When Gambling, is it Better to Follow Good Teams ? or Fade Bad Teams ?

[Betallsports]

Going to say Both

 

[JustinCruise]

I think that taking any SINGLE approach to sports gambling will always result in long term losses. There are a ton of factors that have to be considered in every game. If it was as easy as just following one single approach like fading bad teams we could all quit our day jobs.

 

[RenoChazz]

I'd say its probably better to do the opposite of both, in the long run, probably more likely to get an advantageous number.

 

[slapshot]

both

 

[packer2012]

I'd say its probably better to do the opposite of both, in the long run, probably more likely to get an advantageous number.

Reno..... remember to look next time up at the cashier.... see it they are paying you ANYTHING for having an advantageous number.

A key ingredient in lines makers posting lines is team’s most recent performance. Winning streaks or losing streaks and against who.

To say that you want to probably consistently buck both these trends..... to get a better line...... ?????

 

[scottcarter]

Going to say Both

way to sit on the fence :nohead:

 

[RenoChazz]

Reno..... remember to look next time up at the cashier.... see it they are paying you ANYTHING for having an advantageous number.

A key ingredient in lines makers posting lines is team’s most recent performance. Winning streaks or losing streaks and against who.

To say that you want to probably consistently buck both these trends..... to get a better line...... ?????

You're looking at it in the short term. Books are very aware of trends; and the odds you get are everything. I see some offshores will even put up trends for you. They adjust they're lines for trends and sometimes over adjust them. No different than laying big favorites cause they have the best chances of winning doesn't mean you profit just because you win more games than you lose. At the end of the day consistently getting a good number is how you profit. Odds of an event happening and the odds you get matter more than short term trends, and short term results.

 

[HacheMan]

Can't honestly say either make a difference in my wagering.

But I have a feeling if the question was in regards to following & fading good or bad cappers, we'd hear a mix of answers...

 

[packer2012]

Reno.....

I am just saying that most recent trends do have a lot to do with setting prices. To go against current trends because you feel like you got the best of the price..... that can bite your backside in the short term. Because getting a better price will reflect positively over time..... but short term having the right team regardless of the price is all that matters.

Dose that make any sense?

 

[Vlad the Impaler]

I would say most would want to fade the Royals right now. In baseball last season at least, I would often fade the Astros at -1.5. You could martingale that at a 4 game progression and i think it paid everytime without laying extreme juice

 

[Keef]

Laugh as you will and I don't have stats but I like betting against duke when nationally televised mid week. They seem to be inflated more times than not.

I also take note of a team that has lost the first two games of a 3 game set (mlb). Not blindly and always a decent sized dog.

 

[shdw01]

I like when both are deceptive. "Bad teams" that are.pretty good and "good teams" that rent the best are my fav

 

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Don't do either but I did some tracking years ago and found that it's better to follow streaks than to fade them; that applied a little more to winning streaks.

 

[HacheMan]

Don't do either but I did some tracking years ago and found that it's better to follow streaks than to fade them; that applied a little more to winning streaks.

Yep I think that's definitely been the case more than not, especially in the NBA...

 

[bigbet1234]

Isn't that a oxymoron?

 

[Willie99]

fading a bad team doesn't work for me

I'm much better at picking a team I think can win

 

[DogDaze]

You're looking at it in the short term. Books are very aware of trends; and the odds you get are everything. I see some offshores will even put up trends for you. They adjust they're lines for trends and sometimes over adjust them. No different than laying big favorites cause they have the best chances of winning doesn't mean you profit just because you win more games than you lose. At the end of the day consistently getting a good number is how you profit. Odds of an event happening and the odds you get matter more than short term trends, and short term results.

Agreed.

 

[HarryCaray]

I'd say its probably better to do the opposite of both, in the long run, probably more likely to get an advantageous number.

You've made some posts here lately that are just spot on, I totally agree with the way you think.

 

[RenoChazz]

You've made some posts here lately that are just spot on, I totally agree with the way you think.

Thankyou)(&

 

[Cyyyyk]

A key ingredient in lines makers posting lines is team’s most recent performance. Winning streaks or losing streaks and against who.

To say that you want to probably consistently buck both these trends..... to get a better line...... ?????

The point is that the market tends to overvalue recent trends so you can get good value going against them.