Which ( H2) line would you take in this case ?

[Doug]

Clev 6
Indy 3

at the half

you want Indy

Indy -3 -134 at Pinny ( I think that was the line). so the bet cannot push, barring an unlikely tie.

Indy -.5 -150 at Betphoenix.

I passed it, but which line do you like better, assuming you could bet either, and wanted the Colts ?

 

[nimue77]

4 middle/5 middle/6 side....probably worth the 16 cents extra on the 2nd half.

 

[Doug]

4 middle/5 middle/6 side....probably worth the 16 cents extra on the 2nd half.

You can't push if Indy wins H2 by 3, that would bring on OT.

Our difference would be Indy winning the half by one or two points.

 

[SportSavant]

or scoreless OT, as happened in the philly game this year.

In fact, I had philly -7 for the 2nd in that game and Pushed, while many layed -7.5 thinking there would be no difference and lost.

 

[Doug]

I'm discounting this theoretical bet pushing. It has to be less than a 1% chance of a scoreless OT, IMO.

 

[D2bets]

Take the -0.5-150 if there is more than a ___ % chance that Indy will win by 1 or 2 (not even counting the OT push on 3).

Let's see who can do the math to fill in the blank...

 

[Doug]

This is one line that kind of messed with my head. I found it difficult to figure out which line is actually better, esp. given limited time to think about it.

I lean to the Pinny line being the better one.

 

[D2bets]

Let me teach how so you don't have to wonder. Pretty simple really.

You need to calculate on each how you often you need to win to breakeven and then just subtract the difference.

In this case, for -134 it's 134/234 = 57.265%. You need to win -134 at least 57.265% to breakeven. For -150 it's of course 150/250=60%. The difference is 2.735%. If the likelihood at the half of Indy winning by 1 or 2 is more than 2.735% then the -0.5-150 is better. If it's less than that, then the -3-134 is better.

Given a tight game at the half I would put the likelihood at more than 2.735% thus the -0.5-150 is better.

 

[Doug]

It's a rare situation, I usually have a clear opinion on which line is better, but not this time.

 

[D2bets]

It's a rare situation, I usually have a clear opinion on which line is better, but not this time.

Maybe, but you shouldn't have to guess. Let the math decide for you and all you have to decide is how likely the result is to fall in the middle. Sometimes the odds can be deceiving unless you work through the math.

 

[Doug]

I can't easily determine the odds of Indy winning H2 by 1 or 2 points, though.

I certainly respect your opinion on this.

I think most here would struggle choosing between these two lines !

I would need a database of similar games... low scoring, dog by 3 at the half, in order to judge the liklihood of this MOV.

 

[Doug]

This is kind of Ganchrow material, IMO. I might send this to him to get his opinion.

 

[BronxCheer+]

I can assure you of one thing!! Right now the best is to have accounts at betphoenix and pinnacle due to the amount of times you will be able to scalp, trust me!!

 

[nimue77]

You can't push if Indy wins H2 by 3, that would bring on OT.

Our difference would be Indy winning the half by one or two points.

Oops, looked at it as if Indy was ahead by 3 at half.
So instead it's -.5 gets you 2 middle and 1 middle for 16 cents...still have to say that's better than -3.

 

[Doug]

I can assure you of one thing!! Right now the best is to have accounts at betphoenix and pinnacle due to the amount of times you will be able to scalp, trust me!!

I disagree. Pinny isn't even an option for most Americans.

I would never try to scalp H2 with just these two books, lines change constantly. It usually takes 3 tries to get an H2 bet in at Phoenix, just the truth.

You can't scalp a market that is moving like this, IMO.

Phoenix is useful for H2, can be a bit different, but don't try to scalp H2 lines between books. The odds change way to fast.

 

[Doug]

I can assure you of one thing!! Right now the best is to have accounts at betphoenix and pinnacle due to the amount of times you will be able to scalp, trust me!!

Your line of -.5 makes more sense to me, or even -1.5, or -2.5, to get it closer to -110 both ways.

Why not make it 3.5 ?

that would seem just as good a number.

or offer 3.5 as well as .5

 

[BronxCheer+]

the reason it moves soooo much is all the action that comes in once we go on the DB feed or sportsoptions for HT's