WHich is the better line?

[SportSavant]

-1.5 -110
pk -125

NBA game...

would the answer be the same regardles of what the match-up is?

 

[ThrillOfGambling]

-1.5 -110

I am on the Knicks as well.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> -1.5 -110<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

do u have a mathematical or or probability explanation? or is this simply ur gut feeling? thanks alot...

P.S Check my Daily thread to see the game I am referring to...

 

[ThrillOfGambling]

No, no mathematical analysis on this. just speaking from experience. never buy points in hoops, only in football. maybe not never, but definitely not on a low number like that.. you're betting on memphis to win, im not a stat guru, but i would say the percentages are extremely low for games decided by exactly 1 point. Again I have no rock solid stat to back me up im just speaking from what ive seen and learned.. if you continue to lay an extra 15 cents in this situation, you're going to lose way more money than you are ever going to save.

 

final: 99-98 knicks

 

[ThrillOfGambling]

that would be very fitting, wouldnt it?

 

[Jazz]

(edited for re-calculation - lol!)

 

[ThrillOfGambling]

what he said !

 

[RicoTorres]

Mathematics and stadistics, ain't that great...

 

[GreenDoberman]

If you simply consider it costs 10 cents for 1/2 point. It would be -.5/ -130 or pick/ -140, so from that obvious analysis, pk/ -125 is the better line. This is a very simplistic analysis, but probably mathematically correct. To get an accurate answer, you would need to know what percentage of games fall on -1 point margin of victory for the favorite.

 

[Jazz]

Assume unless you have stats to the otherwise that the percentage of times a 1.5 favorite wins by 2 to be the same as winning by 1. Let’s say that each has a 3% chance of occurrence, with all other outcomes (favorite losing or winning by more than two) equal to 94%. – that would mean 97% of the time there is no difference in the two bets.

Let’s also say that a 1.5 -110 favorite (though I don’t know this) will win the game 52% of the time, which includes the 6% for both the 1 and 2 point wins – that means you expect to lose 48% of the bets in this case – based on 100 wagers (say for $110 to win $100) on these kinds of games over time

(a) you bet -1.5 -110

lose = 51 games = 51 * $110 = lose $5610 (48% of games lost + 3% won by 1)
win = 49 games = 49 * $100 = win $4900

net loss: $710

(b) you bet pk-125

lose = 48 games = 48 * $125 = lose $6000
win = 52 games = 52 * $100 = win $5200

net loss: $800


Moral: it all depends on the statistics – adjust that 52/48 split either way or change the percentages for the 1 and 2 point wins and the numbers change. Since I don’t bet straight-up I’ve never looked into the question for NBA games, and though while Green makes a good point on the -.5 -130 (pk-140 doesn’t matter because no one would pay for pk when the equivalent at -.5 is cheaper), the question is when does paying an extra 10 points to get off a point make sense, if ever? That would require an in-depth knowledge of the stats, which as I said I don’t have.

 

[Jazz]

lol - however, books still allow you to buy to pick ... here's Pinnacle's current buy-down odds on the Knicks ...

-1.5 +101
-1.0 -109
-.5 -119
pk -134
+.5 -149

I love it!!! They're offering you pick-em at a premium of 15 points when of course it's the same as -.5, and they do so as well on the +.5 which is the same as pick-em.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> lol - however, books still allow you to buy to pick ... here's Pinnacle's current buy-down odds on the Knicks ...

-1.5 +101
-1.0 -109
-.5 -119
pk -134
+.5 -149

I love it!!! They're offering you pick-em at a premium of 15 points when of course it's the same as -.5, and they do so as well on the +.5 which is the same as pick-em.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

JAZZ, this is a perfect example of how books use IMHO very unethical methods to take advantage of NEWBIES & the inexperienced...nobody seems to call them up on it...if someone is stupid enough to bet it the RX would howl at them & say too bad so sad for being so stupid...

Why is it that when the reverse happens & a book posts a bad number...it is not the same thing? this is why I feel all the accountability is on the players side with little if any rules on the books side...

SEE my thread about the silly props SIA has going on right now...

 

[SportSavant]

So in the example above you are getting a full point advantage with the -125 vs the -1.5 -110...

Of course it would cost you 20 cents to buy down to -.5 from 1.5 making it -.5 -130...however I beleive many would argue that 10 cents is too much to pay (Fish where are you?)...anyway you are getting your half points at a discounr of .75cents per 1/2 point...but is this enough of an advantage...if I remember correctly Fish had it calculated at around 6 cents per half point...wow I feel dizzzy