Wheres the love for Josh Johnson?

[KennyB]

Wow, +130 today on Josh Johnson? I have this game capped at a pick. Johnson has been on fire and I expect it to continue.

I am playing 1 unit on the +130 for the game and 1 unit on the 1st 5 innings @ +125 (5dimes).

 

[RebeKid]

i was just thinking the same thing...you r right and let's hope we cash this

 

[jtc1984]

Interleague game one of series, home favorite's have a high percentage of winning....

 

[C-Gold]

I see JJ, Cain, and 1 other game that look close to a pick but have pretty slanted lines...

I'll probably just stay away but I do like Yovanni Gallero

 

[C-Gold]

Oh yeah the Toronto game... I think Toronto might have decent value.

 

[jtc1984]

I never go against home fav in game 1 Interleague. Cain and Johnson are cy young caliber this yr. I just stay away but then again who the he'll am I

 

[buffettgambler]

I am not sure how you are deriving a pick in this game, but right off the bat, when you see a disparity in market price and perceptive worth this high, it would be prudent to reassess your quantitative analysis.
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In regards to this game, what variable is bringing down the Marlins intrinsic worth to
-100? Surely you are being prudent in awarding the Rays home field advantage, bullpen advantage, lineup advantage, and current form advatange. Are you saying that the disparity between Johnson’s worth and Shields worth at home overcomes the latter variables?
<o> </o>
In my opinion, oddsmakers left excess value on the table with the Rays open. The market is slowing taking it off the table, and will more than likely continue to do so until reassessed valuations are made on lineup information.

 

[DoggieInvestor]

I never fade johnson, and I never fade Shields at home.

Marlins RL might be best play

 

[buffettgambler]

I never fade johnson, and I never fade Shields at home.

Marlins RL might be best play

You don't "fade" pitchers, you "fade" the price assigned to them.

 

[Bennyshoe]

Interleague game one of series, home favorite's have a high percentage of winning....

where did you find this info?

 

[C-Gold]

Buffet...

Do you invest too... I think it would be a better way for you to allocate your time resource to make money. If you invest in stocks you don't have to pay 10% juice and it's a better overall deal.

 

[DoggieInvestor]

You don't "fade" pitchers, you "fade" the price assigned to them.

and both have far outperfomed the prices they have gotten in the situations I stated.

 

[KennyB]

I consider myself a value player. I am looking at how hot Johnson has been and now all of a sudden the Marlins are hot too. The batter/pitcher matchups also favor the Marlins. I have been betting the Marlins for virtually all of Johnson's starts and it is working out well for me including last week when he beat the Yankees.

 

[C-Gold]

You are right, it looks like Value, but Value doesn't always win and I generally like AL teams in interleague play.

 

[lazyeye]

I'll take the +130 tonight on Josh Johnson

O's
Marlins
Boston
Rangers
Brew Crew
Tigers
Angels
Rockies
Dodgers

:cripwalk:

 

[buffettgambler]

Buffet...

Do you invest too... I think it would be a better way for you to allocate your time resource to make money. If you invest in stocks you don't have to pay 10% juice and it's a better overall deal.

Yes, I do. And no, it is not neccessarily an overal better deal. The more efficient the market, the less exploitable it is.

 

[buffettgambler]

and both have far outperfomed the prices they have gotten in the situations I stated.

How much of a foward looking indicator is a statisic with a sample size of 10? What makes you think the market doesn't adjust itself to any potential short term pricing inefficiencies or pitchers producing postive ROI's?

 

[buffettgambler]

You are right, it looks like Value, but Value doesn't always win and I generally like AL teams in interleague play.

Careful, you are treading dangerously close on one of the more common gambler fallacy's.

 

[lazyeye]

damn it florida and detroit screwed the parlay up!

 

[5teamparlay]

Josh takes a No No to the 5th!!!!