questionme5,
You are way off my friend...
Here's how one does the math...
If Yankees are up 3-2, then Florida will have to win 2 in row...
Florida will be at least a 2-1 dog in Game 6 and worse then even money in game 7 but let's just use those numbers to make it easy for you to follow...
If they are the above stated odds in game 6 and 7, then the odds of Fla winning both games are 1/3 X 1/2 or 1/6...
That would equate to 5:1 but since Fla will be a tad higher than even money in game 7 (like plus $1.30) and probably a tad worse than 2:1 in game 5, thats how I came up with minus $5.80 for SERIES...
You are way off my friend...
Here's how one does the math...
If Yankees are up 3-2, then Florida will have to win 2 in row...
Florida will be at least a 2-1 dog in Game 6 and worse then even money in game 7 but let's just use those numbers to make it easy for you to follow...
If they are the above stated odds in game 6 and 7, then the odds of Fla winning both games are 1/3 X 1/2 or 1/6...
That would equate to 5:1 but since Fla will be a tad higher than even money in game 7 (like plus $1.30) and probably a tad worse than 2:1 in game 5, thats how I came up with minus $5.80 for SERIES...
I ran some simulations in 5000 game blocks with MLB Engine ver2.14.
Variables Used:
1)Yankees win Game 5
2)Game 6 - Redman vs Pettitte
3)Game 7-Beckett vs Mussina
4)Umpires set random
5)Weather settings- Saturday: Cloudy temp=52. Wind set non-random N 6-12. Sunday: Overcast and 60. Wind set non-random WNW 8-14.
Simulation Results
Marlins win an average of 1 in 6.214 World Series.
True Odds Conversion:
Yankees -5.21
Marlins +5.21
Obvioulsy the BM needs Mr. Vig on his side- a line of:
Yankees -560
Marlins +470
would give a BM a 2.34% expected hold.
Variables Used:
1)Yankees win Game 5
2)Game 6 - Redman vs Pettitte
3)Game 7-Beckett vs Mussina
4)Umpires set random
5)Weather settings- Saturday: Cloudy temp=52. Wind set non-random N 6-12. Sunday: Overcast and 60. Wind set non-random WNW 8-14.
Simulation Results
Marlins win an average of 1 in 6.214 World Series.
True Odds Conversion:
Yankees -5.21
Marlins +5.21
Obvioulsy the BM needs Mr. Vig on his side- a line of:
Yankees -560
Marlins +470
would give a BM a 2.34% expected hold.
Looks right. For those who don't like to do the math, just go to a book and do a fake parlay, trying to match the odds as close as you can to the odds you're interested in - I just used Canbet to do the math for me, on odds as close as I could get to the odds for Florida in Games 6 and 7:
Betting Ticket
Game Selection Points Odds Part Bet Win Del
2 Team Parlay
57 Carolina Hurricanes 0 +193
65 Chicago Blackhawks 0 +150 100.00 632.50
Odds at Pinnacle are +195 and +149, so the +193 and +150 I used at Canbet are almost dead-on, with the Marlins getting around +632 to win the Series after losing tonight.
Conversely, if the Yankees lose tonight, for them to win the WS would require winning -213 with Pettite and -157 with Mussina, so here's another bogus Canbet parlay approximating those odds:
Betting Ticket
Game Selection Points Odds Part Bet Win Del
2 Team Parlay
959 New York Yankees Action 0 -158
109 Michigan 0 -210 100.00 141.05
Here, you'd be getting +141, so Shrink's calc for Florida to be a -160 favorite looks to be pretty good.
Betting Ticket
Game Selection Points Odds Part Bet Win Del
2 Team Parlay
57 Carolina Hurricanes 0 +193
65 Chicago Blackhawks 0 +150 100.00 632.50
Odds at Pinnacle are +195 and +149, so the +193 and +150 I used at Canbet are almost dead-on, with the Marlins getting around +632 to win the Series after losing tonight.
Conversely, if the Yankees lose tonight, for them to win the WS would require winning -213 with Pettite and -157 with Mussina, so here's another bogus Canbet parlay approximating those odds:
Betting Ticket
Game Selection Points Odds Part Bet Win Del
2 Team Parlay
959 New York Yankees Action 0 -158
109 Michigan 0 -210 100.00 141.05
Here, you'd be getting +141, so Shrink's calc for Florida to be a -160 favorite looks to be pretty good.
Nope, Marlins aren't getting any respect. They haven't since the series started, even before that. Beat SF, came back from 3-1 to beat the Cubs - took out Zambrano, Woods and Prior back to back to back. Even had the best record I believe from the all-star break on. I don't like the Marlins as a fan but as a gambler the team has been money!
