For the vast majority of time, yes. Probably 85% of my baseball bets are either + money or -110 or less. I think as a GENERAL rule it is wise to stay away from high juice. General being the key word here. However I don't hold myself in a box where I can't go outside a certain limit. If I see value in a big fav I will take it. All i'm saying is in sports betting you have to have the ability to think dynamically rather than having a linear viewpoint on any scenario.
I agree with Justin, if you think there's value get it. Knowing the proper stake to make to counter the variance is what's important. Keep this in mind though, the bigger the Dog and the bigger the Favorite, the more vig you will have to overcome. So it's probably a good rule not to bet them, since it will be far and few in between that you find value there. If you are betting big dogs and favorites as a rule you will lose.
Because if you are laying $450 to Win $100 and Lose, it will take a while to get out of that Hole.
I've seen guys lay this kind of chalk and get Buried, then try to dig them self out and most of the time it only gets worst.
If you parlay them $100 to win say... $250 or whatever, if you lose at least it's only $100 bucks.
Getting reduced juice is huge when managing variance. Most ML's are 10( when reduced) or 20 cents only up to a certain point. People don't realize that when you play the big favs and dogs you are paying more juice and it will kill you faster than reduced juice. Most lines that are -300 will be +250 on the other side, thats 50 cents of vig! And the higher you go the more vig they put into the lines. Generally it's a bad idea.
You are not avoiding a -400 price by parlaying it with another -400. You are actually betting that line twice. One should not think they are doing so by parlaying. What one is actually doing with a 100 dollar parlay is risking 100 to win 25, then (providing it wins) risking 125 to win 36. One should not falsely believe they are avoiding high prices by parlaying. In actuality, they are doing it multiple times.
+1
As far as cut offs, probably depends on the sport. I think with baseball you tread closer to the -110 mark. But college sports in general, most games are very tilted with heavy favorites/dogs so I would speculate most have higher cut off points for those sports with regards to favorites.
For me, I never bet ml favs in the nfl. Exception would be in the Super Bowl where the ml for, say, a 7 point favorite trends closer to -220 as opposed to the -300 you wil find during regular season.
For me, I never bet ml favs in the nfl. Exception would be in the Super Bowl where the ml for, say, a 7 point favorite trends closer to -220 as opposed to the -300 you wil find during regular season.
