Which Is Better - Following Or Fading A Handicapper?

Search
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,523
Tokens
Not much left as far as value. Opening numbers moved nowhere, biggest 1 pt on Gonz, and that could be injury related. Been going for NIT dogs, Hofstra Monday, South Carolina yesterday and Miami today. I just about shit bricks with that incompetent or Seminole clock operator last night. But this is OMT's thread, so back to his topic out of respect.


Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
 

RX Senior
Joined
Apr 20, 2002
Messages
47,431
Tokens
Bottom line for all you guys going OT etc.

Will you not agree that:

It is better to follow a winning player rather than fading a losing one. Why is that? It is because both are trying to win. The winning player has already found a way to win, the losing one is still searching for a way to win.

The winning player keeps winning, the losing one is still searching for ways to win.
 

NBA and Miami Heat Guru
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
8,605
Tokens
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Not much left as far as value. Opening numbers moved nowhere, biggest 1 pt on Gonz, and that could be injury related. Been going for NIT dogs, Hofstra Monday, South Carolina yesterday and Miami today. I just about shit bricks with that incompetent or Seminole clock operator last night. But this is OMT's thread, so back to his topic out of respect.


Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Had the over last night in the SC game....so I was shitting bricks as well, but for different reasons.

Respect for OMT....wow FROG, looks like you may have turned the corner.

We may have a new, improved FROG!


SB :103631605
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Messages
25,128
Tokens
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
The successful book makes his money on the vig. Not on winners vs. losers. The ones that rely on that are in for some rude awakenings. Sometimes players win. I have a local aquaintance, a local book for 20+ years. He finally tapped out this year during NFL. Right after Thanksgiving. In fact, he became a deadbeat book. If you want to see what happens to a fading book look no furthur than the Dunes saga. It all gets real hazy when you start jumping sports, some may excel at football, and stink at hoops. Then they might just be bad in spots. By the time you figure all of that out you are still at the mercy of their choice. I prefer having control of my own destiny, and deciding where to bet with my judgements applied. At best you could take another posters play, break it down and see where they are in regards to your thinking. To me the most important angle is not what another poster likes but why. Or if everyone likes the same side. Some people like you and sb have nice writeups to explain why. Sometimes additional info can be gleaned here. Again, I think time by a novice would be better spent learning how to cap, becoming self sufficient, and watching line movement and results, vs. studying another posters plays and results. The more time you look at other people the less benefit for improving your game. Just my 2 cents.


Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

A lot of good info here. I like to see also WHY someone likes a side. I do cap the games but hard to see all angles. Probably better to follow successful cappers over time than to fade the worst. You can fade the worst but you still have to pay the vig on losses. This is the book's biggest advantage.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Messages
25,128
Tokens
RobFunk said:
Bottom line for all you guys going OT etc.

Will you not agree that:

It is better to follow a winning player rather than fading a losing one. Why is that? It is because both are trying to win. The winning player has already found a way to win, the losing one is still searching for a way to win.

The winning player keeps winning, the losing one is still searching for ways to win.

I totally agree. If a person like Action goes in a slump, they pull back. They know the value of the lines and money best.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 11, 2005
Messages
2,944
Tokens
In all honesty, there are a couple posters here that I fade, and Im sure there are some people here that fade my plays. Theres nothing wrong with that at all. Its all about winning money here. Back in Feb there was an ongoing post regarding what a certain "square" was betting for a week. I made some money going against his picks. Posters that usually post losers are just as good as posters that post mostly winners.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2006
Messages
3,966
Tokens
not sure what would actually help you more, as I think with experience you hopefully get better and would not stay consistently bad 3-4 seasons in a row. However, I thought about this and looked at this in respects to the ESPN spread pickem during NFL season. the thread is around somewhere, but ultimately about 3/4 through the season about 5% I think were winning gamblers (hit above 52%). another 7% hit above 50%. And I think it was about 75% who it would actually be profitable to fade (i.e. below 47% winning percent) . This is taking a spread on every single NFL game for the first 3/4 of the season. It was also my understanding that in weeks where you did not make picks that you were given the underdog, which should have actually boosted peoples records based on last years "year of the dog".
 

Member
Joined
May 22, 2005
Messages
31,627
Tokens
on the surface fading may seem to work, however if you take into account most touts are nothing more than coin flipppers, betting on the other side of the coin is not going to work. Short term results, chase/martingale systems, data mining are all going to get you in trouble.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 19, 2014
Messages
191
Tokens
ok i can't add much since i'm new at this betting stuff ......each sport has it's different tendencies or quirks as i have learned. One thing is to do your own handicapping develop systems that show high % positive results on all teams. After few years you will find out where each teams strenghts and weaknesses occour.
Long time system in NFL is to fade any team favored after they won previous game as a DOG it's running at 65% losers 1 team really lays eggs flipping roles like 2- 14 ATS 87.5% of course this is over 15 years of results but look at it this way if you laid a 1000$ against them all 16 games

you profit $11,800 divded by 15 years = + 786.66 per year on just that one team in that one system imagine finding 10 other teams that are high % fades like 69% - 75% now your bookie hates your gut's
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
12,044
Tokens
​i just can't fade a handicapper,its just the principal of the whole thing.first of all i don't deal with handicappers(sports services)at all.i just get a bad feeling that as soon as i would fade someones picks they would start winning,..its like if i bet against my team i root for,if i do it, they always make me pay for it
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Dec 18, 2017
Messages
7,096
Tokens
Always fade the ones with a losing history. Cap each play they choose and see if its got a chance before you bet it.
Plays posted in advance like Tip Sheets are the only way to verify a good capper. Late phone releases dont usually give you a true win-loss ratio because you cant verify it ahead of time.
If a Tout advertises that his 10 star play won last week then that may be the only one that did! He likely gave out 4 other plays that went 1-3 or 0-4.
ONLY go by PRINTED and Posted plays that are given out before game day. Thats the best way to verify any record.

.
 

Banned
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
5,341
Tokens
I would have to say fade the ones who have a prone to losing multiple times or have more losers than winners
For example say I have a capper who I follow but sadly has a record of 5-10 (not worrying about the units or anything) and his "next pick" is Blue Jays+150 you would fade his pick and go with the other teams moneyline or whatever is bet on the other team (spread/ over-under)

I don't mind doing a over/under fade but I got lucky last night when I faded on a capper who had a record of 6-11 and his next pick was
Pacers o216 1/2 and you what to do now so I did the under and got lucky when the final score was 99-87 Heat (186)

I have been doing this with the big list I post in the Bonus Plays and fading the cappers with a losing record and playing the opposite team
Last night I went 8-3 and +5.11u from fading on these losing cappers picks!

I will see how tonight goes and let you guys know how it turned out
 

New member
Joined
Mar 29, 2019
Messages
29
Tokens
fade or follow dont change the capper or bet different amounts you would always lose.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,768
Messages
13,438,835
Members
99,338
Latest member
chaicoca816
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com