When Pinny Plays with Ur Mind...

[SportSavant]

what are they trying to do:

Thu 3/11 501 New Orleans Hornets +7 -105 +270 OVER 178 +111
04:35 PM 502 Houston Rockets -7 -105 -310 UNDER 178 -121


***Most places have 177.5 They will pay you 21 cents if you give them the 1/2 point...great deal...or is it? Are they trying to suck us in...but wait...maybe they are trying to suck in the squares who will lay anything to get a higher number on the under? hmmmm....but then theyd get banged on the over....what the hell is going on here....vote & comment please.

 

[pja101]

Just play your own numbers. I've never understood why people let books play mind games with them. If your numbers call for a play on the under, obviously play somewhere else. If they call for an over, pinny has an excellent line for you.

 

[PO69]

I will say one thing, if your books lines cause you heartache, then you need a new book! No questions asked

 

[BoratSagdiyev]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by playersonly69:
I will say one thing, if your books lines cause you heartache, then you need a new book! No questions asked<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Only question is why lines give to you heartbreak? You can't find number you are looking for?

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Just play your own numbers. I've never understood why people let books play mind games with them. If your numbers call for a play on the under, obviously play somewhere else. If they call for an over, pinny has an excellent line for you. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

lines dont cauz me heartaches folks...rather was just wondering wether or not theover @ +111 was a strong play from a mathematical percentage, as we know...you only need to hot 48% or so of plays at odds of +111, I take a few bets myself & heck, ill take almost anything when I get +110...they are giving +111....now why is that? perhaps they are sharp...but if so what side do they like?

Let's examine it this way...If you had absolutely no opinion on the OVER or the UNDER & you thought 50/50 it could go either way....you would be a fool not to bet the over at +111 would you not?

if you forget about all the smart mathematical positions & play only your favorite games IMHO you are missing alot of solid plays...

 

[jerseymike111]

There trying to suck you into playing the over!

Pinny does play with your mind,when they put up #'s like that.
In the last 6 mos ,it seems that there doing it more and more.

 

[pja101]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
lines dont cauz me heartaches folks...rather was just wondering wether or not theover @ +111 was a strong play from a mathematical percentage, as we know...you only need to hot 48% or so of plays at odds of +111, I take a few bets myself & heck, ill take almost anything when I get +110...they are giving +111....now why is that? perhaps they are sharp...but if so what side do they like?

Let's examine it this way...If you had absolutely no opinion on the OVER or the UNDER & you thought 50/50 it could go either way....you would be a fool not to bet the over at +111 would you not?

if you forget about all the smart mathematical positions & play only your favorite games IMHO you are missing alot of solid plays...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Point taken. My last post may have been unclear. My point is, who cares what side they may or may not be attempting to draw action to, if they even are at all. I couldn't care less what pinnacle's opinion is of any of tomorrow's games. Pinnacle is a very beatable book. Yes, they are sharp. They have to be offering dime lines. Also, scalpers/middlers will tell you that they tend to win less at pinnacle, and more often at other books.

Pinnacle does not have psychic abilities. Their leans are very often wrong. I don't understand the reverence for them that many seem to have.

 

[pja101]

By the way, they're currently offering

OVER 177 (-102)
UNDER177 (-108)

Now do you suppose they're doing? Have they gotten so much money on the over that they've decided to drop the line an entire point, but add 13 points in vig? Doubt it.

Have they been forced to drop their number an entire point because of so much action on the under paying (-121) Doubt it.

Have they just changed their opinion of the game? Doubt it.

You could drive yourself nuts trying to figure these things out. It's a complete waste of time imo.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> You could drive yourself nuts trying to figure these things out. It's a complete waste of time imo. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

you are absolutely right...there is much better things to analyz...

 

[RDC]

ive been trying to figure their lines out for months now and to no avail have I been able to figure out which way to bet following their moves on the spread or money lines. I really think they just like to play mind games with the player.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Pinnacle probably wants action on the over here, but I doubt it's because of any special insights. They just probably got a lot of action on the under and are trying to balance things out. And if they move the price like that rather than the point total, it just means they'd rather not risk it landing on the number and getting middled. Instead, they'll take a smaller hold with no risk.

IMO you'll get a lot of gray hairs trying to speculate on why Pinnacle does what it does. It's better just to cap the games, bet on the best line and be done with it.

 

[Rogthedodger]

SS just realize that on the overnights you're going to get lines like that frequently. When a linesman @ Pinnacle isn't present the software is moving solely on action. For every X dollars laid the the juice will move X amount. Until a human is there to knock the line back down where they want it the lines will keep moving driven solely my a computer.

P.S. I expect the people that claim that Pinny does not have software that moves by itself to rush on in here and dispute my claim that they DO have such software---I'll go ahead and state now that they are wrong.

 

[ChuckSims]

No need to ask if a bettor is a winner or a loser when he thinks a book is playing with your mind. Look at the line, if you like it bet it, if not, pass on it.

 

[NickDouglas]

The best way to bet at Pinnacle is to only play games where you are getting plus money on the point spread or total.

 

[Moon88]

are they really sucking you into playing the over?....or are they getting banged on the under?.......good old fashioned bookmaking will lean towards the latter......they opened up using therx lines here at 178u105...but who really knows? ONLY PINN

[This message was edited by moon88 on March 11, 2004 at 06:24 PM.]

 

[daveycaps]

i totally disagree with there NDouglas u only going to play games that is plus money. What is your logic on that? Just use your head bet on the games you cap and bet against the public in the tournament and u will win i guarantee u that. ill give u a winner tonight st louis

[This message was edited by daveycaps on March 11, 2004 at 06:56 PM.]

 

[Moon88]

Pinn's line closed at 175u109...i guess they got action on the under.

 

[GunnerS]

Lucky for those who choose over.

 

[NickDouglas]

daveycaps, you have no idea what you're talking about. First of all the public loses because they can't manage their money, not because they can't pick games. If you use fading the public as a serious handicapping technique you'll end up just like the public -- broke.

 

[WalkofLife]

Pinnacle leans... the everlasting discussion!!!

I have read through this thread and I would tend to agree with those of you that stated that one should only play a line if your research shows you there's value in the line offered.

Now if you are the scum of the earth, like this dude Lander, and you like to SUCK THE VALUE out of the market through "middling/scalping" (arbitraging), then Pinnacle might offer you a good standing leg for those middles.

But if you're not middling/scalping... foggedaboutit. You'll lose more time trying to figure out what the lean really is than actually playing.

Good sharp player = Wilheim
A shameless whore = Lander

For some stupid reason I think this is a hillarious thread.