If you want to maximize the expected winnings from a match play wager, play a heavy dog with the match play money and the corresponding favorite at another book. To equalize your winnings regardless of the outcome of the game, use the formula [(ODDS of Dog x ODDS of Fav)/(1+ ODDS of Fav)] x Match Play Amt. Note that you are trying to maximize this formula: [ODDS of Dog/(1+ODDS of Fav)] x Matchplay Amt. For example, say you want to maximize your GUARANTEED winnings from a $100 match play. Then lets say you've found 2 wager combinations that you want to compare. First of all, find out which combo is better using formula 2 ...
1) Match play on +350 dog and counter wager on -400 favorite. This combination of wagers is worth [3.50/(1+4.00)] x 100 or $70
2) Match play on +220 dog and counter wager on -225 favorite. This combination of wagers is worth [2.20/(1+2.25)] x 100 or $67.69
In this case, the first combination of wagers is better and is worth $70. Now, using the 1st formula, calculate the amount to place on the favorite to guarantee a win of $70 either way ...
[(ODDS of Dog x ODDS of Fav)/(1+ ODDS of Fav)] x Match Play Amt
[(3.50 x 4.00)/(1+4.00)] x 100 = $280
So if you risk $280 on the fav, and play the $100 match play on the dog, you'll win $70 no matter what.
Note: 70 to 75 cents on the match play dollar is a pretty good return. If you can find a combination wagers to guarantee this amount in winnings, then you've found a good combo to use it on. Also note it is advantageous to concentrate on larger dogs rather than smaller ones, because the odds on the favorite don't have to be as close.
