When to bet baseball runlines?

[HPark1]

This is moreso for when to take the +1.5 as opposed to laying the -1.5 as I rarely bet a team to win by 2 or more but any infomation is useful.

Just wondering when you guys decide to choose a runline over the moneyline. Betting mainly underdogs sometimes I found myself debating whether to take the big price or take the +1.5 runs (or even +2.5 runs). For instance last night I liked Pittsburgh over Chicago. The moneyline was almost 2-1, the runline was still plus money, +120ish, and the +2.5 runline was still a very tempting -140ish. Obviously I took the moneyline and Pittsburgh lost by the lone run.

I've always assumed that when a total is low then maybe it is better to take the extra insurance but I've never actually looked at the stats.

Any input would be appreciated.

 

[hanover00]

I never do. If there's no value in the moneyline then you're kidding yourself on the run line.

 

[SportSavant]

I will lay the 1.5 runs in exchange for + heavy vig in certain situations where I like the team but I do not feel like laying the vig....

yesterday one could have taken the expos -125 or the expos -1.5 + 181

Of course they had to win by 2 runs instead of only 1 but that is a heck of alot of extra vig for that extra run....

 

[blueedwards]

find a book that lets you parlay the run line with the total. there is a ton of money in that my friends.

 

[wilheim]

Bet road dogs -1.5 runs plus heavy juice - on the road you are insured 9 at bats.



wil.

 

[UberTout]

My sentiments exactly SportsSavant.

I don't believe I have ever bet into a +1.5 runline, but I frequently take a moneyline favorite -1.5runs. Last night in fact, I had the Padres -1.5 +175 and Tampa Bay -1.5 +165. Both were moneyline favorites.

I know a lot of games are decided by a single run, but if the difference in plus money is big enough for the -1.5, I'll bet it.

UT

 

[heart222]

One should bet the run line when its going to win.:) I believe the percentage of 1 run games is road teams 18% and home team27%. I have done well with dogs on the road and over as a parlay especially the n.l. in the a.l. I like the run line because the scoring is so much more. TYhis weekend I had Yanks runline and over cashed 2 out of 3 for 3-1 type things. If I take the run line and over i may also take the ml and over also as i am concerned about the 18% give up on 1 run games.

 

[dogdoug]

just about anytime the side I like is -150 or higher

 

[brewster]

What would be nice is a software program that has all previous lines and outcomes built into it. You would input the ml,rl,total,and home/road values into it. And it would crank out +EV plays. There has to be 20+ years worth of data out there. I suppose you could use excel for such a task, but it seems like alot of data entry to me. Then it becomes a time factor.............

 

[Bucky]

run lines

:breakit: + 1.5 sides with + odds have done pretty well since the all star break. I don't know about the rest of the season with some teams mailing it in. There certainly is no value in playing the big -300 money lines or - 1.5 / -180's.