It's far less important to "get an edge on the Books" in sports betting as it is to retain your edge on other sports bettors.
Unlike casino gambling, in sports betting I am not gambling against the Bookmaker. I am betting against other sports bettors.
And from personal experience and observing a short list of other good sports bettors, I am confident that if one does the neccesary work, you will always retain the edge on the vast majority of sports bettors and thus be in strong position to make money.
Unlike casino gambling, in sports betting I am not gambling against the Bookmaker. I am betting against other sports bettors.
And from personal experience and observing a short list of other good sports bettors, I am confident that if one does the neccesary work, you will always retain the edge on the vast majority of sports bettors and thus be in strong position to make money.
How do the books factor weather, injuries, and fixes under your theory? If Peyton Manning is 50-50 yet large sums of money come in against the Colts, will the books hold the line because it's the right one in theory until the news is announced? If Manning is upgraded to probable, yet even more money comes in against Manning, then what do the books do? Books are trying to handicap humans in emotional situations with tons of other factors to consider with injuries and changing weather to consider. Therefore there will always be "moves" and the lines will float.
Back when Tim Donahey was fixing totals in the NBA you should have seen some of the shenanigans that were going on at books. Pinnacle would just get pounded on NBA totals and adjust the juice to try to entice the other side. Pinnacle was getting drowned with smart money, but they had the limits adjusted to those with info and then turned that info to even more money for themselves by adjusting the line and then betting the info at other books.
Information is the key and those who have it first will profit the most from it.
Back when Tim Donahey was fixing totals in the NBA you should have seen some of the shenanigans that were going on at books. Pinnacle would just get pounded on NBA totals and adjust the juice to try to entice the other side. Pinnacle was getting drowned with smart money, but they had the limits adjusted to those with info and then turned that info to even more money for themselves by adjusting the line and then betting the info at other books.
Information is the key and those who have it first will profit the most from it.
...will there be a big enough edge to make it worth it to keep betting sports? There are so many ways that the player can get the edge on the books right now just by doing research and looking at the right statistics. In every sport, there are certain things that can consistenly give you this edge. However, when will the books catch on to some of these and effectively eliminate this edge (not that they are all that easy to replicate, but possible)? As they get smarter, won't the lines that are posted eventually be to the point where they are VERY close to the theoretical lines?
I know some of the skeptics will say that the books just want to balance action and sharps will always take money from the squares. However, the books would actually make more money if they just posted the right number for every game (even if it means taking a pounding on some heavy public games).
Who thinks that we will get to that point some day? Curious to see what others think of this theory. I go back and forth on this and can see it both ways.
I know some of the skeptics will say that the books just want to balance action and sharps will always take money from the squares. However, the books would actually make more money if they just posted the right number for every game (even if it means taking a pounding on some heavy public games).
Who thinks that we will get to that point some day? Curious to see what others think of this theory. I go back and forth on this and can see it both ways.
I'm not sure I got my point across exactly like I had hoped. If the books could basically put out a line that is very close to the "theoretical" line that the game should be at (for example, what the closing numbers are on a game), then much of the value that we can get now would be eliminated. There would be much less line movement if the books were very confident that their opening number was good. Obviously you never know the theoretical line for sure, but if they were able to use some of the tools that some of the sharps knew about, their openers could be a lot better. I believe that the sports betting market will eventually evolve into this at some point, much the way that the stock market did over time. It is much more difficult to gain an "edge" in the stock market now than it was 20+ years ago. And the reason that the stock market has become this was is because the information that drives stocks is more readily available and professionals know how to use it.
