MLB is my primary gig so I have a lot of strategies that I dont really wanna give up...... but here is one I used to use when I could count on a liquid in-game market (like on Betfair or Bet365). Find a highly regarded starting pitcher that tends to struggle in the first or second inning. Most pre-game lines are very heavily weighted towards the team throwing up the best starter...... but if the favored starter gives up a couple of runs in the first or second inning the odds will likely turn upside down for a while.
Take the underdog on the pre-game and then take the pre-game favorite in-game if the favored starter gives up some early runs. If the starter does not give up early runs you still have a bet on the underdog which is typically where the pre-game value is anyway.
For example say the underdog is pre-game at +225 and you take $100 units.
After the second inning lets say the favored starter has given up two runs and now the pre-game favorite is at +150. So you play the pre-game favorite at +150 for $130 units.
Now no matter what the outcome at this point you have locked in a $95 unit profit.
If after the early innings the starter did not give up any runs you still have the original underdog at +225 which only has to hit 1/3 of the time to have a positive EV.
Forgive me if I made a mistake in my example as I have not done this one in a while (since I moved to the US) but I used to have some good results with it back then.
Take the underdog on the pre-game and then take the pre-game favorite in-game if the favored starter gives up some early runs. If the starter does not give up early runs you still have a bet on the underdog which is typically where the pre-game value is anyway.
For example say the underdog is pre-game at +225 and you take $100 units.
After the second inning lets say the favored starter has given up two runs and now the pre-game favorite is at +150. So you play the pre-game favorite at +150 for $130 units.
Now no matter what the outcome at this point you have locked in a $95 unit profit.
If after the early innings the starter did not give up any runs you still have the original underdog at +225 which only has to hit 1/3 of the time to have a positive EV.
Forgive me if I made a mistake in my example as I have not done this one in a while (since I moved to the US) but I used to have some good results with it back then.
I'd be making a fortune if I could figure out a way to fade myself lately. Just so many brutal beats in baseball this week alone that it isn't funny. It seems like 70-80% of the league is right around .500, which means any matchup can go any way on any given night. Not much value out there with this teams so evenly matched.
Anyway, one strategy of mine is I very, very rarely take a home team on the run line. If a game is tied after 8 innings, it'll take a multi-run HR for the home team to cover...which doesn't happen often. Road favorites can rally and continue to score as long as they like in the top half of each inning. I've lost far more bets on run line home teams who won by one run than I care to remember. And speaking of run lines, why would anyone want to lay juice on a team +1.5? The only way it makes sense is if your team loses by exactly one run.
Another is the only play that has consistently hit for me this year: 1st 5 innings under the run total whenever two dominant pitchers go at it. This play should allow you to avoid getting screwed by bullpens since a pitcher should be able to last five innings even with a high pitch count. The line is determined by the starting pitchers...why leave it up to a bullpen and lose your value if it's tied late?
Anyway, one strategy of mine is I very, very rarely take a home team on the run line. If a game is tied after 8 innings, it'll take a multi-run HR for the home team to cover...which doesn't happen often. Road favorites can rally and continue to score as long as they like in the top half of each inning. I've lost far more bets on run line home teams who won by one run than I care to remember. And speaking of run lines, why would anyone want to lay juice on a team +1.5? The only way it makes sense is if your team loses by exactly one run.
Another is the only play that has consistently hit for me this year: 1st 5 innings under the run total whenever two dominant pitchers go at it. This play should allow you to avoid getting screwed by bullpens since a pitcher should be able to last five innings even with a high pitch count. The line is determined by the starting pitchers...why leave it up to a bullpen and lose your value if it's tied late?
Sometimes use the chase system on alt. run line for shit teams against decent teams. 95% will be + money. Teams like Astros will inevitable lose by 2 runs at least once every 4 games. Or use same system against really shitty offensive teams....or same system on the overs in games in Milwaukee. I like alt. run lines but have been burned by them many times. Mariners burnt me like 3 games in a row. I nearly got out of my straight jacket I was so upset
