You all know how my things work. My account has a ton of cash and I need to spend it somewhere on plays I really like so here is the next line. I don't really know if the Red Sox are going to come through for us tonight because the game is tight and Santana is gaining confidence but the Sox almost never let me down and I knew this would be a close game so my wager on them still stands as good even though they are down early.
Alright so I talked about National League teams having the edge most of the time when playing at home in inter-league play because their lineups don't change much and their pitchers are a lot more used to having to bat every now and then. Well having said that, you would think AL teams have enough good bats in their lineup that they can manage having to throw the pitcher out there anyways. I think the real benefit of inter-league play goes to top notch pitchers like Jered Weaver and the teams they play for because not only do they get a virtual free out when they face the opposing pitcher but they also face Mickey Mouse batting lineups (although not the case tonight) and they have a lot more value when underdogs. I think too much value is also being put into Clayton Kershaw because of some of his recent performances and people are not considering how he is going to do against an American League batting lineup, playing in their home State that loves to pound away on left handed pitchers. Because of that matchup my huge wager tonight is on:
Los Angeles Angels ML +117
Do not try to convince me otherwise. I have always said that the one and only time I am willing to bet on the Angels is when Jered Weaver is on the mound. I know his record on the road and his numbers on the road suck ass this season but this is an all California battle and Weaver is from Northridge, California so believe me he is going to be jacked up about playing in this one. He has started three games on the road this season, he is 0-2 in those games and he has been rocked in two of three but you have to be encouraged by Weaver's last road outing despite the loss as he pitched a new gem in Arlington going 8.0 innings pitched, allowing 3 ER's and losing 3-0 because the Los Angeles offense once again chose not to show up for a game (something they have done all too many times recently). My wager is largely based on the fact that I expect another gem from Weaver who should have the confidence coming into this game and I would love to tell you guys that he loves pitching against the Dodgers and has always been a profitable wager when he pitches against them.
Jered Weaver vs. LA Dodgers (Career)
4 Starts, 23.1 IP's, 4 ER's, 1.54 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .171 Opponent batting average.
Those are some absolutely staggering numbers and I just don't see how you can go against him as an underdog tonight? I know the oddsmakers have put a lot of faith into Clayton Kershaw tonight because their assumption is that he is going to pitch the same way as he did his last start when he nearly no-hit the Florida Marlins but that faith is going to take one hell of a trip to hell tonight. Sure Kershaw is good and he has pitched lights out at home but I have to noticed that Kershaw's home starts have come against San Francisco, San Diego and Washington and I think just about any pitcher in baseball would have good numbers when facing those teams at home or anywhere else for that matter. He has never faced the Angels so he does not know what he is in for and what a lot of bettors are overlooking here is the fact that ANAHEIM LOVES TO HIT AGAINST LEFTIES! Their numbers against lefties are not superb but tonight's lineup features quite a few guys who have good numbers against left handed pitchers this season such as:
Mike Napoli is batting .476 versus lefties
Juan Rivera is batting .44 versus lefties
Erik Aybar is batting .333 versus lefties
Torii Hunter is batting .324 versus lefties
Bobby Abreu is batting .282 versus lefties
And the rest have not been all that bad. Regardless this team can knock around left handed pitchers. Kershaw has looked good in games this season but again I have to urge you to consider how vanilla some of his opposing lineups have been in the Nationa League and I think he is going to struggle against a lineup from the American League West that is anxious to get this rivalry going tonight. I know Kershaw had an entire season as a starter in 2008 (21 starts to be precise) and what the majority are failing to acknowledge here tonight with their bets is how Kershaw pitched against the American League lineups he has faced in the past. This kid is from Dallas, Texas and he is only 21 years old so throwing him out there tonight in this kind of rivalry is not something I would want to be on betting wise and I wish you all luck if you have the Dodgers. I say that because Kershaw has made two inter-league starts at home and both were losses.
Kershaw's career Inter-League Home Starts
Jun.20/2008...6-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians
Jun.26/2008...2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox
Not his fault in one of the losses but in those two inter-league home starts, Kershaw pitched 9.0 innings, allowed 6 ER's, allowed 10 total hits, walked 7 batters and did not pitck up a win. I am fully aware that the Angels have all sorts of problems winning games on the road for Weaver but in a game that means so much to the rivalry I think the guys show up for him tonight and if you still doubt some of my stuff, check these stats out for some comfort:
Nothing else to say about this game. I think the Angels are the play tonight and I am willing to drop some big cash on this one. Weaver is the only guy I usually back and seeing how he is a kid from California, this is a start I know he wants to win. Stop thinking about this and put your money where your mouth is please.
