What's up with the ATL/NO line holding at 3?

[bradyisgod]

Am I missing something on this game? Seems fishy because ATL's RB is a beast this year, Matty Ice is on fire and he has a bunch of weapons. I'm aware that Julio Jones and their Center is out but still. New Orleans looks terrible this year on every front minus Brees who may or may not be playing full health. What is going on with this line? I feel like this is bet of the year material but I don't want to go crazy here. Feel like unloading on this game but I'm coming off a 2 loss streak - trying not to get suckered and want to really think this over before I go big.

I feel like this line should be way higher and I expect it to shoot up if I had to guess. I know home field is worth 3 points, but damn! BOL to both sides!

 

[bradyisgod]

Also I'm aware that they've barely won some games which makes them look overrated. Maybe they are. But they are still playing great and have beaten some noteworthy teams where NO's only win has come against Weeden and the Cowboys (they barely won at that). Devonta Freeman is 2nd in rush yards. Matty ice is 3rd in passing yards.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Line opened Atlanta -3.5, & someone pounded to 3.........maybe some big boys think its gonna be a fg game.

 

[United]

Jones is supposed to play according to the coach, at least that's what's flashing across the ESPN ticker news

of course colts coach said Luck would play two games ago, so who knows for sure

 

[DumpsterFire]

I think it is just another Thursday divisional game that is hard to cap. First, a lot of people were on Washington to cover the spread because Atlanta has a Thursday game against a bad Saints team. Yes, Atlanta has the stats, but that last week ended with some Espn ticker injuries. That was a tougher game than they expected. That first half looked like they were planning on field goals to win the game. New Orleans defense is pretty damn bad, but they can pull miracles out of their ass like every other team against a divisional rival. Especially one with a overworked Jones, and who the hell knows what that O-line is feeling. It is still an offense run by Kyle Shanahan. He seems to just wear people down during stretches.

That is my current opinion that might need to be on fire somewhere. Probably a dumpster. BOL all!

 

[RDuddy]

My guess is the line is "just" 3 due to a historically competitive divisional game, a Saints team that has typically beat atl and won the division, and the underdogs have done well on Thursday nights so far this season.

I like and bet atl, but not that heavily. Upset wouldn't be that surprising.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Line opened Atlanta -3.5, & someone pounded to 3.........maybe some big boys think its gonna be a fg game.

Incorrect, opened at 3 and gradually is rising.

 

[powerz]

Book Maker Opening Line

10/11/2015 7:50:50 PM

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

-2.5-110

2.5-110

98%

2%

WestGate Opening Line

10/11/2015 7:20:55 PM

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

-3.5-110

3.5-110

100%

0%

 

[dealiak]

I think the Julio Jones injury could make bettors look towards the Saints and hoping for a cover. Plus, Matt Ryan historical has played poorly away from home...however, in NO he is still in a dome so I am not penalizing him for that in my capping. I like atl but if saints win, I wouldn't be shocked

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Line released in the Spring had NWO -3.5. We are getting an full TD move. Image is everything!
Besides their 2015 results/records... what else has changed to warrant that besides public perception?
Won't this game be like the biggest game on NWO schedule now if it wasn't already? Also why NWO made PHI look good on sunday?

 

[athan12]

Looking at the stats and how each team plays, and each team records. The Falcons should be atleast -7. But the vegas knows the Saints will win this so they don't want to put Saints +7 with a moneyline of +500.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Falcons now -3.5 everywhere.......

 

[bradyisgod]

Trends are just a number that should factored into your overall decision. In my opinion, betting the better team here since the Saints are drastically different than their winning years as the Falcons are better than previous years, far outweighs betting a team because they do well at home. I expect the line to creep up and looks like it's already doing so. I can see reasons for sharps taking saints, but I can see better reasons for going Falcons.

 

[thesportsforecaster]

Drew Brees at home is 7-2 SU vs Falcons with 1 of the losses in OT, so historically Brees has played extremely well vs the Falcons at the Superdome, plus divisional rivalry plays a part as well



cheers


tsf

 

[athan12]

Teams that went OT, short week, and AWAY have a bad ATS record. This trend is really hard to go against since it makes a lot of sense. The falcons may have been playing very good these past games, but these players are humans. They also get tired and might to not play at 100%.

