Who makes these odds?

[WildBill]

When maybe 1,500 players are going to play it is hard to say there is an overlay on anyone in the WSOP Championship event, but I just looked at the odds at Bodog and I can't believe some of these!

Now you tell me, how does TJ Cloutier, maybe one of the 10 best tournament players over the last two decade get way down the list at 60/1, behind players like Chris Moneymaker or Andy Glazer? Huck Seed at 100/1 behind practically all listed names? Don't get me wrong Barry Shulman is a good player, but the guy hardly plays due to his work at Card Player and never has been a top flight player in the class of a Huck Seed or TJ Cloutier and he is at 60/1.

These things are unbelievable, but unfortunately not really bettable. I would say the best player in the world might be 5 times more likely to win than average, but that means you need a minimum of 300/1 to make that bet.

 

[wilheim]

I haven't seen them anywhere, but match-ups might be betable. Eg.

Dan Harrington -110
T.J. Cloutier -110

Whoever finishes higer wins (PGA Golf style).

wil.

 

Betfair current prices, some of them:

The Field 1/3.34
Ben Affleck 459/1
Chris Moneymaker 399/1
Daniel Negreanu 199/1
Dave Devilfish Ulliot 149/1
David Chip Reese 269/1
David Chui 179/1
Erick Lindgren 169/1
Erik Seidel 169/1
Gus Hansen 139/1
Phil Hellmuth Jr 129/1
Phil Ivey 129/1

 

[WildBill]

Those are more reasonable, but then again can't sign up for Betfair

 

[Fishhead]

Hellmuth is a tremendous overlay at 129-1.

 

[Pokerking]

You can bet Hellmuth at 200-1 at Pinnacle.

 

[Fishhead]

How many entrants are expected this year for the FINAL??

 

[Fishhead]

Frankly, I dont even care how many entrants.

I just threw $20 on him to win $4000 and another $20 on Scotty N. at 230-1 to win $4600.

 

[WildBill]

Some are throwing out 1500 entrants, much of the growth due to the explosion of satelites to go with the higher exposure of tourney poker. I would guess 1200-1600, somewhere in there. With that many entrants there is definitely a lot of guys that will be better than average in their chances to win, especially considering how long the days will have to be to come up with a winner. In a game like no limit, one mistake caused by too much work at the tables could make the difference so you definitely have to favor guys that have lots of big tournament experience. That being said I still stand by my assertion that no one is more than 5 times as likely than average to win the tournment. With that being the case you need at least 250-1 and maybe more to justify a bet.

Names I think might be worth a look at Pinny in order of preference:

Layne Flack 280-1
TJ Cloutier 250-1
John Bonetti 400-1
Mike Laing 400-1
Huck Seed 300-1
Chip Jett 350-1
John Cernuto 350-1
Freddy Deeb 350-1

 

[SHAWN GOTTI]

FISH, SCOTTY IS ONE HELLUVA PLAY AT 130-1!! GOOD LUCK BROTHER!

 

[Fishhead]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SHAWN GOTTI:
FISH, SCOTTY IS ONE HELLUVA PLAY AT 130-1!! GOOD LUCK BROTHER!

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Scotty- Thats 230-1

 

[overdog]

You guys are out of your minds betting these, to call someone at 200-1 an overlay when there is likely to be more than 1600 people entered is insane.

Do you have any idea how many players are capable of winning this tournament? Out of the 1600 (by the way they could get 2000) lets say 900 are capable, are you telling me that any one player is 5x better than the capable field?

I have entered 8 WPT tourneys this year, and several other big buyin tourneys and I can promise you that betting any of these may be good fun, but not a good bet.

 

[overdog]

By the way, the best NLHE players right now (playing at the top of their games) I would say are Barry Greenstein, Howard Lederer, Gus Hansen, Phil Ivey, and Paul Phillips.

If I was getting 700-1 on any of these players I would consider this a good bet, anything less than 300-1 is outright foolishness.

 

[Fishhead]

Just a couple flyers for me ..........$20 each.

Chump change, relax.

 

[overdog]

I am relaxed, you were the one who called it a tremendous overlay - had you posted that it was chump change and just a flyer I am sorry I must have missed it.

Best of luck with your wagers.

 

[Fishhead]

It was a sarcastic statement.

 

[Fishhead]

.........are you playing in the BIG EVENT?

If so, what are your odds??

I wouldnt mind throwing a sawbuck on you either.

 

[WildBill]

I wouldn't say 900 are capable. With the satellites and the mystique that is at an all time high right now I would guess 300-400 are truly capable. Thing is that you don't need to be capable to win, just lucky. But realisticallly I would only back proven winners because a 5 day tournament is a different story than just about any other tournament out there. You have to strive to play mistake free and get breaks for 5 days to win. With this many entrants the days will have to be extremely long early on just to get down to the field they need to finish in time. If this keeps up I wouldn't be surprised if there were some qualifiers thrown in someday. How about 6 Supers each two-day events and then a final showdown with all six players starting out even. Have most of the prize money distributed before the final table and have just modest prizes added to that, have the players playing more for the bracelet than for the cash. That is how I would do it. Plus you would have six players a year that could feel like they accomplished something big, more than now where only the winner and maybe the runner-up really get much credit for what they accomplish.

 

[htudor]

go to pinnacle noone is less then 200-1 not even phil or gus dont waste your time with props shopping go to pinnacle