Maybe you are smarter than I, but why the hell would I ask a rhetorical question on a message board?
I want to know if people have well formed opinions on the future of gold and why they hold these opinions.
Ive been following along. Ive noticed how gold reacts to other markets. It has been acting really strange for the past year though. Its obviously being manipulated in my opinion.
think gold may pull back to around 850 on the near term before its next bull leg late summer 2009-early 2010 taking it to 1300 or so
for now i think its still in consolidation mode and won't go much of anywhere for the next 3-4 months
the next bull leg will likely coincide with more doom and gloom and big banking troubles
for now i think its still in consolidation mode and won't go much of anywhere for the next 3-4 months
the next bull leg will likely coincide with more doom and gloom and big banking troubles
I could see gold going down over the next few months, especially if interest rates increase.
The uk govs recent bond auction was undersubscribed and I've noticed fixed rate deals for savers for up to 3 years being offered, so rates are expected to increase.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7963815.stm
In the longer 6-18months the money system is still pretty fooked and volatile, profitability for companies looks pretty crap, and if oil and energy inflation start to bite then gold could do pretty well.
For myself, I'm spending any spare cash on gold fishing beer and wimmen, the investment system is riddled with far too many scams and accounting anomalies for me to seriously consider shocks and scares.
Doubtless there are a few gems out there, but the market is pretty good at already pricing most of them at a premium.
@)
The uk govs recent bond auction was undersubscribed and I've noticed fixed rate deals for savers for up to 3 years being offered, so rates are expected to increase.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7963815.stm
In the longer 6-18months the money system is still pretty fooked and volatile, profitability for companies looks pretty crap, and if oil and energy inflation start to bite then gold could do pretty well.
For myself, I'm spending any spare cash on gold fishing beer and wimmen, the investment system is riddled with far too many scams and accounting anomalies for me to seriously consider shocks and scares.
Doubtless there are a few gems out there, but the market is pretty good at already pricing most of them at a premium.
@)
the main reason gold will go up in value significantly over the coming months..
has very little to do with inflation of the US currency...
it is because china is realizing they are not a true player without gold reserves that rival the IMFs and the USAs
if China begins to increase its gold reserves...that will drive demand
any demands by China for a new currency being the backbone of the world economy vs the dollar
are laughed at until they raise their gold reserves...
has very little to do with inflation of the US currency...
it is because china is realizing they are not a true player without gold reserves that rival the IMFs and the USAs
if China begins to increase its gold reserves...that will drive demand
any demands by China for a new currency being the backbone of the world economy vs the dollar
are laughed at until they raise their gold reserves...
Gold is a good option to the Fall of the US Empire.
$1Trillion a year added debt for 10yrs will make GDP output barely enough to pay debt commitments. Hyperinflation awaits.
Earlier if international interest rates rise sooner than expected.
USA has a good run, a new economy awaits.
Better? Probably not, just new!
The Roman government's expanded its commitments from 270AD, its welfare liabilties and spending exceeded its income from taxation, and thus created a collapse in the money economy during 270-300AD, with massive hyperinflation. This undermined the artisan (skilled worker) economy, and finally the state which relies on output from the economy, tries to interfere to force people to work for a negative real economic return through a prices and incomes policy, while it carries on spending.
This attempt at controlling inflation by the government failed and a barter system took its place. A move to a barter/land based/Landlord-Renter economy means that output is based around the land, and people cannot practice highly skilled trades. Innovation and finance depend on a sound money economy to save and form reliable contracts to make productivity gains.
Life in Rome moved rapidly from a money economy with technology, artisans and science, to a land based (barter) economy, with a feudal structure and caste system. Within 40 years every citizen was registered with the government. In fact citizens were not allowed to move from their lands, or occupations as it messed up the 'database' (register) and created additional expense for the government.
$1Trillion a year added debt for 10yrs will make GDP output barely enough to pay debt commitments. Hyperinflation awaits.
Earlier if international interest rates rise sooner than expected.
USA has a good run, a new economy awaits.
Better? Probably not, just new!
The Roman government's expanded its commitments from 270AD, its welfare liabilties and spending exceeded its income from taxation, and thus created a collapse in the money economy during 270-300AD, with massive hyperinflation. This undermined the artisan (skilled worker) economy, and finally the state which relies on output from the economy, tries to interfere to force people to work for a negative real economic return through a prices and incomes policy, while it carries on spending.
This attempt at controlling inflation by the government failed and a barter system took its place. A move to a barter/land based/Landlord-Renter economy means that output is based around the land, and people cannot practice highly skilled trades. Innovation and finance depend on a sound money economy to save and form reliable contracts to make productivity gains.
Life in Rome moved rapidly from a money economy with technology, artisans and science, to a land based (barter) economy, with a feudal structure and caste system. Within 40 years every citizen was registered with the government. In fact citizens were not allowed to move from their lands, or occupations as it messed up the 'database' (register) and created additional expense for the government.
