What's more shocking.. Trump Losing Iowa or Bernie Tying Hillary?

[Defying]

?

 

[The Guesser]

Trump losing by tons. Hillary and Berne were in a tie in Iowa, within the margin of error. Trump had close to a double digit lead in the polls. Trump is the story, both when he was winning, and now when he lost.

 

[CHOPTALK]

This has the makings of the most fucked up election of all time on both sides .

I would not be proud to be a R or a D right now.

Totally disgusting

 

[MikeB]

Trump conceded 3-4 days ago

Hillary Clinton had "The Machine" working OT and ended up with a statistical tie, knowing she is going to get her clock cleaned in NH.

 

[AlwayzRight]

?

Bernie, for sure. He went from 5% to 50%. He will now take NH easily. He has the momentum. Not good for Hillary. I wouldn't say Trump "lost" Iowa. He will get close to half the delegates and will win NH....

 

[Greenbacks]

I`ll say Trump no doubt.

Trump this,Trump that...He`s ahead in this poll and that poll the Monmouth poll the Quinnipiac polls.

Meanwhile he throws in a clunker tonight.

Honestly I didn`t see that coming.

 

[Greenbacks]

Hillary and Sanders were separated by 1 or 2 points in Iowa.

Trump was at least 7 points ahead as early as this afternoon.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Bernie, for sure. He went from 5% to 50%. He will now take NH easily. He has the momentum. Not good for Hillary. I wouldn't say Trump "lost" Iowa. He will get close to half the delegates and will win NH....

Trump has big problems. He needed to dominate early.
He needed to create the illusion that there is no other competition.
Tonight hurt that.

Iowa is not unlike other states.
People are making the mistake of saying Iowa is some sideways state that don't matter.

Well there are about 25 other states at least just like Iowa and this was trumps big chance to prove he can win a state like Iowa and he failed.

Not only did he fail but he brought Rubio into the spotlight in the process.

Now as people start to drop out its going to make it even more difficult because Trump is not very many peoples 2nd choice so almost all the votes of the dropouts is going to go to Rubio and Cruz.


Trump also had that aura of being a winner and being invincible that a lot of people kinda latched onto.

He lost some of that to.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Neither is really shocking but the manner in which Trump lost is a bigger surprise. He was ahead in all the polls and not only did Cruz beat him soundly, but Rubio was right there with him. Just wasn't expected at all. This with huge turnout which was expected to favor Trump as well.

People pretty much knew if Sanders could get a huge turnout that he would be competitive with Hilary. The turnout was in question.

 

[Greenbacks]

Look at this Iowa poll...34 for Trump to 23 for Cruz.

 

[Greenbacks]

11 point lead...That`s huge no matter how you look at it.

N.H. 31 to 14...wow

That might not even hold up

 

[Greenbacks]

This is the overall poll....Only 10 days ago....These leads are huge for Trump....As far as the polls go.

 

[Greenbacks]

Rubio is at 12 in that Iowa Poll above...He ended up with 24.

Let me be the 1st to say....Fuck the polls....lol

 

[CHOPTALK]

Trump is gonna need to absolutely blow everyone out in NH just to slow(not stop) the bleeding .

I still think he wins NH but he is gonna need style points.

 

[Greenbacks]

CNN is knocking Trumps ground game...Praising Cruz`s ground game.

 

[The Guesser]

Hilllary/Bernie in Iowa is being decided by Coin Toss in certain districts. Hillary is 4 ahead overall, and she is 3-0 in known Coin tosses. If she went 1-2, she'd be losing. Incredible how much betting money will be decided because of coin tosses.hno:

 

[The Guesser]

Latest NH Polls before Tonight.

Polling Data

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Trump	Cruz	Kasich	Bush	Rubio	Christie	Fiorina	Carson	Paul	Huckabee	Santorum	Spread
RCP Average	1/23 - 1/31	--	33.2	11.5	11.5	10.3	9.5	6.5	3.5	3.2	3.0	0.7	0.3	Trump +21.7
UMass Lowell/7News	1/29 - 1/31	461 LV	38	12	9	9	8	7	2	3	3	0	1	Trump +26
CNN/WMUR	1/27 - 1/30	409 LV	30	12	9	6	11	8	4	3	3	1	0	Trump +18
Boston Herald/FPU	1/26 - 1/30	439 LV	38	13	8	10	10	5	5	3	5	1	0	Trump +25
Suffolk University	1/25 - 1/27	500 LV	27	12	12	11	10	6	4	5	2	0	0	Trump +15
Emerson	1/25 - 1/26	373 LV	35	8	14	18	9	5	3	3	3	1	0	Trump +17
ARG	1/23 - 1/25	600 LV	31	12	17	8	9	8	3	2	2	1	1	Trump +14

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</tbody>

All New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data​

​

 

[SheriffJoe]

11 point lead...That`s huge no matter how you look at it.

N.H. 31 to 14...wow

That might not even hold up

I'm a Cruz guy but I would be shocked if Trump didn't win New Hampshire.

Iowa 2008: Huckabee
Iowa 2012: Santorum

New Hampshire 2008: McCain
New Hampshire 2012: Romney

Reminds me of an old axiom in politics...Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.

No need to panic...yet.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Joe what do you attribute the discrepancy in the betting markets and the actual results to?

Just not factoring in the organization advantages in the campaigns?

Also Trump should win NH since all those other guys polling at 5% will suck support from Cruz/Rubio. The longer the field is fragmented should favor him.

 

[Greenbacks]

I hope he wins N.H....lol

CNN says they screwed up the count on the Dem side.....Bunch of idiots

Not enough staff...Some stupid shit like that.