Who is the most accurate?

[Concorde]

Readers,

It should be very interesting to know wich poll organization had the minimal margin of error during previouses elections in order to know who is the more accurate. I am amazed to see one poll give Bush an eight point lead and another give them tied because you really CANT understand how the situation really is.
Does anyone REALLY know who is the best and even the 2nd best and who is the more inaccurate?

Thanks

 

[D2bets]

The HARRIS poll was the MOST accurate in 2000.

The GALLUP poll was the LEAST accurate in 2000.

There are enough polls out there that it's wise to basically throw out the polls at the outer ends of both sides of the spectrum. i.e. if you have 10 polls, one having Bush by 8, one Kerry by 8 and all the others show one of the other leadsing by 2 or less, well then you know what to do.

 

[Concorde]

Thanks D2. I believe it is the follow ...

www.harrisinteractive.com

There is a very interesting article that i will post apart.

Concorde

 

[BaseballGuy]

Nice Avatar!

 

[Concorde]

Yeah! But it does not looks good seeing the latest polls.

 

[BaseballGuy]

Keep the faith.

Those polls are usually useless.

 

[Concorde]

Keep the faith.

Those polls are usually useless.

Now i am more relaxed. The fact is that the 1st poll that i see today were the F****** CNN/GALLUP that give the BUllSHit an eight point lead but now i just see that they are tied in the Rasmussen ( John was down by 4 two days ago ) and Zogby polls. I WILL NOT anymore watch the Gallup poll considering also what D2 said.

If you look to change avatar, i found my at yahoo images here ...
http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=John+Kerry&ei=UTF-8&toggle=1&fr=FP-tab-web-t-165

 

[jdodger]

Drudge reports shared this link for poll results; it's pretty good.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

a google search links to a nice state by state poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Table.htm

Here's a clip from the realclearpolitics page today

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]RealClearPolitics Poll Average[/font]<SUP>SM</SUP>
[/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
[/font][font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average[/font]

<TABLE borderColor=#ffffff cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD borderColor=#990000 width=155 bgColor=#990000>[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Poll[/font]</TD><TD borderColor=#990000 width=76 bgColor=#990000>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Date[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#990000 width=48 bgColor=#990000>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush/

Cheney [/font]
​

</TD><TD borderColor=#990000 width=49 bgColor=#990000>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Kerry/

Edwards [/font]
​

</TD><TD borderColor=#990000 width=46 bgColor=#990000>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Nader/

Camejo [/font]
​

</TD><TD borderColor=#990000 width=61 bgColor=#990000>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Spread[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=155 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]RCP Average[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=76 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/17[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=48 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]48.7%[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=49 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45.3%[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=46 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1.6%[/font]​

</TD><TD borderColor=#ffff00 width=61 bgColor=#ffff00>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +3.4[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD width=155 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)*[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/15 - 10/17[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]50%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]47%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61 height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +3[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Zogby (1211 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/15 - 10/17[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]TIE[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]CBS News (678 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/17[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]47%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +2[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]TIPP (807 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/17[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]49%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2%[/font]​

</TD><TD height=20>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +4[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/16[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]52%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]44%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1%[/font]​

</TD><TD>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +8[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Time (865 LV w/leaners)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/15[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]48%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]47%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]3%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +1[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#cccc99 bgColor=#cccc99><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Newsweek (LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/14 - 10/15[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]50%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]44%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +6[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]GW/Battleground (1000 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/11 - 10/14[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]49%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]46%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]0%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +3[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]CBS News (760 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/9 - 10/11[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]48%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]45%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +3[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]ICR (763 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/9 - 10/11[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]48%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]43%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bush +5[/font]​

</TD></TR><TR borderColor=#ffffff bgColor=#ffffff><TD width=155>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)[/font]​

</TD><TD width=76>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]10/9 - 10/10[/font]​

</TD><TD width=48>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]48%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=49>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]49%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=46>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]1%[/font]​

</TD><TD width=61>

[font=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Kerry +1[/font]​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>