 

[Cantpickem]

Line opened Atlanta -3.5, & someone pounded to 3.........maybe some big boys think its gonna be a fg game.

Where did you see the line opening at -3.5?

 

[bradyisgod]

Yeah I see that the trends point to an NO win. Still on Falcons @ -2.5 but won't go more than a unit.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Where did you see the line opening at -3.5?

Vegas insider......

 

[Cantpickem]

Vegas insider......

I found an earlier line from Chris came out on the 11th at 07:50:48 Eastern time (The times in the table are Pacific time).

10/14/15 08:56:21am	-3½-105	+3½-115
10/14/15 08:56:15am		+3½+115
10/14/15 08:55:58am	-3½-125	+3½+105
10/14/15 07:54:34am	-3-125	+3+105
10/13/15 11:57:54am	-3-120	+3+100
10/13/15 10:01:00am	-3-115	+3-105
10/13/15 10:00:54am	-3-110	+3-110
10/13/15 09:12:49am	-3-115	+3-105
10/13/15 05:51:10am	-3-110	+3-110
10/13/15 05:34:43am	-3-105	+3-115
10/13/15 05:34:41am	-3-106	+3-114
10/12/15 07:02:33pm	-3-113	+3-106
10/12/15 04:30:00pm	-3-125	+3+105
10/12/15 04:29:50pm	-3-130	+3+110
10/12/15 09:52:01am	-3-125	+3+105
10/12/15 07:04:37am	-3-120	+3+100
10/11/15 05:07:11pm	-3-115	+3-105
10/11/15 04:54:45pm	-3-111	+3-109
10/11/15 04:52:54pm	-3-110	+3-110
10/11/15 04:51:21pm	-3-105	+3-115
10/11/15 04:51:19pm	-3-116	+3-104
10/11/15 04:51:11pm	-2½-116	+2½-104
10/11/15 04:50:48pm	-2½-110	+2½-110

 

[Cantpickem]

I found an earlier line from Chris came out on the 11th at 07:50:48 Eastern time (The times in the table are Pacific time).

10/14/15 08:56:21am	-3½-105	+3½-115
10/14/15 08:56:15am		+3½+115
10/14/15 08:55:58am	-3½-125	+3½+105
10/14/15 07:54:34am	-3-125	+3+105
10/13/15 11:57:54am	-3-120	+3+100
10/13/15 10:01:00am	-3-115	+3-105
10/13/15 10:00:54am	-3-110	+3-110
10/13/15 09:12:49am	-3-115	+3-105
10/13/15 05:51:10am	-3-110	+3-110
10/13/15 05:34:43am	-3-105	+3-115
10/13/15 05:34:41am	-3-106	+3-114
10/12/15 07:02:33pm	-3-113	+3-106
10/12/15 04:30:00pm	-3-125	+3+105
10/12/15 04:29:50pm	-3-130	+3+110
10/12/15 09:52:01am	-3-125	+3+105
10/12/15 07:04:37am	-3-120	+3+100
10/11/15 05:07:11pm	-3-115	+3-105
10/11/15 04:54:45pm	-3-111	+3-109
10/11/15 04:52:54pm	-3-110	+3-110
10/11/15 04:51:21pm	-3-105	+3-115
10/11/15 04:51:19pm	-3-116	+3-104
10/11/15 04:51:11pm	-2½-116	+2½-104
10/11/15 04:50:48pm	-2½-110	+2½-110

BETONLINE had an earlier line @ 7:21 and 39 sec. Here it is but I suspect the linemaker at Chris set his own line @-2.5

10/14/15 08:55:42am	-3½-105	+3½-115
10/13/15 09:28:10am	-3-120	+3+100
10/13/15 05:51:16am	-3-115	+3-105
10/12/15 07:02:27pm	-3-120	+3+100
10/12/15 04:28:49pm	-3-125	+3+105
10/12/15 07:15:36am	-3½-110	+3½-110
10/11/15 09:06:08pm	-3-124	+3+104
10/11/15 08:53:41pm	-3-123	+3+103
10/11/15 08:20:24pm	-3-122	+3+102
10/11/15 08:14:27pm	-3-120	+3+100
10/11/15 04:55:01pm	-3-115	+3-105
10/11/15 04:34:24pm	-3-110	+3-110
10/11/15 04:21:39pm	-3-120	+3+100