Great topic. I think the Pinnacle prop will he win by 3/4 length or more yes -234.
Reason is 3/4 length is win not a push. So its really 1/2 length or closer you are wagering against. If he wins in a 1 1/2 mile race especially against this group of less talented horses it will be by more than 1/2 length. Looks like at least a 75% chance of rain maybe 1/4 inch which is also a positive for a front runner type.
so if you play him this is a great price -234.
OTher than that you might be able to get some
-275 to win or so on ehorsex.com if you put it up and wait it out. but then you pay a 3-5% commission on that if you win so the true value is not the best. still better tyhan 1-9. Smarty will be 1-9 today I am pretty sure of that. he will pay $2.20 on track maybe $2.25 as this is NY and they have better dime breakage right?
The place ticket on Smarty will pay the same (my guess) as his Win money on track so that is a decent way to build in a safety net I suppose.
Bet idea is to find overlays as in all gambling. The overlays will be to bet AGAINST SMARTY especially in the Pick 6, Pick 4 and pick 3's. He will be a way over bet single on 98% of the tickets and you could scoop up a monster by going deeper in the Belmont or another race and leaving him off the ticket. and have a great memory if Smarty loses and you win. Then again most of us want to see Smarty win and he has a solid 75% chance to win or so Id think.
Reason is 3/4 length is win not a push. So its really 1/2 length or closer you are wagering against. If he wins in a 1 1/2 mile race especially against this group of less talented horses it will be by more than 1/2 length. Looks like at least a 75% chance of rain maybe 1/4 inch which is also a positive for a front runner type.
so if you play him this is a great price -234.
OTher than that you might be able to get some
-275 to win or so on ehorsex.com if you put it up and wait it out. but then you pay a 3-5% commission on that if you win so the true value is not the best. still better tyhan 1-9. Smarty will be 1-9 today I am pretty sure of that. he will pay $2.20 on track maybe $2.25 as this is NY and they have better dime breakage right?
The place ticket on Smarty will pay the same (my guess) as his Win money on track so that is a decent way to build in a safety net I suppose.
Bet idea is to find overlays as in all gambling. The overlays will be to bet AGAINST SMARTY especially in the Pick 6, Pick 4 and pick 3's. He will be a way over bet single on 98% of the tickets and you could scoop up a monster by going deeper in the Belmont or another race and leaving him off the ticket. and have a great memory if Smarty loses and you win. Then again most of us want to see Smarty win and he has a solid 75% chance to win or so Id think.
Horse racing is just like sports.You have to look for value.Smarty-234 and -3/4 of a length.Where is the value in that.Give me a break.Im going to try and beat Smarty that is where the value will be.If I lose a unit so be it,if i win,Ill win many units.Im still not sure which way to go but its not -234, -3/4.
The real value will be in the pick-4 even if you single Smarty then you can spread out in the othe three races. Say for $27 you can go with three horses in the first 3 legs and single Smarty for a $1 bet. If you can get around the favs. in the first few races the pay will be very nice even with Smarty winning. Just another wager to think about.
nice post trytrytry
Betting against Smarty Jones in the Pick 3's, 4's and Pick 6 is where I think you'll find the most value and biggest overlays. If SJ doesn't win, these pick tickets will have some great payoffs.
I couldn't lay -234 on the 3/4 of a length win, due to the fact that I only rate his chances to win at about 60%.
Betting against Smarty Jones in the Pick 3's, 4's and Pick 6 is where I think you'll find the most value and biggest overlays. If SJ doesn't win, these pick tickets will have some great payoffs.
I couldn't lay -234 on the 3/4 of a length win, due to the fact that I only rate his chances to win at about 60%.
WHy not just bet Smarty to place? It could very well pay almost the exact same and IF PURGE doesnt come in second then you may get 2.40 out of it rather than 2.10.
By the way, I just placed a $300 exacta bet on Smarty-Purge! I am already started to count my money.
by the way, I look for Smarty to win by 8 lengths
By the way, I just placed a $300 exacta bet on Smarty-Purge! I am already started to count my money.
by the way, I look for Smarty to win by 8 lengths
