Why Are The Falcons Getting So Much Love?

[dotcomceo]

1) Their rally was cancelled today in houston bc of lack of fans, looking like tomorrow is gonna be a pats home game

2) Falcons have a bottom 5 defense statistically vs a very good QB

3) Falcons have tons of young guys starting on their D

4) Pats are 12-1 since brady returned and only 1 of those wins was by less than 7 and that was jets bc brady kneeled at the 1

5) Pats have 2 weeks to prepare and bill has shown he does well with that

Im just lost at why falcons are +3?

 

[halekulani]

bet dsi
+3.5 is -135
+3 is +100

-3 is -120
-2.5 is -155

the line is 3 because books don't want to budge off of it
if it were any regular season game, the line would have moved.

 

[cashflow50]

Atlanta? So much love? The whole freaking world is on the pats

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Belichick with 2+ weeks rest ...


Week One: 13-4 (8-9 ATS)

Regular Season bye: 12-6 (9-9 ATS)

Playoffs: 13-3 (7-8-1 ATS)

Total: 38-13 (24-26-1 ATS)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Atlanta? So much love? The whole freaking world is on the pats

Pinnacle ... Updated



Spread
Patriots (-3) 77%
Falcons (+3) 23%

ML
Patriots 46%
Falcons 54%

Total (58.5)
Over 68%
Under 32%

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Top Bet ‏... UPDATED 4:30PM EST


68% of cash ... 71% of bets on Patriots -3


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MGM Race and Sports ...


"We're back to about 60% Pats money,"

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Sports Insights ...


Ticket Count: 66,466

66% of spread bets on New England

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LV SuperBook ...


57% of bets ... 69% of money on the Patriots

 

[StevieRay]

Falcons aren't the Jets

 

[Willie99]

Belichick with 2+ weeks rest ...


Week One: 13-4 (8-9 ATS)

Regular Season bye: 12-6 (9-9 ATS)

Playoffs: 13-3 (7-8-1 ATS)

Total: 38-13 (24-26-1 ATS)

Pats haven't been good ATS in the playoffs, but they're rarely laying such a short number

and they are 2-0 this year, 1-0 with two weeks rest

 

[dotcomceo]

texans had the best D in the NFL and Brady still scored 34 on them, what makes you think he scores less on the falcons?

 

[halekulani]

idk man
why did brady lose twice to eli manning? eli is inferior in about every possible way.

some things just can't be explained based on past performances
that's why they play the superbowl and don't write out the winners based on paper

 

[dotcomceo]

yea but those were very good defenses. Look back at Brady's playoff losses: ravens,broncos,giants.....The only teams that beat brady are teams with amazing defenses, the falcons arent that

 

[Willie99]

idk man
why did brady lose twice to eli manning? eli is inferior in about every possible way.

some things just can't be explained based on past performances
that's why they play the superbowl and don't write out the winners based on paper

the Giants had amazing defenses that got hot at the right time, and they were great at pressuring the QB too

Atlanta can obviously win this game, they have a path, but it's not with their defense

I think Atlanta may have to win the highest score game in SB history, I think that's their path

 

[bones1980]

texans had the best D in the NFL and Brady still scored 34 on them, what makes you think he scores less on the falcons?

That pats D will be on the field a lot ! If Houston had a good Offense they would've beat pats ! Atl has a great offense!

 

[bigwang]

That pats D will be on the field a lot ! If Houston had a good Offense they would've beat pats ! Atl has a great offense!

ointer:
Get the fuck outta here with Houston beating pats.

 

[3pointdog]

texans had the best D in the NFL and Brady still scored 34 on them, what makes you think he scores less on the falcons?

they scored 34 because the Texans QB kept turning the ball over..

 

[X-Files]

yea but those were very good defenses. Look back at Brady's playoff losses: ravens,broncos,giants.....The only teams that beat brady are teams with amazing defenses, the falcons arent that

The Colts with a lousy D & Peyton Manning beat NE.

NE beat the Rams in the SB due to a D much better than the one they have now.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

texans had the best D in the NFL and Brady still scored 34 on them, what makes you think he scores less on the falcons?

Texans were not the best D in the NFL.

 

[chonce]

I think 3 is a bad line though I can see why the books don't want to get middled by shoppers. Bob Scucci said the two-way action isn't too bad -- public mostly on Pats but because ATL is scoring so much and so many people hate the Pats, some Falcons money from "squares." Sharps (Again, these terms need to be renamed after this year) are more on Falcon, but the he said the UNDER may have as much liability than anything else because of the good two-way action.

I like NE. The forum is split, but the Falcons supporters seem to post more stuff like "why ATL will roll over NE's shitty defense" (which is the #1 scoring defense).

I feel pretty good about NE, UNDER (though I took first half under,fwiw) and one prop so far (Bryant FG's made over 1.5 (-130)

 

[chonce]

Texans were not the best D in the NFL.

It depends on the metric used. They were the # 1 defense in terms of yards allowed. NE is #1 w Points allowed. Advanced statisticians, such as Football Outsiders, have more complex metrics. But traditionally the media usually considers yardage when they announce a ranking, only adding a qualifier if it is "scoring." Not saying that is the best approach. I don't know why yardage is more important than points.

As far as the stuff done by Football Outsiders, I just don't know enough about stats, or their methodologies to know how much I should trust them.

 

[halekulani]

yea but those were very good defenses. Look back at Brady's playoff losses: ravens,broncos,giants.....The only teams that beat brady are teams with amazing defenses, the falcons arent that

giants had a defensive rank of 25 and 17 when they beat brady. like willie said, it's about getting hot at the right time

 

[al_corona]

Lots of love for Atlanta? Everyone is all over that -3 on NE.