Over the past 2 months, I have had about 3 dozen games where I lost by a 1/2 pt -1 pt. It got me to thinking about when others would buy 1/2 or full point? I would like to hear from others if they have certain situations or certain numbers they buy off of. I would then like to compare those situations or numbers to the 3 dozen games I lost by a point or less and were not even talking about the pushes, where I would have made or saved money. Thanks.
KOJAK-
Read the entire following thread and you will learn a tremendous amount. Enjoy!
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=720100011
Read the entire following thread and you will learn a tremendous amount. Enjoy!
http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=720100011
Judge,
You might find it instructive to know that the most common winning margin in hoops is 7. It is year in and year out. Happens approximately 5 or 6% of games. Has to do with the fact that a deficit of 7 is 3 scores so the team behind stops fouling and concedes the game. By the way, winning margins of 1 and 2 aren't even 2nd. I believe that honor goes to 5, but don't quote me on that.
You might find it instructive to know that the most common winning margin in hoops is 7. It is year in and year out. Happens approximately 5 or 6% of games. Has to do with the fact that a deficit of 7 is 3 scores so the team behind stops fouling and concedes the game. By the way, winning margins of 1 and 2 aren't even 2nd. I believe that honor goes to 5, but don't quote me on that.
As far as the NBA goes, like the Judge I don't like to buy much, but will on ocassion. Mainly only with small underdogs, and only if I get a "good" number to begin with. Eg. plus 2.5 to 3 and plus 3.5 to 4. I like to make a team have to win by 4 to beat my original plus 2.5 and by 5 to beat my original plus 3.5. Football - NFL only, I have come to the conclusion that if a game is a stone 3 then there is nothing I can do except risk a push, buying off is just to expensive. Personal rules of thumb are to never lay 3.5 and never take 2.5 in the NFL. Again like Judge I don't mind buying to plus 7.5 -120 or -6.5 -120. Thats it for me buying points. Judge, please let us know if "Win More -- Lose Less" has any pearls of wisdom, I hope it does.
wil.
wil.
GU
YS GUYS GUYS.......WHAT HAVE I TAUGHT YOU???
I cannot keep saying this over and over and over much longer.
FIRST OFF IN THE NBA......YOU WILL NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER want to buy a half point for ten cents!! NEVER EVER!!!! Except for the possible exception of the number SEVEN, the most you would ever want to buy a half point for is SIX CENTS!!!!.......POSSIBLY SEVEN CENTS BUT NOTHING MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IN THE NFL, you will not be able to buy on or off of the number 3 for less than 20 cents at 99% of the places, so forget even thinking of that.
The ONLY time you want to buy a half point in the NFL for TEN CENTS is if you are betting a +6.5 point dog ......you buy it UP to +7.
NO OTHER TIMES!!!!!!!
P
[This message was edited by FISHHEAD on February 13, 2004 at 08:56 PM.]
I cannot keep saying this over and over and over much longer.
FIRST OFF IN THE NBA......YOU WILL NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER want to buy a half point for ten cents!! NEVER EVER!!!! Except for the possible exception of the number SEVEN, the most you would ever want to buy a half point for is SIX CENTS!!!!.......POSSIBLY SEVEN CENTS BUT NOTHING MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IN THE NFL, you will not be able to buy on or off of the number 3 for less than 20 cents at 99% of the places, so forget even thinking of that.
The ONLY time you want to buy a half point in the NFL for TEN CENTS is if you are betting a +6.5 point dog ......you buy it UP to +7.
NO OTHER TIMES!!!!!!!
P
[This message was edited by FISHHEAD on February 13, 2004 at 08:56 PM.]
Fish - Who asked ya?
Seriously, with reduced juice NBA outs there are a some opportunities to buy vital half points at prices under -115 (regular and buy juice combined). I did not mention it, but the same goes for NFL. As far as the number 7 in the NFL goes, I believe in buying to win. In other words get off the push number of plus or minus 7, to winning numbers of plus 7.5 or minus 6.5. IMHO.
Wilski.
Seriously, with reduced juice NBA outs there are a some opportunities to buy vital half points at prices under -115 (regular and buy juice combined). I did not mention it, but the same goes for NFL. As far as the number 7 in the NFL goes, I believe in buying to win. In other words get off the push number of plus or minus 7, to winning numbers of plus 7.5 or minus 6.5. IMHO.
Wilski.
Fishhead- don't try and be expert in everything and quit yelling. You are most annoying poster on forum. If you by off and on 7 in NBA you make money but no other point........ and yes you can buy for 10 cents.........don't buy in college
intersting points in NFl as some years it's worth it to buy off and on 7 and total of 37 and some years not
intersting points in NFl as some years it's worth it to buy off and on 7 and total of 37 and some years not
in hoops - i NEVER lay 2.5 or take 1.5. i buy down to -2 -120 and if i can't take the m/l of a 1.5 dog - i buy up to +2 -120. for me - it has saved me more money then i can keep track of.
as for the nfl - and 3, my "local" guy allows us to buy to 3 for $.10 but $.20 to buy OFF 3. trust me - i take advantage of this savings of the $.10
as for the nfl - and 3, my "local" guy allows us to buy to 3 for $.10 but $.20 to buy OFF 3. trust me - i take advantage of this savings of the $.10
Fish,
I understand your point of never buying points ever. Books wouldn't sell them if they didn't make a profit on them. That being said, I think they are still useful in such cases as hedging. Example: Say I'm playing a 5 team parlay for $100 to win $2000 and I've won the first four. The 5th game has yet to start and I want to guarantee winning something so I look to put a dime on the other side for that game. Lets say for the 5th game I got Duke -7.5 over NC. Now as I search for a book to hedge on NC, I can't find any with anything better than NC +6.5. I could still play this, but if Duke wins by 7, that would be a disaster. Therefore, in this case, I would gladly buy the 2 half points.
I understand your point of never buying points ever. Books wouldn't sell them if they didn't make a profit on them. That being said, I think they are still useful in such cases as hedging. Example: Say I'm playing a 5 team parlay for $100 to win $2000 and I've won the first four. The 5th game has yet to start and I want to guarantee winning something so I look to put a dime on the other side for that game. Lets say for the 5th game I got Duke -7.5 over NC. Now as I search for a book to hedge on NC, I can't find any with anything better than NC +6.5. I could still play this, but if Duke wins by 7, that would be a disaster. Therefore, in this case, I would gladly buy the 2 half points.
Billy B,
You are correct about most of what you say (not sure about odds being with you buying off 7 - definitely not in hoops, possibly in foots). However I am referring to 5 teamers that are given out as bonuses by books or in contests, and not ones I play on my own. You got no choice to play all 5 in these, and by picking the last game as one that doesn't start til all others are done, you give yourself the opportunity to hedge like this.
You are correct about most of what you say (not sure about odds being with you buying off 7 - definitely not in hoops, possibly in foots). However I am referring to 5 teamers that are given out as bonuses by books or in contests, and not ones I play on my own. You got no choice to play all 5 in these, and by picking the last game as one that doesn't start til all others are done, you give yourself the opportunity to hedge like this.
