Seems to falter last 1/2, 1/3 of the bowl games...
I don't know but possibly since "defense travels" and the defense is easier to retain after a layoff as opposed to the timing of the offenses that become rusty...the earlier lesser bowls the defense is the key whereas the better teams with top offenses (relatively speaking) are not as affected. I dunno.
I think that is valid, too, to some extent.
Today and tomorrow we are seeing teams that were in the top 2 or 3 finishers in the power conferences, mostly, they are different than the earlier games in so many ways, Massey is not quite the same factor. Top SEC teams vs lesser conferences are attractive at this point.
Miss St and Iowa are similar philosophies, very defensive oriented teams but Miss St is in the best conference by far so they should cover, BIG, Pac 12 is soft, Washington O cannot keep up, no way. 41-48 for OSU.
KY is a top SEC team with a top D getting points and should cover with the points in this spot but not a big play for me.
LSU lost some good CBs and a lineman but I think they will come to play and manhandle UCF... the AA has been lousy ATS other than Tulane (USF, Memp, Houston, Temple, Cincy) so they have not been playing the caliber of football that the SEC does... so I have to go with LSU.
You know I like OSU, BIG.
Texas is a good squad getting 11 and the Big 12 has been covering impressively but I don't know if I can go against GA, they are very talented and might be PO'd to show the world they shoulda been in there instead of ND and The Sooners. But they might not fight hard. I am mulling this one over, the Big 12 angle is important but GA is SEC and might be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the land at this point. A favorite that can run this well is so attractive.
GL!
So 14-10 last year.
theDonger is right, things happen, this year Michigan had 3 top players sit, Cincy QB got injured early, I could point out some others...etc.
Another thing is the conference styles... Big 12 defensive stats are poor, but the thing is they for some unknown reason mostly play a wide open passing game that affects their stats. But in reality those defenses are not that bad*, and they are 5-1 so far ATS and have some impressive covers (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Ia St., Ok St. their only non cover was WV that lost top notch QB Grier with a very sub par backup).
Logically I should go with Texas today on that basis but not sure I can, GA might be a pissed off SEC monster.
GL!
* think, KC Chiefs, or for older guys, think Air Coryel
Interesting perspective.
I lean to GA, but this game I might wait to see the opening series or two, to see if GA wins the LOS on O or D, then in game wager. This has worked several times when motivation is in question with the earlier bowls. Later bowls most teams are motivated, but yes, GA also might be bummed out instead of pissed.
But in your heart you know GA has a legitimate argument that they are a top 4 team after ND got blown out and OK struggled so badly. I think Vegas would rank them 4th. GA in a different situation than Texas, thought they had a chance at the playoffs, here they are. Texas knew they were not playoff bound, lost the Big 12 Championship, but not as bitter.
In game live for me, probably.
Here 2017 ad 2018 Massey System stats.
| 2017 Massey System | 2018 Massey System | ||
| 12/17/2017 | 5-0 | 12/15/2018 | 5-0 |
| 12/19/2017 | 1-0 | 12/18/2018 | 0-1 |
| 12/20/2017 | 1-0 | 12/19/2018 | 0-1 |
| 12/21/2017 | 1-0 | 12/20/2018 | 1-0 |
| 12/22/2017 | 2-0 | 12/21/2018 | 2-0 |
| 12/23/2017 | 2-1 | 12/22/2018 | 4-0 |
| 12/24/2017 | 1-0 | 12/26/2018 | 1-1 |
| 12/26/2017 | 3-0 | 12/27/2018 | 1-2 |
| 12/27/2017 | 3-1 | 12/28/2018 | 2-1 |
| 12/28/2017 | 1-3 | 12/29/2018 | 2-3 |
| 12/29/2017 | 2-3 | 12/31/2018 | 1-5 |
| 12/30/2017 | 4-0 | 19-14 | |
| 01/01/2018 | 1-3 | ||
| 27-12 |
****Georgia is not pissed regardless of what anyone tells you. Fake outrage. Two losses and a chance to get in and they choked. They have no reason to be mad and they know it If anything they should be down for this game.
Agree 100%. They believe, especially after seeing ND, they should be in the playoffs. They believe this bowl game is beneath them. See Michigan.
Agree 100%. They believe, especially after seeing ND, they should be in the playoffs. They believe this bowl game is beneath them. See Michigan.
as far as massey ratings for bowls LY, he started out 14-3, then went 9-14 the rest of the way.
he has 2 DEF Numbers, Have seen folks get confused about this.
the first is the rDef Rating. it is something like 40.58 or 30.36.
the other number he uses is DEF Rank. It is a whole number from 1 to 130.
Remember. You want to play the team with the BEST defense.
If you use the Def rating, Take the Higher number.
If you use the Def Rank, Take the Lower number.
he has 2 DEF Numbers, Have seen folks get confused about this.
the first is the rDef Rating. it is something like 40.58 or 30.36.
the other number he uses is DEF Rank. It is a whole number from 1 to 130.
Remember. You want to play the team with the BEST defense.
If you use the Def rating, Take the Higher number.
If you use the Def Rank, Take the Lower number.
Games before December 25:
Navy
Buffalo
Utah St.
Alcorn St.
SD St.
Ga. So.
Florida Atlantic
FIU
Washington
App. St.
UCF
BYU
Mostly favorites a little worrisome.
Numbers readjust after games are played. Keep an eye on FIU and UCF.
Not sure if Navy and Alcorn St. are technically part of this system.
Navy
Buffalo
Utah St.
Alcorn St.
SD St.
Ga. So.
Florida Atlantic
FIU
Washington
App. St.
UCF
BYU
Mostly favorites a little worrisome.
Numbers readjust after games are played. Keep an eye on FIU and UCF.
Not sure if Navy and Alcorn St. are technically part of this system.
