Not many plays this week because its going to be a public blood bath and some of these lines are either spot on or very tricky.
Oakland Raiders +3.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders…sigh. I had some expectations for them this year but after that performance at home, in a division game my expectations got lowered from the likes of 8-8 to about 5-11. However, as for JaMarcus Russell I don’t really feel like he got a fair assessment. People keep saying how horrible he looked but I guess you can call me crazy but I think he looked good for his 2nd NFL start. He threw the ball with some zip and showed some pocket presence. His throws were fairly accurate and he got absolutely no help from his defense, offensive line, or Ronald Curry who dropped a few passes including one that would have went for about 40 yards. The running game looked strong with Justin Fargas proving he is the most underrated back in the NFL and McFadden proved to me that he can run hard at the NFL level with that big lanky body.
The Raiders defense was pretty non-existent and DeAngelo Hall looked like he was worth about $2 of the $60-something million he is getting paid. Hall was abused all night by rookie Eddie Royal who ran some crisp routes but I mean come on. How long has Hall been in the league that he can’t cover a rookies double move? The defensive front didn’t look to special however I did like how LB Kirk Morrison who has a nose for the ball and seems to always be in on a tackle.
The Chiefs looked good against the Pats although, they did have the advantage of having the Pats lose Tom Brady in the 1st quarter. The Chiefs defense actually played good in the 2nd half. They limited the production of Randy Moss which is a big step in the right direction after his 100+ yard 1st half. Also, if they can stop Moss they can surely stop the garbage receivers that the Raiders throw out there. Yes, when I say garbage I even mean Javon Walker. Brett Favre made Javon Walker all that money and he has gone in the complete wrong direction after witnessing the murder of Darrent Williams.
However, the best thing that happened to the Chiefs on Sunday was Brodie Croyle got hurt forcing Damon Huard to become the number one guy. Did you know that Damon Huard was the starter in every 2007 Chiefs win? Huard is not a bad quarterback. He has a lifetime completion percentage of over 60% and although he doesn’t throw the longest passes he knows how to manage a game. Larry Johnson seems to be slowly creeping closer to his true form but he is still far from reliable. Dwayne Bowe is emerging as one of the better #1 receivers in the league.
I do believe that if the Chiefs can get Bowe lined up with anyone other then Nnamdi Asomugha they have a shot to go for some big gains. Huard is the quarterback the Chiefs need to give them a chance at some wins and he comes in and leads them to a win vs. a banged up and deflated Raiders team in one of the most hostile stadiums in the NFL.
Interesting Stat:
Since 2001 the Chiefs are 10-4 against the Raiders
6 of the last 7 Chiefs-Raiders games have gone under
Prediction:
Chiefs 20
Raiders 10
The Play:
-Chiefs -3 (3 Units) *Buy the hook*
-Under 36 (1 Unit)
Patriots +1 @ New York Jets
Let me take you back, back to a time before last year when the Patriots were putting up 40 points every game. Back to the early 2000’s when the Patriots ran a balanced efficient offense and a complex defensive scheme. When Tom Brady was throwing short routes to the likes of Deon Branch, Troy Brown, David Patten, and David Givens. This type of offense is what you are going to see on Sunday. The Patriots will lull the Jets to sleep with a methodic running game mixing in Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris and the short passes to Jabar Gaffney, Wes Welker, and the backs out of the backfield. Mix that in with the deep shot to Randy Moss and you have a good offense. The offensive line knows they will have to be at the top of their game because if Matt Cassell gets pressured we could see some big mistakes, however if he is given the time that they were able to give Brady Cassell will be able to drive this offense up and down the field. Cassell looked good last week. He showed good awareness, good pocket presence, and threw the ball where only his receivers could catch it.
The Jets offense wasn’t to impressive and most of that has to be put on Eric Mangini who seemed to be holding Brett Favre back all game. They played so conservative that they almost let the Dolphins erase a 13 point lead in the final minutes. Mangini has to attack the Patriots or before they know it they can be down big. He has to utilize Favre’s ability to get the ball downfield to the likes of Jerricho Cotchery, Laverneus Coles, and Dustin Keller. The last time Favre faced the Patriots it was in a 35-0 loss in Lambeu. The Pats got tremendous pressure forcing bad throw after bad throw and Favre turned in a 5 for 15 performance before getting knocked out of the game.
The Jets defense was impressive until the last 6 minutes last week. After that they did not look good. The biggest problem for the Jets in this game is that they still don’t have the personnel to cover Welker, Moss, Maroney, and Gaffney all on a given play. Hell, they can’t even cover Moss effectively. I don’t see the Jets holding this offense to under 17 points which is probably what they will need to win because I am expecting one of the old Belichick defensive schemes to bring some pressure from all angles and try to get Favre to chuck up some of those prayers. I don’t think the Jets will get much on the ground in this game and if the running game gets shut down early its going to be hard for the Jets to get the passing game going.
Interesting Stat:
The Patriots are 12-3 in the last 15 meetings vs. the New York Jets.
The Patriots have won the last 6 games on the road vs. the New York Jets.
Prediction:
Patriots 24
Jets 13
The Play:
Patriots ML +110 (2 Units)
Added Plays:
Colts/Vikings Over 43 (1 Unit)
Jaguars -5 (1 Unit)
ope:
