Who's betting on Chi-town? And why?

[composite]

Other than simply "reverse line movement". To me, that's another way of saying "I think Vegas is smarter than the betting public..." There's no actual reasoning about the game, but more blind faith in LV's ability to prognosticate upsets, and sucker in massive Orlando betting.

Maybe Chicago will win, but I'm just trying to understand the rationale. Orlando has better frontline and guards are decent. They look much better w/ Alston @ PG. Bulls are also trying to incorporate several new players.

What am I missing?

 

[HonestRob]

You're missing your tinfoil hat...

 

[Marmix22]

Vegas DOES no better........ not ALL the time but on big FAT HUGE OBVIOUS TRAPS like this one of course they know better....... its like Houston - 3 vs. Dallas made no sense??? but houston won now look at ALL these convincing Orlando magic data

Antilogic suggest Doubling up on Bulls +1.5


Logic suggests bulls are 0-5 AT HOME last 5 vs. the magic
Logic suggets Bulls JUST got beat a lil over a week ago by about 20 at HOME
Logic suggests Magic are better with Rafer Alston
Logic suggets the magic are the best road team ATS
Logic suggests that Magic - 1.5 is easy money
Logic suggets Bulls Loul deng wrist is banged up

Why in your right mind wouldnt u jump with the other 85 percent of people on the magic??? Magic looks like big fat money!!! yeuah i know nothing about lines or anything but iknow i can bet my whole house on this one Magic baby woo!!............no

 

[uscubb28]

Sorry gotta take my MAGIC tonight D-Wade dropped 50 against them and they still lost. I think Dwight has a big night and magic shoot lights out from outside and win by at least 8

 

[Marmix22]

good luck.....

 

[Drewgasm]

Everyone talks about so called traps.....or fishy lines....why was Louisville only giving 1 yesterday? They should have been at LEAST a 6 point favorite against Georgetown.....but there were a LOT of people on Georgetown yesterday because they over analyze or want to be the so called sharp....after that game was over, those betters had to be thinking why in the hell did I bet them? Had the line been 5 or 6 they probably would have bet Louisville.....thats just one example...there are many games like that...thats just the freshest in my mind....Vegas IS smarter than us....we are all losers and they make the money in the long run......with all that being said, Orlando should be a 5 point favorite, but the line is fishy...so Im taking the Bulls!:lol:


Just kidding....its no play for me!

BOL guys!:toast:


Gasm~

 

[composite]

I'm somewhere between Honest Rob and Marmix.

I'm not a tinfoil guy and so, I'm not afraid to bet with the public (for the record, I have $200 on Orlando -1.5)

At the same time, Vegas isn't stupid. They know 95% of the public will bet on Orlando.

That means they want Orlando $$ and will make a killing when Chicago wins. I doubt this b/c there's too much unpredictability. Even if Orlando is a 2-to-1 underdog (and the real line should be Chicago -6 or so), Orlando will win 33% of the time. I can't see Vegas willing to gamble like this, they just want even money.

Which leads me to think 5% of the public is betting a heapful of $$$$ on Chi-town. There's anti-logic guys like Marmix but I can't imagine he's throwing tens of thousands to balance the other 95%.

And he has no explanation why Chi-town will win other than LV thinks so.

Who's the 5% and what's their reasoning?

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

either someone special set up a big line move to get more value on orlando, or they love chicago and the public is in trouble.

one of the two

 

[Marmix22]

I'm somewhere between Honest Rob and Marmix.

I'm not a tinfoil guy and so, I'm not afraid to bet with the public (for the record, I have $200 on Orlando -1.5)

At the same time, Vegas isn't stupid. They know 95% of the public will bet on Orlando.

That means they want Orlando $$ and will make a killing when Chicago wins. I doubt this b/c there's too much unpredictability. Even if Orlando is a 2-to-1 underdog (and the real line should be Chicago -6 or so), Orlando will win 33% of the time. I can't see Vegas willing to gamble like this, they just want even money.

Which leads me to think 5% of the public is betting a heapful of $$$$ on Chi-town. There's anti-logic guys like Marmix but I can't imagine he's throwing tens of thousands to balance the other 95%.

And he has no explanation why Chi-town will win other than LV thinks so.

Who's the 5% and what's their reasoning?

ANY NBA TEAM ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT CAN BEAT ANOTHER NBA TEAM IN THIS CRAZY LEAGUE.... thats all the reasoning you need

 

[composite]

You're missing your tinfoil hat...

btw, :lol:

 

[Drewgasm]

From my experience in Las Vegas....the public is a small better...the sharp is the big better....I notice when Im in a sportsbook in Vegas that all the loud people are the ones with $100 or less bet on a big game that most people are watching....the quiet ones just sit there with there tickets and they bet 1000-10000 on a game....and its not a knock on how much you bet...these are just facts....if 20 people bet $100 in this case, Orlando....Im sure two sharps will bet a dime and just sit there....meanwhile the whole place thinks these 20 boobs jumping up and down after every basket made are cleaning up...they act like they won the lottery....trust me Ive seen it....its fuckin hillarious...just telling you how it is out there....if you dont believe me...the next time you go there, watch them cash their tickets when your in line.....like others have said, Vegas just wants to balance the money out.....sometimes the squares win...sometimes the sharps win.....but the Books ALWAYS win in the long run!


BOL Sharps and Squares!
:toast:


Gasm~

 

[CarolinaKid]

Playing the Bulls here tonite....ck

 

[composite]

Playing the Bulls here tonite....ck

I'm curious, why? What do you like about the Bulls?

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

I'm curious, why? What do you like about the Bulls?

The Magic are a sucker bet.

 

[HammerTime]

agree.............+1.5

Playing the Bulls here tonite....ck