quote=da1prophet]I think that's the trick--we can't really get details on the future of online gaming, both immediate and short term. IMO this lack of certainty is fueling the anxiety more than anything specific that's happened.
Here's my prediction--one year from now we'll have essentially as many offshore outs as we do now. Some books may fold or leave the market, while others will open and enter the market. Neteller will either be business as usual and still be the primary conduit for money back and forth. Or they won't, in which case other companies and methods will take their place.
Basically, it'll be the same thing that happens in this industry every year. There may be some additional short term volatility, but the bottom line remains that the US market is a gold mine for sportsbooks/casinos/poker rooms and that individuals and companies will find a way to serve it.
Long term, its even harder to say but I'd suggest if anything the offshore betting industry will become larger and our options as players--even in the US--more plentiful. Eventually the politicians will find something else to get worked up about, or else they'll figure out they might as well get their fingers in the pie. I'm not sure of a specific scenario or a timeline, but as long as the market is there--and I'd strongly suggest that it always has been and always will be--someone will find a way to serve it.
I heard an interesting scenario on Bloomberg or CNBC or one of the other business type media outlets. Some guy was suggesting that a US land based casino company might buy up one of the UK based publicly traded outfits while they could be had at distressed prices. If they kept out US gamblers, in this guy's opinion, they could make it work from a regulatory standpoint and they'd beat the competition to the punch in terms of the online industry which will clearly be a significant revenue source in the future.
The guy stopped there, but it got me thinking--say this scenario transpired and one of the big US casino companies bought an outfit like Party Poker. They'd initially market it to Europe, Asia and elsewhere but what do you think would happen when they saw just how profitable it is? My guess is that they'd start trying to work something out to facilitate serving the US market. I don't think that anyone buys the theory that online gambling "competes" with offline gambling anymore--Las Vegas, in particular, is going to be a prime destination regardless. But why wouldn't a big outfit like Harrah's or Las Vegas Sands want to get a piece of the multi-billion dollar online market? It would be a huge revenue stream for them, and one without the overhead of building and running "brick and mortar" casinos. The potential for cross promotion is also obvious, and were they able to pull it off legally their brand recognition would be damn near impossible for the offshore places to compete with. Given a choice between betting with a Costa Rica based book and, say, the MGM Grand Online I'm pretty sure most people would choose the Nevada based company that they're familar with.
Anyway, that's just some long term speculation.....[/quote]
Excellent post.Excellent. Could not agree more with your analysis.
I think patience and dilligence is the key for the bettor at this point. Let things stabalize a bit and we will have a clearer picture. As da1prophet stated, money drives everthing. And I'm way too cynical these days to think any politician would put "values" ahead of cash. Just because there is a law in place doesn't mean it can be policed 24/7. Banks already have an out regarding penalties. Too many things on their plate now, imo. A blind eye is turned to many laws. Hell I could get a dimebag within a 1/2 hour if I wanted. Little risk. Where there's a will there's a way. And there's definately a will...
:money8: