[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S BOWL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We continue now with a look at what the sharps are thinking about the next set of bowl games. I'll outline the four games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday in this edition. We're doing that a bit early because the weekend edition will focus as always on what the sharps are thinking about the NFL card. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]On Monday, I'll pick back up with an outline for everything scheduled Monday and Tuesday. Reports will continue through the week as I get you ready for the monster schedule on New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, and beyond. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I know you're busy during this holiday stretch. Do you best to be with us often so you can know exactly what's happening in the betting markets with all of these big games![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's run through the upcoming matchups in rotation order...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
WEST VIRGINIA VS. NORTH CAROLINA
The sharps moved early on West Virginia at +1. North Carolina was a false favorite in their view. The favorite flipped over to West Virginia fairly quickly, and has been sitting at West Virginia -1.5 now for quite a while. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total in this one moved up from 44 to 45. I was a bit surprised at that one after watching so many low scoring West Virginia games on TV. I guess North Carolina has seen some high scoring games on and off of late. Nobody's been betting the Over since it hit 45...so maybe it was just a math difference tied to that key number. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why the love for West Virginia? They did win their bowl game last year under this head coach (upsetting Oklahoma in a BCS game). And, this is a team that finds a way to be there at the end of the game more often than not. It's tough to blowout West Virginia given their defensive strength. North Carolina's offense has been turnover prone this season too. West Virginia can take advantage of that. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You couldn't say this was a huge endorsement of West Virginia from the sharps. They just felt the wrong team was favored and acted on that belief. The money stopped coming in well before hitting -3. More action could be ahead on game day. Some of the true heavy hitters are betting massive amounts on game days once the public action starts coming in. We had quite a tug of war on Boise State/TCU the other night. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Saturday games had a tug of war too. Too early at this point to know how that might play out. For now, West Virginia and Over were the sharp bets early on, but with relatively tepid enthusiasm. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
WISCONSIN VS. FLORIDA STATE
Florida State made headlines last year when they had about half the team suspended for academic reasons. Well, it wasn't exactly half the team. It just seemed that way. That memory kept sharps from getting too involved here because they didn't want the same thing to happen again! One of the reasons we're going to see game day tugs of war in the bowls is that you can be pretty sure on game day that nobody's going to get suspended at the last second! Florida State did move from -4 to -5 here...with money coming in from people who figured lightning wasn't going to hit the program two years in a row. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm tempted to think more Florida State money may come in after that. People really were hesitant here at first. If the non-hesitant money was on the Seminoles...more could follow once its clear the roster will be intact. The public likes betting favorites anyway. This line just might shoot up on Saturday once the bullets start firing. If you like the favorite yourself, act early. If you like the dog, be patient and see if you can get a higher number than you're seeing now before kickoff. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has come down from 53 to 52. Florida's strength is on defense. So, it makes sense that affection for Florida State would be linked to defense. Wisconsin did have trouble scoring vs. the better defenses it faced in Big 10 play. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm interested to see how this one plays out. Sharps generally like underdogs as a rule. But, they also like going against Big Ten teams in non-conference action when matched up against quality. We may learn a lot about how the Big Ten is going to perform this year by watching Wisconsin on the field here. To this point, the sharps who have bet like Florida State. Should we see the line go up to something like -7, some Wisconsin money might come pouring in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EMERALD BOWL
MIAMI OF FLORIDA VS. CALIFORNIA
It's Miami this year rather than Florida State that's been getting hit with suspensions. One of their quarterbacks will miss the game. And, this isn't a program that's been getting much out of their quarterbacks anyway. California opened at -7.5, and is up to -8 on the suspension developments. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That may not sound like a big move to you. It's only half a point. But, we're very close to a critical number...and the line is going UP and away from that critical number. If sharps liked the dog, they would have hit Miami +7.5 hard because of the extra hook on the touchdown. That didn't happen. The only money coming in took the line higher. You always have to remember the nuances of football line movements. A jump from -4 to -5 for a favorite represents a decent endorsement of the favorite...but a half point jump from -7.5 to -8 is actually much stronger. