When's the zig zag angle kick in?

[Mr NJ Sports]

So far it is only 2-6 . Usually it is pretty good in the 1st round. Obviously ever year is different and you don't just blindly follow an angle but I am surprised it is only 2 & 6 so far.

(take the SU loser in the next game)is the angle for those who do not know.

The Knicks running their mouths will not help this angle because they have no D and the Nets enjoy killing them so I expect 2 losses for the angle in that series.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I think the Pistons will bounce back in a big way after a brutal game 2. The Bucks are going to make shots, but the Pistons can't afford to get outrebounded(37-48) again.

GP

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Yeah ,they should. The one that surprised me was Denver tonight. I figured Cassel wouldn't go for 40 again but I did't count on Sprewell going nuts and I thought Denver would shoot a bit better.

I guess we are seeing why these series odds were what they were.

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr NJ Sports:

For what it's worth, last week prior to the start of the playoffs, Don Best ran a front page article on the zig-zag theory and it's corresponding ATS record. The most notable situation was, as I recall, playing the home underdog coming off a straight up loss. I believe the winning percentage was somewhere between 63-65%. I bring this up as the upcoming Games 3 and possibly 4 will have a lot of games that fall into this category. Personally, I have been aware of this theory for many years and have kept track but never applied it blindly as I am a fundamental handicapper. Just wanted to share what I read with you. I looked at the site www.donbest.com to see if I could retrieve the article somehow from an archive but didn't see a means to do so. Check out the site. You may be better then I at finding it or perhaps the General or one of the mods could help find it if you ask it the Offshore Forum. Just wanted to share. Best of luck to you throughout the playoffs.

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Thanks for the link. Ill try to find it and repost it if I do.

It was actually 2-0 on Thursday..I had Nj and Memphis (1-1)

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Ted, I couldn't figure out how to get an old article either.

 

[JonathanGOLD]

Since the NBA playoffs are upon us, we decided to re-examine a playoff angle called the zigzag theory. This angle is to play ON any playoff team coming off of a straight-up loss because these clubs usually play with a greater sense of urgency.
We have studied all NBA playoff games since the 1990-1991 season and the results of this angle by category appear below (all records are ATS)
NBA PLAYOFF TEAMS OFF S/U LOSS – ALL
Home Favorites: 156-162-8, 49.1%
Home Underdogs: 45-37-1, 54.9%
Road Favorites: 28-25-1, 52.8%
Road Underdogs: 194-165-12, 54.0%
This system works much better if the team which lost the last game is now an underdog. These puppies are a cumulative 239-202-13, or 54.2 percent against the number. To try and get an even better winning percentage, we then decided to look at UNDERDOGS ONLY by various point ranges. The results appear below.
NBA PLAYOFF TEAMS OFF S/U LOSS - UNDERDOGS ONLY
+1 to +1 ½: 18-7, 72.0%
+2 to +3 ½: 47-48-2, 49.5%
+4 to +5 ½: 68-55-5, 55.3%
+6 to +7 ½: 44-51-2, 46.3%
+8 or more: 62-41-4, 60.2%
Consistent with our findings from last season, the best plays are either small underdogs of plus one or plus 1 ½, or big underdogs of plus eight points or more. Based on these results, do not be afraid to back an underdog that lost its last game, especially if it falls within one of the prime point ranges we just mentioned.
Finally, we decided to take a look at teams that lost their last game BOTH S/U AND ATS to see if this model produced better possibilities. The results of this analysis appear below.
NBA PLAYOFF TEAMS OFF S/U AND ATS LOSS – ALL
Home Favorites: 136-131-6, 50.9%
Home Underdogs: 34-18-1, 65.4%
Road Favorites: 26-23-1, 53.1%
Road Underdogs: 151-134-5, 53.0%
While the results are not dramatically different from the analysis of teams coming off of a S/U loss - only in three of the categories - it is interesting that home underdogs are hitting at a phenomenal 65.4 percent success rate if they lost their last game both S/U and ATS. Granted, the sample size of 53 occurrences is less than we would like, but this angle bears watching nonetheless.

 

[oldmanTED]

JonathanGold:

Thanks. This looks like the article I read on Don Best. I see the number that I recalled was not just any home underdog that lost straight up in the previous game, but lost ATS as well, i.e. 65.4%. Tonight both Boston and Houston fit the criteria. Last night both New York and Memphis fit the profile. Best of luck to you throughout the playoffs.

 

[dolphin]

After Phil Jackson's first series as Laker coach and excluding the juggernaut that was last year's and probably this year's Spurs, the Lakers are 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS in their first road game of a series. The Bulls had similar figures. I know I have several posts in here regarding tonight's Lakers game and I am smart enough to know I must be grating on a few of you, so this is the last post regarding this game. I wish all of you good fortune!

 

[oldmanTED]

dolphin:

This thread was started strictly to provide information for the forum and your threads have done the same. At it's best, that is what the RX should be all about, the sharing of information so posters, members and viewers can make an informed decision. No one knows the outcome before any game but the more knowledge we share, the better chance we all have at building our bankroll. Best of luck to you in the playoffs.

 

[Newbee_KC]

Hey Ted!

How's everything?

 

[oldmanTED]

Newbee_KC:

Everything is OK. Thank you for your response to my thread and I hope you saw my acknowledgement to you the next day as well. The fact that you registered to express what you felt towards me really got to me and meant a great deal. As I said in my last thread, I am currently watching all Game 3's and hope to see something I like when Game 4's begin. That being said, I almost posted today as I have a lean toward the Celtics tonight, but I will stay with my approach. There will be plenty of games that I should feel comfortable about as the playoffs continue. Bear with me. I've noticed some of the respective cappers on this forum are also being patient at the moment. Appropriately so I believe. Best of luck to you throughout the playoffs.

 

[oldirtyku]

Newbee_KC. I grew up in silver Spring and live now in Potomac MD. Do you know where Briggs Chaney is?

Ku

 

[Newbee_KC]

Thnx for the response Ted!
I'm delighted to hear everything is ok with you. Keep up the GREAT work! Looking forward to ur posts!

 

[Newbee_KC]

Oldirtyku! Wassup dog!
Ha! Good seeing you here, how's everything!
Yo can you give me ur # so i can call you!

 

[Newbee_KC]

Ku! It's me KC, Van's boy. LOL!

 

[oldirtyku]

KC,

Small world. Hahahah. I call your cell in 2 min.

Ku

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Thanks Jonathan good stuff.

 

[oldmanTED]

For those interested, after a slow 2-6 start to the zig-zag theory, a run of 7-1 has brought the current record of this trend to 9-7 through Saturday's games. The breakdown of these 16 games too date that met the criteria is as follows:

Home Favorites: 2-0
Home Underdogs: 4-1
Road Favorites: 1-0
Road Underdogs: 2-6

Not to be followed blindly, but information worth noting. Sunday's plays meeting the criteria are Boston, Los Angeles, New York, and Memphis. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Good post TED...You saved me the trouble.

I couldn't bet on Boston. And I think the Knicks are done also. They shouldve and wouldve gotten buried last game if the Nets didn't go ice cold down the stretch.