success..but not at -110 lines as your numbers indicate, unless you beat a key number like 3 or 7 then its golden.....also its not always easy to know if you beat or missed the closing line...if its 9 1/2 or 9 at most shops one guy betting +9 1/2 will say he beat the closing and the other guy betting -9 will claim he beat the closing line..so you have to be a bit careful its not quite cut and dry....and beating the closing number around key numbers is much better than beating a dead number by 1/2 point..which you could prob calculate with all this data you have...Good read, thanks..

 

[TomGshotput]

these numbers seem too low are you sure on this? I though 3 in the NFL was close to 5% of all games...

2.5 124 2.45%
3 166 3.27%
3.5 97 1.91%

How often do you think NFL games land on 3.5? (Hint: It's zero)

Good stuff hoosiers

 

[letsgohoosiers]

these numbers seem too low are you sure on this? I though 3 in the NFL was close to 5% of all games...

2.5 124 2.45%
3 166 3.27%
3.5 97 1.91%

ATS MARGIN is how a team performs ATS. A value of 0 means the spread pushed. 0.5 means they beat the spread by 0.5 (i.e. a team wins by 3 when favored by 2.5).

 

[Joedogs]

Interesting post,just goes to show what a game of inches it really is.This makes a good case for line shopping and having multiple books at your disposal.

 

[bellyputter]

The first two weeks of college football, I have made 16 early wagers(sides @ -110) that have beat the closing line by 3.4 points. I am 3-13. I have made 11 early wagers(@ -110) on totals that have beat the closers by 5.7 points. I am 10-1. And people wonder why you can't wager much on totals? All my success so far has been wagering into peak #s at -05. Good Luck

 

[bellyputter]

The first two weeks of college football, I have made 16 early wagers(sides @ -110) that have beat the closing line by 3.4 points. I am 3-13. I have made 11 early wagers(@ -110) on totals that have beat the closers by 5.7 points. I am 10-1. And people wonder why you can't wager much on totals? All my success so far has been wagering into peak #s at -05. Good Luck

I actually tied(Minny-Syracuse) one game(17 early side wagers), which is profitable.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

The first two weeks of college football, I have made 16 early wagers(sides @ -110) that have beat the closing line by 3.4 points. I am 3-13. I have made 11 early wagers(@ -110) on totals that have beat the closers by 5.7 points. I am 10-1. And people wonder why you can't wager much on totals? All my success so far has been wagering into peak #s at -05. Good Luck

you wouldnt buy back in that situation ?

 

[Iceman]

The "right" side has been more wrong then right so far this year in CFB. With that said in the long run you will win if you beat the closing line.

 

[bellyputter]

you wouldnt buy back in that situation ?

Certainly! d1g1t

 

[GOLFINGMAUMELLE]

Are you saying you should bet plus money favorites??

 

[HerzvanRentle]

Around 18% of your profit is with ehorsex & las palmas; have you managed to recover any of it?

 

[jwunderdog]

If you could get a half point on all 5070 games then I think you may be right? If you took all the games lined at 3 out. What would be your outcome then? My guess is a very high % of the 278 games that hit the # the line was 3. Problem is 3 is the hardest # to get the extra 1/2 point on.

 

[CapNCash]

the problem is its hard to beat closing number, or know what it will be

 

[Doug]

these numbers seem too low are you sure on this? I though 3 in the NFL was close to 5% of all games...

2.5 124 2.45%
3 166 3.27%
3.5 97 1.91%

I thought it was more like 10%, without looking it up. As in about 10% of NFL games are won by 3 points.

 

[patswin]

I thought it was more like 10%, without looking it up. As in about 10% of NFL games are won by 3 points.

yeah that's what I remember too 9-10% for the 3 in NFL only