When shopping how much are these half points worth?

[BillDozer]

NBA sides =
NBA HLF sides =

NBA totals =
NBA HLF totals =

baseball totals even # =
Baseball totals odd # =

 

[Fishhead]

Will start the ball rolling.....

NBA SIDES= 6.5 cents

 

[JudgeWapner]

Fish what about college hoops,sides?

 

[BillDozer]

Thanks for the start!

I know halvs are worth more but dont have an exact %. I was thinking an NBA hlf side would be worth 7 cents? I know totals have to be worth atleast that.

Hlf times take much less time and probability of hitting a 24 minute target is much greater than a 48. (Middle attempts have been more on target in hlvs)

[This message was edited by BillDozer on April 02, 2004 at 01:32 PM.]

 

[BillDozer]

NBA sides = 6.5
NBA HLF sides = 8 cents?

NBA totals = 6.5 ?
NBA HLF totals = 8 cents?

baseball totals even # = 6 cents
Baseball totals odd # = 7.5 cents?

 

[lakerfan]

NBA totals = 6.5 ?

This is closer to 5 cents in general.

 

[BillDozer]

Yeah? I usually take the better number if its close. (for making a straight up play)

My personal feeling is 15 cents is not too much to pay for a one point middle attempt for NBA hlf total. So far it has not bit me. I'd like to hear other opinins on if I am paying too much and have just been lucky this year.

If we are talking 7% of the time it hits the window with $1000 units one should avg $3000 won on 20 trys and $2775 invested?

Of course 7% is based on someone knowing not to try this with 111 total point spreads or teams with wide scoring variations.

 

[BillDozer]

6.5 cents per nba total hlf point is probably the way to go.

 

[lurkerforages]

Lakerfan is correct its around 5 cents. For totals over 200 its less than 5 cents.

If I see Fishead post 6.5 cents for NBA sides one more time I will scream.
Think about it fishy, if it were true a 1.5 point middle would not be profitable with -110 on each side.
Maybe he is counting getting an extra half on PK games.
CBB is around 6.5, NBA much higher.

 

[BillDozer]

Lurker,

So what do you think it is then?

It all depends on the probability of a push in each scenario.

 

[D2bets]

It varies a bit depending on the spread number involved -- some are better than others -- and of course when you accumulate several half points tigether the value increases, but as an average I'll go with these roughly:

NBA SIDES -- 7.5 cents
NBA HALF SIDES -- 8.5 cents
CBB SIDES -- 6.5 cents
CBB HALF SIDES -- 7.5 cents
NBA TOTALS -- 4.5 cents
NBA HALF TOTALS -- 5.5 cents

Baseball totals even # = 15 cents
Baseball totals odd # = 20 cents
(At least that's what I recall from baseball, it's been so damn long!)

 

[D2bets]

That being said, I won't go for a side (i.e. -5.5/+6) for 7 cents cost even though it MAY be slightly profitable, on the other hand for 6 cents...

 

[BillDozer]

D2,

Half totals are only worth 5.5 cents to ya? Or is that the most you can mathematically pay for it to be profitable. I was thinking the line hits enough to pay 7 cents on an NBA hlf total.

 

[D2bets]

Could be a little more than 5.5 but I wouldn't go to 7 cents. That means 1.5 pt 1H totals middle would be profitable and I just don't think so. Maybe 6 cents tops. Plus I find them for less than 6 cents per side quite often.

 

[BSK]

Newbie question:

Do you guys value half point more if:
(a) it would potentially change a loss to a push ( i.e. getting +7 instead of +6')

vs.

(b) potentially changing a push to a win(getting +6' instead of +6)?


Any thoughts? Is there a difference mathematically???