yardage, yardage, yardage........yardage is the #1 thing.....yardage gained, yardage allowed....in every category..........
turnovers and sacks are #2 on the list to look at.......
i derive my own theoretical point spread for each game......
if the line is off of my spread by 3-4 points....then it is a small play.........
if it is off by 5-7 points, then it is a regular play
anything more than 8 points constitutes a stronger play
halftime lines are the easiest ways to obtain nice bargains based on the same principles.........here is a formula I use for halftimes
For NFL 2nd half plays.....here is the formula that is used to arrive at a decision.........for the purposes of this board....i will use ratings of 1-5 units .......i will first explain how to arrive at a line for the side.........followed by the total...........
The side:
Compare total yardage between the two teams in the first half. Do NOT count punt returns and special teams yardage. Just passing and rushing yardage. 100 yards = 7 points......give each team on paper the number of points compared to the yardage they earned.
If the 1st half score does not match the yardage in the 1st half........DON'T worry about it......
Any points resulting from a turnover in the first half........disregard completely in your mind when making the final decision.......
Next......compare the number of sacks, fumbles, interceptions for each team and give the other team 3 points for each one (or subtract 3 points from the team that messed up)......
Remember.......we are trying to create our own "theoretical" point spread for the second half.......
After you have given the necessary points to each team, the difference, should be the prediction for the second half.......regardless of the first half score......(unless one team is completely blowing the other team out like 28-0, then you would expect them to be more conservative and it is a no play)
If your theoretical pointspread differential is the following from the posted line at your book, I would make the following plays:
0-2 point differential = NO PLAY
3-5 point differential = 1 or 2 unit play
6-7 point differential = 3 unit play
over 7 point differential = 4 unit play .......UNLESS the team is on the 2nd half underdog.......then make it a 5 unit play!
2nd half TOTALS in the NFL......
compare passing yards ONLY from the 1st half.........for each 100 yards of passing......equate that to 10 points for the second half.........remember.......do NOT worry about what the actual score was in the 1st half unless it is a completely blowout and you expect one team to run the ball because of it......
so for example.......last sunday night.......tampa/oakland.......1st half passing yards equalled somewhere around 270 yards between the two teams.....that would give you an estimated 25 points in the second half.........also....there were five scores in the first half and four of them were field goals..(just using common sense).......the second half line was 17.5 o/u..........for a differential of 7.5 points from our own theoretical total and thus a 4 unit play!!! The game sailed over the 17.5 and that is how it is supposed to work........use the point differential ratings the same as you did for the game line above.
You also have to take into account the play you have on the game itself and you dont want to get caught in a bad middle yourself......if you see the game is going against what you played initially, it might be a good way to get off the game completely.......but dont get caught in a middle that is gonna make you lose more .......sometimes you have to just pray your original selection holds up and not make a second half play if that is what it comes to
this is for NFL only.......College is a little trickier
turnovers and sacks are #2 on the list to look at.......
i derive my own theoretical point spread for each game......
if the line is off of my spread by 3-4 points....then it is a small play.........
if it is off by 5-7 points, then it is a regular play
anything more than 8 points constitutes a stronger play
halftime lines are the easiest ways to obtain nice bargains based on the same principles.........here is a formula I use for halftimes
For NFL 2nd half plays.....here is the formula that is used to arrive at a decision.........for the purposes of this board....i will use ratings of 1-5 units .......i will first explain how to arrive at a line for the side.........followed by the total...........
The side:
Compare total yardage between the two teams in the first half. Do NOT count punt returns and special teams yardage. Just passing and rushing yardage. 100 yards = 7 points......give each team on paper the number of points compared to the yardage they earned.
If the 1st half score does not match the yardage in the 1st half........DON'T worry about it......
Any points resulting from a turnover in the first half........disregard completely in your mind when making the final decision.......
Next......compare the number of sacks, fumbles, interceptions for each team and give the other team 3 points for each one (or subtract 3 points from the team that messed up)......
Remember.......we are trying to create our own "theoretical" point spread for the second half.......
After you have given the necessary points to each team, the difference, should be the prediction for the second half.......regardless of the first half score......(unless one team is completely blowing the other team out like 28-0, then you would expect them to be more conservative and it is a no play)
If your theoretical pointspread differential is the following from the posted line at your book, I would make the following plays:
0-2 point differential = NO PLAY
3-5 point differential = 1 or 2 unit play
6-7 point differential = 3 unit play
over 7 point differential = 4 unit play .......UNLESS the team is on the 2nd half underdog.......then make it a 5 unit play!
2nd half TOTALS in the NFL......
compare passing yards ONLY from the 1st half.........for each 100 yards of passing......equate that to 10 points for the second half.........remember.......do NOT worry about what the actual score was in the 1st half unless it is a completely blowout and you expect one team to run the ball because of it......
so for example.......last sunday night.......tampa/oakland.......1st half passing yards equalled somewhere around 270 yards between the two teams.....that would give you an estimated 25 points in the second half.........also....there were five scores in the first half and four of them were field goals..(just using common sense).......the second half line was 17.5 o/u..........for a differential of 7.5 points from our own theoretical total and thus a 4 unit play!!! The game sailed over the 17.5 and that is how it is supposed to work........use the point differential ratings the same as you did for the game line above.
You also have to take into account the play you have on the game itself and you dont want to get caught in a bad middle yourself......if you see the game is going against what you played initially, it might be a good way to get off the game completely.......but dont get caught in a middle that is gonna make you lose more .......sometimes you have to just pray your original selection holds up and not make a second half play if that is what it comes to
this is for NFL only.......College is a little trickier
Begin with the best line you can find. Take basketball. Ideally with shopping I can find 1.5 point difference, in spread, a little optimistic. I could bet both sides and likely break even long-term. I effectively have a no-vig line now. Now I must pick the right side about 55% of the time, that's the hard part.Moon88 said:
WOW defend. That is some write up. I have to take some time to take that all n, Im keeping a copy of this for my files and I rearely do that! Nice post.
Thanks for this.
tell us more often what plays qualify, stay in touch here.
Thanks for this.
tell us more often what plays qualify, stay in touch here.
one BIG misconception that the general public has on 2nd half plays is that if the favorite is down in the first half, it is okay to take them in the second half because they are BOUND to get back into the game......they are the favorite in the first place right??? WRONG!!
what happened in the first half GENERALLY ....is most likely to happen in the 2nd half....except those points off of turnovers and punt returns and things like that.....
if you see the patriots -7 for the game and they are down by 10 at the half.......and you bet the patriots -7.5 for the 2nd half......you MOST LIKELY...are a square bettor that the books will love....there would have to have been some MAJOR strange things going on with the stats to cause me to come back on the pats -7.5 in this situation and more often than not.....a play on the dog would probably constitue something of a strong play.....
dont get caught up in what the original line was when betting 2nd half's is what i am getting at
what happened in the first half GENERALLY ....is most likely to happen in the 2nd half....except those points off of turnovers and punt returns and things like that.....
if you see the patriots -7 for the game and they are down by 10 at the half.......and you bet the patriots -7.5 for the 2nd half......you MOST LIKELY...are a square bettor that the books will love....there would have to have been some MAJOR strange things going on with the stats to cause me to come back on the pats -7.5 in this situation and more often than not.....a play on the dog would probably constitue something of a strong play.....
dont get caught up in what the original line was when betting 2nd half's is what i am getting at
