Yards gained & allowed or turnovers?
Everyone handicaps differently and there are many different ways to get to what we feel is the winner in an NFL match-up. Some have the ability to break down a game position by position. Others use a computer to input data. Some are able to watch a game to come to a solid conclusion. Others use trends and angles to arrive at the pointspread winner.
For me it's a combination of these factors that lead to what team I back with my hard earned cash. But for those who don't have the time to do thorough handicapping I give you the two most important factors in cashing an NFL ticket: Turnovers and Average Yards Per Pass Attempt.
For me it's a combination of these factors that lead to what team I back with my hard earned cash. But for those who don't have the time to do thorough handicapping I give you the two most important factors in cashing an NFL ticket: Turnovers and Average Yards Per Pass Attempt.
"You cant cap turnovers."
Disagree. If you looked closely at the Browns performance last week you would have noticed they were (2) in turnovers. Those turnovers didn't matter last week but this week two of those turnovers turned into 14 points for the Steelers.
Disagree. If you looked closely at the Browns performance last week you would have noticed they were (2) in turnovers. Those turnovers didn't matter last week but this week two of those turnovers turned into 14 points for the Steelers.
I like net yards per play and key matchups using PFF grades (after 5 weeks of logs). In CFB, I put my focus on fundamentals. Teams that don't block well, miss a lot of tackles or struggle to shed blocks. In the NFL, I find crucial the game styling of the coaches.
A team with a turnover margin of +2 or more could be a team to fade
while a team with a turnover margin of -2 or worse could be a team to back the following week.
public tends to over react to turnovers
rather than total yards
.Ultimately, performance on first and second downs measure how efficient an offense is at either getting to third-and-short
or avoiding third down entirely — in other words, how well an offense can keep its odds of maintaining possession long enough to score.
, passing efficiency is the most predictive metric of score differential other than turnovers,
which we know are almost impossible to predict in a vacuum, but are much likely to occur on passes —
where either an interception or fumble can occur — than on runs where only a fumble is possible
First and second down are a lot more predictive of future performance than third and fourth for two reasons:
The offense's play-calling options aren't limited by distance needed for a first down,
and thus the defense has to account for both the run and pass.
The odds of moving the chains on third and fourth down are worse than 50% at any distance of more than 2 yards to go,
and are cumulatively 33% when 3-plus yards are needed.
Over the long run, yards are more predictive of future points than previous points.
So after making some adjustments for strength of schedule, look at yards per play much more than total points or points per play.
give more weight to passing offense and defense, since in today's NFL most games are won or lost based on the ability
to move the ball and prevent the other team from moving the ball aerially.
while a team with a turnover margin of -2 or worse could be a team to back the following week.
public tends to over react to turnovers
rather than total yards
.Ultimately, performance on first and second downs measure how efficient an offense is at either getting to third-and-short
or avoiding third down entirely — in other words, how well an offense can keep its odds of maintaining possession long enough to score.
, passing efficiency is the most predictive metric of score differential other than turnovers,
which we know are almost impossible to predict in a vacuum, but are much likely to occur on passes —
where either an interception or fumble can occur — than on runs where only a fumble is possible
First and second down are a lot more predictive of future performance than third and fourth for two reasons:
The offense's play-calling options aren't limited by distance needed for a first down,
and thus the defense has to account for both the run and pass.
The odds of moving the chains on third and fourth down are worse than 50% at any distance of more than 2 yards to go,
and are cumulatively 33% when 3-plus yards are needed.
Over the long run, yards are more predictive of future points than previous points.
So after making some adjustments for strength of schedule, look at yards per play much more than total points or points per play.
give more weight to passing offense and defense, since in today's NFL most games are won or lost based on the ability
to move the ball and prevent the other team from moving the ball aerially.
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Yards gained in the game isn’t the same as it use to be. Now teams are playing laid back defense and trying to force field goals
you can for sure cap turnovers though. Some teams and qb are more prone to it than others.
can’t stand when someone loses a game and says we should have won if it weren’t for a turnover or return or whatever it is.
case in point the following teams won the yardage but lost the game
lions
Titans
Rams
Denver
Cleveland
happens weekly. 5 teams in week one did the same
you can for sure cap turnovers though. Some teams and qb are more prone to it than others.
can’t stand when someone loses a game and says we should have won if it weren’t for a turnover or return or whatever it is.
case in point the following teams won the yardage but lost the game
lions
Titans
Rams
Denver
Cleveland
happens weekly. 5 teams in week one did the same
Personally red zone efficiency matters to me. And got to figure in the coach with that as well. Some coaches will always take the 3. Others are more aggressive.
Think I saw Detroit go for it in a tie game on 4 and 6 from inside the 20. Didn’t care for the 3 at all.
That’s another way the game has changed and have to “cap” With it
Think I saw Detroit go for it in a tie game on 4 and 6 from inside the 20. Didn’t care for the 3 at all.
That’s another way the game has changed and have to “cap” With it
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Fourth Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com
NFL Football fourth down conversion percentage, by team.
www.teamrankings.com
Also impt
I was thinking the same thing. He says not to go into his thread and make worthless posts but he was the FIRST one to respond with hate and rudeness. Just because he doesn't understand the importance of turnovers doesn't mean he should be allowed to come in and shit in my thread. Mods?
Last night the Browns committed four turnovers. When teams commit 4 turnovers or more in the first three weeks of the season on MNF they are 0-26 SU s/'90. Obviously this number holds true most of the time but if 0-26 doesn't grab your attention...
I used to think like that a long time ago. Not anymore.
You mean the Chargers won. Damn I thought ...lemme look. Hmm just a error, maybe the Chargers outgained, but surely the Afc South eventual champ isn't gonna lose to Staleys comet?
I;ll give you the floor Louie.
Tell me how many points you will give up in the next game on turnovers.???
Problem is you couldnt cap the game for that BEFORE it was played? Plus Pitt had turnovers also.
You use a stat that is irrelevant on the next game coming up.
Like I said.
Tell me how many points you will give up in the next game on turnovers.???