:toast:
Alright so I talked about National League teams having the edge most of the time when playing at home in inter-league play because their lineups don't change much and their pitchers are a lot more used to having to bat every now and then. Well having said that, you would think AL teams have enough good bats in their lineup that they can manage having to throw the pitcher out there anyways. I think the real benefit of inter-league play goes to top notch pitchers like Jered Weaver and the teams they play for because not only do they get a virtual free out when they face the opposing pitcher but they also face Mickey Mouse batting lineups (although not the case tonight) and they have a lot more value when underdogs. I think too much value is also being put into Clayton Kershaw because of some of his recent performances and people are not considering how he is going to do against an American League batting lineup, playing in their home State that loves to pound away on left handed pitchers. Because of that matchup my huge wager tonight is on:
Los Angeles Angels ML +117
Do not try to convince me otherwise. I have always said that the one and only time I am willing to bet on the Angels is when Jered Weaver is on the mound. I know his record on the road and his numbers on the road suck ass this season but this is an all California battle and Weaver is from Northridge, California so believe me he is going to be jacked up about playing in this one. He has started three games on the road this season, he is 0-2 in those games and he has been rocked in two of three but you have to be encouraged by Weaver's last road outing despite the loss as he pitched a new gem in Arlington going 8.0 innings pitched, allowing 3 ER's and losing 3-0 because the Los Angeles offense once again chose not to show up for a game (something they have done all too many times recently). My wager is largely based on the fact that I expect another gem from Weaver who should have the confidence coming into this game and I would love to tell you guys that he loves pitching against the Dodgers and has always been a profitable wager when he pitches against them.
Jered Weaver vs. LA Dodgers (Career)
4 Starts, 23.1 IP's, 4 ER's, 1.54 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .171 Opponent batting average.
Those are some absolutely staggering numbers and I just don't see how you can go against him as an underdog tonight? I know the oddsmakers have put a lot of faith into Clayton Kershaw tonight because their assumption is that he is going to pitch the same way as he did his last start when he nearly no-hit the Florida Marlins but that faith is going to take one hell of a trip to hell tonight. Sure Kershaw is good and he has pitched lights out at home but I have to noticed that Kershaw's home starts have come against San Francisco, San Diego and Washington and I think just about any pitcher in baseball would have good numbers when facing those teams at home or anywhere else for that matter. He has never faced the Angels so he does not know what he is in for and what a lot of bettors are overlooking here is the fact that ANAHEIM LOVES TO HIT AGAINST LEFTIES! Their numbers against lefties are not superb but tonight's lineup features quite a few guys who have good numbers against left handed pitchers this season such as:
Mike Napoli is batting .476 versus lefties
Juan Rivera is batting .44 versus lefties
Erik Aybar is batting .333 versus lefties
Torii Hunter is batting .324 versus lefties
Bobby Abreu is batting .282 versus lefties
And the rest have not been all that bad. Regardless this team can knock around left handed pitchers. Kershaw has looked good in games this season but again I have to urge you to consider how vanilla some of his opposing lineups have been in the Nationa League and I think he is going to struggle against a lineup from the American League West that is anxious to get this rivalry going tonight. I know Kershaw had an entire season as a starter in 2008 (21 starts to be precise) and what the majority are failing to acknowledge here tonight with their bets is how Kershaw pitched against the American League lineups he has faced in the past. This kid is from Dallas, Texas and he is only 21 years old so throwing him out there tonight in this kind of rivalry is not something I would want to be on betting wise and I wish you all luck if you have the Dodgers. I say that because Kershaw has made two inter-league starts at home and both were losses.
Kershaw's career Inter-League Home Starts
Jun.20/2008...6-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians
Jun.26/2008...2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox
Not his fault in one of the losses but in those two inter-league home starts, Kershaw pitched 9.0 innings, allowed 6 ER's, allowed 10 total hits, walked 7 batters and did not pitck up a win. I am fully aware that the Angels have all sorts of problems winning games on the road for Weaver but in a game that means so much to the rivalry I think the guys show up for him tonight and if you still doubt some of my stuff, check these stats out for some comfort:
- Angels are 4-0 in their last four inter-league games versus a left-handed starter
- Angels have won five straight versus left-handed starters
- Angels have won 8 of their last 11 interleague road games
- Angels have won 26 of their last 38 interleague games overall
- Dodgers are 5-22 in their last 27 interleague home games versus teams with a winning record
Nothing else to say about this game. I think the Angels are the play tonight and I am willing to drop some big cash on this one. Weaver is the only guy I usually back and seeing how he is a kid from California, this is a start I know he wants to win. Stop thinking about this and put your money where your mouth is please.
:toast:
hno:
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