Where The Money Is At 2008/2009 Season Playoffs

[OccamsRazor]

Welcome back to, "Where The Money Is At In the Playoffs". The purpose of this post is to track the ATS record of the NBA playoffs overall. Bettors can then see where the money is at.

In previous years Home Teams, Home favorites and the UNDER have dominated and that my friends is where the money has been.

Be careful, proper money management is a must, don't get greedy thinking all you have to do is bet the Home team. Its not that easy. This is a guide to get you onto the right side or the pass.

Be careful taking the Road team and the points, you're not getting the best of it.

If you are reading this post,in a gambling forum, chances are extremely high that like me, you have an addictive personality. Practice restraint, we have a long way to go.

Favorites are 0-0 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 0-0 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 0-0 SU
Home teams are 0-0 against the spread
Home Favorites are 0-0
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 0-0

Money Makers
Individual Hot Teams


Money Burners
Individual Cold Teams

OVERS
Individual Hot Teams


UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
I'll keep all the records in this one post and update at the end of the day.

Last post from last year, (note record not updated and I dont have the time to updated now. Celtics won SU and ATS at home don't remember if it went OV or UN):

"Sunday 6/15 Results
On Thurs. in the 4rd game of the Finals, the Home Team Favorite Lakers lost again and the OVER hit. Lakers are now 0-5 ATS

FINALS ONLY STATS
Favorites are 3-2 Straight Up (SU) (60%)
Favorites are 2-3 ATS (40%)
Home teams have gone 4-1 SU (80%)
Home teams are 2-3 ATS (40%)
Home Favorites are 2-3 ATS (40%)
Home Dogs are 1-0 (100%)
The Over/Under is 2-3 (60%)UNDER

Going into TUESDAY 6/17 Playoffs+Finals
Favorites are 56-29 Straight Up (SU) (65.8%)
Favorites are 47-36-2 Against the Spread (ATS) (56%)
Home teams have gone 61-24 SU (71%)
Home teams are 46-36-2 against the spread (56%)
Home Favorites are 43-33-2 (56%)
Home Dogs are 5-3 ATS (62.5%)
The 'Over/Under' is 33-53 (61% UNDER)

Money Makers
CELTICS 13-12 ATS

Money Burners
LAKERS 9-10-1 ATS


OVERS


UNDERS
LAKERS 12-8 (63%)
CELTICS 13-12 (54%)

Looking at Tuesday 6/17
Celtics have 2 chances to clinch it at home were they have only lost once in the playoffs. Look for them to put the Lakers out of their misery tonight.

Oh yeah, the Money is with the UNDER and the Home Team SU in the Finals. Lakers have yet to cover.

Good Luck.

Extra
Zig-Zag Theory is 35-31 (53%). Lost last 3 games, Celts covered again. According to Sportsreporter
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[diop]

very good thread.. people should definitely respect the Under throughout the first round of the playoffs from my experiences!

 

[LongboardLarry]

do you have last years results from first round?

 

[OccamsRazor]

do you have last years results from first round?

I don't think so LBL. I believe I started tracking in the second round. The results were pretty much the same, the money was with the Home Favorites and the UNDERS.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Longboard here is some Round 1 Trends from Vegas Insider.

It’s never too early or late to prepare for the playoffs. With the 2009 NBA postseason underway there will be a flock of opportunities to make some extra cash.

Let’s take a look at four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. As usual, all results are ATS, unless stated otherwise.
LOSING TEAMS CAN BE MONEYMAKERS
Surprised? Don’t be. The common perception is that sub .500 teams are simply a punching bag for the elite teams. That’s true, from a straight-up standpoint, they are just 26-65 but against the spread they are 42-43-6. Inside those numbers they are 14-7-3 when playing with exactly two days of rest; 27-15-4 in Games 2 and 3; 13-7-1 in games whenever the Over/Under total is 208 or more points and 9-3 when playing off a loss of 20 or more points.
Detroit is currently a squad under .500, while Chicago and Philadelphia are riding the fence. We’ll see how they stand up this season.

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS
No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter. That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 45-25-1, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home and return home they improve to 33-16-1, including 23-9-1 if off a loss of 5 or more points.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.


DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGMA
Much like losing teams, and often times one in the same, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 23-12-1 in this role, including 20-8-1 if they were a dog of 8 or more points the previous game. They are also 15-5 off a playoff loss when taking double digits from a non-division foe. Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites.


DIVISION DO-OVERS
It isn’t often we’ll find division foes battling one another during the opening round of the playoffs, but when we do we can bank on the fact that familiarity breeds success. That’s because first-round division hosters, off a playoff loss, are 48-35-2, or almost 58% to the number. They improve to 29-15-2 if they scored 90 or fewer points in the defeat. If any one team knows its opponent better than another it’s a division rival. Put them up against a wall watch them react

 

[ryangenero]

well so far home favorites and unders is 0-2

 

[OccamsRazor]

well so far home favorites and unders is 0-2

We are talking about the NBA ryan. Magic mushrooms should not be consumed and chased with Jack Daniels before watching the games.hno:



Boston lost as a Hm Fav, Clev won, Hm favs are 1-1

Both games went OVER OV/UN 2-0

at the end of everyday, I'll update the records

All comments and correct additions always welcomed.

Just kidding ryan GL.

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Sunday April 19th

Favorites are 1-3 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 1-3 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 1-3 SU
Home teams are 1-3 ATS
Home Favorites are 1-3 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 3-1 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 4-0

Money Makers
Individual Hot Teams


Money Burners
Individual Cold Teams

OVERS
Individual Hot Teams

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
The first Day of the playoffs, saw an uncharacteristic 4 Overs and only 1 cover by a Home team. The pointspread did not come into play in the 4 games. The Dogs won SU and the Favorite covered the 12.

 

[OccamsRazor]

We hear a great deal about how the defense dominates in the playoffs and the UNDER dominates accordinly. We also hear the lines are adjusted by the linesmaker to account for the lower scoring. Below are the regular season average lines for each individual match up,[000] and the adjusted playoff lines, {000}.


Boston/Chicago [193] {196}
Cleveland/Detroit [182] {175.5}
Dallas/San Antonio [189] {185}
Houston/Portland [186] {182}

Lakers/Jazz [210] {210}
Orlando/Philly [193] {190}
Atlanta/Miami [192] {186.5}
Denver/NewOrl [198] {194,5}

Notes
The largest adjustment down was Clev/Det (6.5)
The Lakers/Jazz no adjustment (0)
The Bost/Chicago line was the only one adjusted UP (3) points, rare.

This is a guide to help you in your search for value.

 

[Luonel]

UPSET LOSERS ARE WINNERS
If they were upset at home and return home they improve to 33-16-1

is it record for game2, when favorite lost 1st game in serie?
of it's a record for 5th game, when favourite lost on of his 2 home-games and coming back home after 2 games as a guest?

 

[OccamsRazor]

is it record for game2, when favorite lost 1st game in serie?
of it's a record for 5th game, when favourite lost on of his 2 home-games and coming back home after 2 games as a guest?

The reasoning applies mostly to 2nd game at home after losing first.

The situation you describe lose 2 at home, then win 2 on the Rd then go home again is rare.


I started a new post for today, same title. Stats updated there.