his velocity is down 4-6mph.
a post on a message board made this great analogy.
despite the fact that his speed on his fastball is down, its not affecting his changeup. meaning - his changeup, around 86-88 is barely slower than his 91-93mph fastball. now take schmidt at his highest peak, when he was topping 98mph, and you have a massive difference.
so essentially schmidt is currently trying to be an ace with the following features.
2 pitches - 1 fastball/changeup (same speeds), and his slider.
average speed
horrible command - his walks are up extrememly high
my honest guess is that he is experiencing dead arm. or a serious injury.
i remember three years ago/2 years ago when i would watch him pitch for the giants. honestly, they pitched him with no insight or anticipation on what so many complete games would do to him. he is a POWER pitcher. POWER pitchers have a hard time turning off the POWER even in a late game. when you pitch up to 5 CG per year, and then many many games until the 7th or 8th - thats eventually going to catch up to you.
here are some stats.
prior to becoming a san francisco giant, schmidt pitched 7 CGs (8 years)
since being in SF, he has pitched 12 in three and a half years.
i know people mature, and players can get better with age and experience, but that takes its toll on you.
he has never had more than 3 consecutive strong seasons. last year was his third consecutive strong season. he has had 6 quality seasons in the league. each 3 season stint, was followed by 2 seasons of injuries.
and i hate to say it, but i think he is there. when he is on, he is fun to watch. his commend is excellent and his confidence is unmatched.
but i blame the giants managmenet for not doing just that. managing him to be their ace for years to come.
i think jake peavey might be on this pace too. depending on the amount of work he gets this seasons, i think the padres overuse him. but when both teams, the giants and padres have had problems in their bullpens, its no wonder than cant help but think about the now and not the future.
my warning signs when off when i heard about his first DL stint this year (schmidt). thats never a good sign for a power pitcher. especially when the diagnosis of why he was getting 2 weeks off wasn't anywhere near descriptive. he didn't throw for two weeks.
the giants are in serious trouble right now. if that wasn't obvious enough...
