what the sheep are betting

[seer]

POINT SPREAD OVER/UNDER MONEY LINE

3:30 PM

NEW ENGLAND PK-110 78.9% ov48.5 -110 65.9% - SEATTLE PK-110 21.1% un48.5 -110 34.1%

 

[The Guesser]

The sheep did pretty good betting the sheep teaser of NE and GB today. Sometimes the sheep win. Not sure where you're getting your figures. I see Seattle getting about 59% of the action so far at SBR Odds.

 

[alkimyst]

I'm not so sure that it's "sheep" betting two weeks beforethe game. I'd wait until game day to see if you're truly looking for a public percentage or whatever.

My two cents....

 

[Bl0wnAway]

It was probably a mix of public and sharp money early if they moved the line 3 points. Public was for sure hitting he Pats during their dismantling of the Colts, though. 3-1 tickets on Pats. I think this line sits til game time and then there might be some Seahawks buy back by the sharp sides. I did see the Mirage took a 6 figure bet on Pats -1, but who knows if that's a betting syndicate, some rich guy, Floyd mayweather, or actually a pro bettor

 

[JBoGod]

Same as last year w/ Denver... Maybe they'll learn from it this time

 

[Albatross]

I'm not so sure that it's "sheep" betting two weeks beforethe game. I'd wait until game day to see if you're truly looking for a public percentage or whatever.

My two cents....

Exactly my thoughts. All my guys including myself aren't touching the game until game week. I really don't understand the sheep talk tho. My book opened at Seattle -3 and dropped fast tailing vegas. Talked to book this am and he said he has hardly any volume as of today.

 

[divemaster]

So, wait, if you bet on the Patriots, you're a sheep?

 

[HorseInvestor]

The Pats and Brady will be the favorite before game time.......That is the safest bet there is.....probably 1 or 2 points

 

[chonce]

I like to fade the public, I do... but with one game left, I don't care what "sharps" and "sheep" think. The sharps were on the Colts last week, the Broncos the week before, and the Bengals the week before. In the playoffs, as I often say, the line between sharp and sheep is really murky.

 

[seer]

I like to fade the public, I do... but with one game left, I don't care what "sharps" and "sheep" think. The sharps were on the Colts last week, the Broncos the week before, and the Bengals the week before. In the playoffs, as I often say, the line between sharp and sheep is really murky.

the sharps were also pounding the broncos last year too.

 

[Albatross]

Never understood betting the SB line early. Seems like a lot could happen with injury reports, illness, etc for a game that is 2 weeks out. Especially when the number bouncing between 3s.

 

[ML Dog]

the sharps were also pounding the broncos last year too.

Hell yeah well Maybe.

I see you post about Sharp $ sometimes. I try to be mindful of this as well. I wonder though if we're not looking at today's (suspected) "Sharp $" through yesterday's glasses seer. I mean...isn't it basically really really hard to isolate with confidence "sharp $" wise guy moves than once it was? thus totally a much less +EV prop tailing todays "sharp $" (or fading suspected square $)...infinitely more risky than it was on the Old Planet?

Mainly how do you even recognize "sharp $" nowadays seer?

 

[seer]

Hell yeah well Maybe.

I see you post about Sharp $ sometimes. I try to be mindful of this as well. I wonder though if we're not looking at today's (suspected) "Sharp $" through yesterday's glasses seer. I mean...isn't it basically really really hard to isolate with confidence "sharp $" wise guy moves than once it was? thus totally a much less +EV prop tailing todays "sharp $" (or fading suspected square $)...infinitely more risky than it was on the Old Planet?

Mainly how do you even recognize "sharp $" nowadays seer?

books are now on twitter and often report what they need

 

[texansfan]

Never understood betting the SB line early. Seems like a lot could happen with injury reports, illness, etc for a game that is 2 weeks out. Especially when the number bouncing between 3s.

What about the total?

 

[ML Dog]

books are now on twitter and often report what they need

Holy Crap seer. See what I mean? Brave New World.

Have you tracked your results from plays made based on tweeting books seer? I'd be fascinated by that win %.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

What if the supposed sharps bet the Pats +3 for 500k & then come game day after everyone follows them, then come over the top & bet Seattle for several million?

It happens quite a bit........

 

[ML Dog]

What if the supposed sharps bet the Pats +3 for 500k & then come game day after everyone follows them, then come over the top & bet Seattle for several million?

It happens quite a bit........

Hell Yeah and an oft used betting strategy of your namesakes, Mr. Walters and crew...as you realize. I'd expect theres a few out there fortunate enough to get Pats+3 who've got Visions of Middling swirling in their minds right now too.

 

[mountain]

Black Sunday for the books.

Before my time but I have heard a lot about the bath the books took in the 1979 Superbowl between Dallas-Pittsburgh. Different times for sure but shows what a little bit of line movement can do to the books. The article was written last year but if you like the movie Casino with De Niro, this article mentions the character he played.


http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/sto...orite-broncos-seahawks-betting-las-vegas-1979

 

[Albatross]

What about the total?

I guess the totals can cross key numbers ahead of time. I personally suck at totals so I rarely play them.

 

[3peet]

I think it's safe to say the public will ride the Pats.