I remember the old Don Dollar$ reverse line movement threads. I'm not so much of a fan of reverse line movement but he did bring up a valid point. That is to look for the team that maybe did horribly the week before and take them over a team that maybe did very well the week before. That's simplifying it a bit but I think it has had its advantages. The public will be more on a team that did well the week before and will remember a team that did poorly and will avoid betting on them.
Another angle is to look to see when a line seems "too good". In other words, a team that may have done very well is only favored by a few points (or perhaps is a dog).
Some potential games that take this into consideration:
Kansas City/New England
(line currently at NE -5)
KC beat Houston handily last week 30-0.
New England has been injured and lost to Miami 20-10 in their last game.
Advantage: New England
Green Bay/AZ
(line currently at AZ -7 1/2)
GB won handily last week over Washington 35-18. The Packers have always been a public team.
AZ was blown out in their last game 36-6 by Seattle.
Advantage: AZ
Seattle/Carolina
(line currently at -2)
Carolina almost went undefeated with a 15-1 record with their only loss being toward the end of the season.
Seattle should have lost last week if it weren't for a last-second FG miss.
Why is this line at -2 with an almost undefeated team at home facing a team that should be out of the playoffs?
Advantage: Seattle
Pittburgh/Denver
(line currently at -7 1/2)
Denver won in their last game (against San Diego) when Peyton Manning came in to save the day. I'm guessing Peyton will be playing this weekend as well and will be a public favorite as well.
Pittsburgh handled Cincinnati handily except for a 4th quarter come-back by the Bengals. Pittsburgh has always been a public favorite.
Advantage: This one is a little more difficult to fit into this system. One of the scary things for me to see is that the line opened at 4 1/2 and is now at 7 1/2. Anyone have any input as to who the public might be favoring?
Another angle is to look to see when a line seems "too good". In other words, a team that may have done very well is only favored by a few points (or perhaps is a dog).
Some potential games that take this into consideration:
Kansas City/New England
(line currently at NE -5)
KC beat Houston handily last week 30-0.
New England has been injured and lost to Miami 20-10 in their last game.
Advantage: New England
Green Bay/AZ
(line currently at AZ -7 1/2)
GB won handily last week over Washington 35-18. The Packers have always been a public team.
AZ was blown out in their last game 36-6 by Seattle.
Advantage: AZ
Seattle/Carolina
(line currently at -2)
Carolina almost went undefeated with a 15-1 record with their only loss being toward the end of the season.
Seattle should have lost last week if it weren't for a last-second FG miss.
Why is this line at -2 with an almost undefeated team at home facing a team that should be out of the playoffs?
Advantage: Seattle
Pittburgh/Denver
(line currently at -7 1/2)
Denver won in their last game (against San Diego) when Peyton Manning came in to save the day. I'm guessing Peyton will be playing this weekend as well and will be a public favorite as well.
Pittsburgh handled Cincinnati handily except for a 4th quarter come-back by the Bengals. Pittsburgh has always been a public favorite.
Advantage: This one is a little more difficult to fit into this system. One of the scary things for me to see is that the line opened at 4 1/2 and is now at 7 1/2. Anyone have any input as to who the public might be favoring?