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You regulars may be wondering about teasers here. If you see a line of -7.5 of -8, it's natural to think of moving that down to -1.5 or -2 in a two-team teaser. Are sharps doing that? Generally not. Sharps don't play teasers in college because scoring is so much more volatile. The value of each point is less, so moving something six points lacks the same punch. I do know some guys who are thinking about this one though. If Miami is shorthanded, and not that motivated anyway...asking California to win by a field goal is going to make some sense. Some guys may break their "no college" rule with this many influences in place. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has dropped from 51.5 to 50. This bowl has some low scoring years. And, in rainy Decembers, the field can turn into a real mess. That may be something that comes into play by kickoff, so pay attention. The total will drop even further if field conditions aren't great. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. LOUISIANA TECH[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
This is the Sunday Night game. Like last week's New Orleans Bowl, hardly anyone will be watching because an important NFL game will be on at the same time! People will be betting it though...and sharps will be looking for edges if the line moves. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps hit the opener pretty hard with Louisiana Tech +3. The line is down to +1 as I write this (pick-em in some spots). The favorite hasn't flipped yet, but might before kickoff. You know that Louisiana Tech is going to have a strong home crowd influence. Northern Illinois wasn't a very good team this season...posting a mediocre record against a very soft schedule. Well, you could say that about both teams obviously. Louisiana Tech is getting a home cooking nod from the sharps...particularly when the line was the full field goal. That's what I mean about key numbers. When the sharps like the dog, the line moves below the critical number quickly. If a vulnerable line isn't moving (as Cal -7.5 didn't move down), it's a tacit endorsement of the favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has been sitting at 47 and hasn't moved. Any weather developments will move the line on game day. Otherwise 47 seems pretty solid. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So, for the four games overall...sharps liked West Virginia, Florida State, California, and Louisiana Tech to varying degrees. That's two small dogs on the openers who may be favorites at kickoff...and two favorites. Considering how dog heavy sharps have been in the past, this is a bit of a change in form. Maybe the era of underdog dominance is over, and the sharps are confirming this with their betting action. [/FONT]
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S BOWL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We continue now with a look at what the sharps are thinking about the next set of bowl games. I'll outline the four games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday in this edition. We're doing that a bit early because the weekend edition will focus as always on what the sharps are thinking about the NFL card. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]On Monday, I'll pick back up with an outline for everything scheduled Monday and Tuesday. Reports will continue through the week as I get you ready for the monster schedule on New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, and beyond. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I know you're busy during this holiday stretch. Do you best to be with us often so you can know exactly what's happening in the betting markets with all of these big games![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's run through the upcoming matchups in rotation order...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
WEST VIRGINIA VS. NORTH CAROLINA
The sharps moved early on West Virginia at +1. North Carolina was a false favorite in their view. The favorite flipped over to West Virginia fairly quickly, and has been sitting at West Virginia -1.5 now for quite a while. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total in this one moved up from 44 to 45. I was a bit surprised at that one after watching so many low scoring West Virginia games on TV. I guess North Carolina has seen some high scoring games on and off of late. Nobody's been betting the Over since it hit 45...so maybe it was just a math difference tied to that key number. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Why the love for West Virginia? They did win their bowl game last year under this head coach (upsetting Oklahoma in a BCS game). And, this is a team that finds a way to be there at the end of the game more often than not. It's tough to blowout West Virginia given their defensive strength. North Carolina's offense has been turnover prone this season too. West Virginia can take advantage of that. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You couldn't say this was a huge endorsement of West Virginia from the sharps. They just felt the wrong team was favored and acted on that belief. The money stopped coming in well before hitting -3. More action could be ahead on game day. Some of the true heavy hitters are betting massive amounts on game days once the public action starts coming in. We had quite a tug of war on Boise State/TCU the other night. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Saturday games had a tug of war too. Too early at this point to know how that might play out. For now, West Virginia and Over were the sharp bets early on, but with relatively tepid enthusiasm. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
WISCONSIN VS. FLORIDA STATE
Florida State made headlines last year when they had about half the team suspended for academic reasons. Well, it wasn't exactly half the team. It just seemed that way. That memory kept sharps from getting too involved here because they didn't want the same thing to happen again! One of the reasons we're going to see game day tugs of war in the bowls is that you can be pretty sure on game day that nobody's going to get suspended at the last second! Florida State did move from -4 to -5 here...with money coming in from people who figured lightning wasn't going to hit the program two years in a row. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm tempted to think more Florida State money may come in after that. People really were hesitant here at first. If the non-hesitant money was on the Seminoles...more could follow once its clear the roster will be intact. The public likes betting favorites anyway. This line just might shoot up on Saturday once the bullets start firing. If you like the favorite yourself, act early. If you like the dog, be patient and see if you can get a higher number than you're seeing now before kickoff. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has come down from 53 to 52. Florida's strength is on defense. So, it makes sense that affection for Florida State would be linked to defense. Wisconsin did have trouble scoring vs. the better defenses it faced in Big 10 play. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm interested to see how this one plays out. Sharps generally like underdogs as a rule. But, they also like going against Big Ten teams in non-conference action when matched up against quality. We may learn a lot about how the Big Ten is going to perform this year by watching Wisconsin on the field here. To this point, the sharps who have bet like Florida State. Should we see the line go up to something like -7, some Wisconsin money might come pouring in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EMERALD BOWL
MIAMI OF FLORIDA VS. CALIFORNIA
It's Miami this year rather than Florida State that's been getting hit with suspensions. One of their quarterbacks will miss the game. And, this isn't a program that's been getting much out of their quarterbacks anyway. California opened at -7.5, and is up to -8 on the suspension developments. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That may not sound like a big move to you. It's only half a point. But, we're very close to a critical number...and the line is going UP and away from that critical number. If sharps liked the dog, they would have hit Miami +7.5 hard because of the extra hook on the touchdown. That didn't happen. The only money coming in took the line higher. You always have to remember the nuances of football line movements. A jump from -4 to -5 for a favorite represents a decent endorsement of the favorite...but a half point jump from -7.5 to -8 is actually much stronger. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You regulars may be wondering about teasers here. If you see a line of -7.5 of -8, it's natural to think of moving that down to -1.5 or -2 in a two-team teaser. Are sharps doing that? Generally not. Sharps don't play teasers in college because scoring is so much more volatile. The value of each point is less, so moving something six points lacks the same punch. I do know some guys who are thinking about this one though. If Miami is shorthanded, and not that motivated anyway...asking California to win by a field goal is going to make some sense. Some guys may break their "no college" rule with this many influences in place. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has dropped from 51.5 to 50. This bowl has some low scoring years. And, in rainy Decembers, the field can turn into a real mess. That may be something that comes into play by kickoff, so pay attention. The total will drop even further if field conditions aren't great. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]INDEPENDENCE BOWL
NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. LOUISIANA TECH[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
This is the Sunday Night game. Like last week's New Orleans Bowl, hardly anyone will be watching because an important NFL game will be on at the same time! People will be betting it though...and sharps will be looking for edges if the line moves. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps hit the opener pretty hard with Louisiana Tech +3. The line is down to +1 as I write this (pick-em in some spots). The favorite hasn't flipped yet, but might before kickoff. You know that Louisiana Tech is going to have a strong home crowd influence. Northern Illinois wasn't a very good team this season...posting a mediocre record against a very soft schedule. Well, you could say that about both teams obviously. Louisiana Tech is getting a home cooking nod from the sharps...particularly when the line was the full field goal. That's what I mean about key numbers. When the sharps like the dog, the line moves below the critical number quickly. If a vulnerable line isn't moving (as Cal -7.5 didn't move down), it's a tacit endorsement of the favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The total has been sitting at 47 and hasn't moved. Any weather developments will move the line on game day. Otherwise 47 seems pretty solid. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So, for the four games overall...sharps liked West Virginia, Florida State, California, and Louisiana Tech to varying degrees. That's two small dogs on the openers who may be favorites at kickoff...and two favorites. Considering how dog heavy sharps have been in the past, this is a bit of a change in form. Maybe the era of underdog dominance is over, and the sharps are confirming this with their betting action. [/FONT]
ope: some people are such jokes
hno:. You obviously have a problem reading the English language as well as your ability to understand and comprehend words is below that of my daughter who is in 1st grade. Please do us all a favor and stay off of your parents computer, go back to school, get some more edumacation:missingte and come back in a few years. Thanks for the tip however, as I am now inclined to play West Virginia
