[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFFS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The first round of the NBA playoffs gets under way this weekend with eight series. As we've done with all the other legal betting sports, I wanted to tell you what the sharps (professional wagerers) were thinking entering this big attraction. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'll take you series by series in this report. Then, I'll pop in with more basketball in the coming days as the schedule permits. If interesting storylines develop in Las Vegas and Reno develop in the midst of each round, I'll keep you updated. If it's largely status quo in these early days, I'll focus on what the sharps are doing on a round-by-round basis. I expect to write A LOT about basketball in the later rounds when some very appealing matchups are on the floor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This next week will pretty much depend on how events play out. If the chalk (the betting favorites), are taking care of things in short order, there won't be much to write about and I'll focus on baseball for a few days. If there's excitement on the floor...and in Nevada sportsbooks...then you'll be reading about it right here![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As I mentioned, there are eight series that start this weekend. I'm not going to spend any time on the #1 versus #8 matchups. Those series prices are very high...and the home favorites are going to be expensive in their first two games. You long time readers know that sharps don't invest in big favorites very often...and they tend not to "love" underdogs who are overmatched in a series. Basically...nobody's touching Cleveland/Detroit in the East right now until they get a better feel for whether or not the Pistons are going to show up. There's a little bit of interest on Utah as a value play against the Lakers just because the Jazz are pretty good for a #8 seed. I do expect some sharp play on the Jazz in their home games in this series at cheap prices. We'll see if that plays out next week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's what I'm seeing in the other six matchups:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO VS. BOSTON (starts Saturday)
Sharps are definitely looking at Chicago in this series as a dangerous underdog. There's a feeling that Boston will have trouble living up to pointspread expectations without Kevin Garnett in the lineup. The public will still bet Boston because they're the defending champs...and because the public always bets favorites! The Bulls closed the season well, and their youthful roster might have an edge in the second week if this series goes six or seven games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Early offshore prices showed Boston at -800 to win the series. Las Vegas opened closer to -500 because of the early offshore action was so heavily on the Bulls. The Game One line dropped from Boston by 9.5 to Boston by 8.5 as well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm not suggesting that the sharps are saying Chicago is a lock to win the series. But, the Wise Guys do believe they're getting value at the very high prices and are betting accordingly. I expect that to continue later in the series too. Chicago will get sharp action at home considering how badly Boston played on the road last year. [/FONT]
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DALLAS VS. SAN ANTONIO (starts Saturday)
There was also a big difference here between the offshore opener and what Nevada posted several hours later. San Antonio went up at -250 to win the series in the Caribbean, but was just -140 on the openers in Nevada. The Spurs will be playing without Manu Ginobili, and will have to hope Tim Duncan can play through an injury. Much of the value may be gone from that early offshore number. But, I can tell you that sharps are looking at how well Dallas closed the season, and will be looking to get their money in on the Mavericks at good prices throughout this series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oh, this is another series where the dog may get better the longer it goes because of the injury situation. Keep that in mind. Home favorites often start out well...so make sure you're in synch with the probable flow of these series![/FONT]
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HOUSTON VS. PORTLAND (starts Saturday)
There hasn't been much betting interest in this series yet. Portland's about -140 to win the round, which is reflective of what home court advantage is worth when even teams are playing each other. These two were seen as even. I know a lot of sharps who were looking to take either of these teams if they ran into other teams in the West. They're disappointed the Rockets and Blazers have to play each other![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We saw the Game One line fall from Portland -5 to Portland -4. For now, I'm expecting the sharps to be on the dog in every game on the assumption that the two teams are dead even, so you might as well take any points that are offered. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Note that the total dropped from 183 to 182. These teams can defend. Sharps will be betting Unders in the later games if it goes the distance. [/FONT]
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PHILADELPHIA VS. ORLANDO (starts Sunday)
We move to Sunday's games now...and this might as well be a #1 vs. #8 game the way it's priced. Orlando is seen as a league power who could definitely win the East and take on the Lakers in the championship. Philadelphia is seen as a team that stumbled most of the season and doesn't match up well with the elite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, the sharps aren't very interested in this series. I'll let you know next week if that changes. [/FONT]
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MIAMI VS. ATLANTA (starts Sunday)
This is another series where the teams are seen as dead even, and the home team is about -140 to advance. I'm a little surprised we're seeing lines of -4 and -5 in the first game because home court is usually worth about 3 points in the NBA. What's happening here is a shading against the tendency for the public to load up on the home teams in the first game. Hey, that works sometimes...so the sportsbooks have to defend themselves. I think the home favorite prices will be lower in the later games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I have heard some sharps looking at Miami. They were hoping for a better price though. Miami is a rare "public dog" because the squares love Dwyane Wade but don't really follow Atlanta very much. Dallas is getting more interest as a dog at this price range than Miami is from the sharps. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS VS. DENVER (starts Sunday)
I have to say that the sharps don't know what to make of this series. They'd normally be all over a talent like Chris Paul at an underdog price. But...the team hasn't been playing well lately...their opponent has been GREAT since acquiring Chauncey Billups...and sharps don't like bucking home court advantage at altitude. As a result, I've seen little sharp interest so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now...the sharps "want" to invest in New Orleans, but they're going to wait for better prices or a stronger situation within the series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That wraps up my summary of what the sharps are thinking about the first round of the NBA playoffs. Nobody should be surprised that there isn't any passion for favorites from the sharps. There usually isn't anyway. And, if it does show up in the NBA playoffs, it would be in a later round where one of the powers has a clear matchup edge they can exploit. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And, to be honest, many sharps have lost their love for this sport over the years. The old timers struggled to adjust as the game changed. A lot of the younger guys have had so much success with college basketball totals that they don't spend as much time with the pro's. The number of sharps attacking the NBA has gone down...and the early action from those who still do isn't as aggressive as it will be later. [/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFFS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The first round of the NBA playoffs gets under way this weekend with eight series. As we've done with all the other legal betting sports, I wanted to tell you what the sharps (professional wagerers) were thinking entering this big attraction. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'll take you series by series in this report. Then, I'll pop in with more basketball in the coming days as the schedule permits. If interesting storylines develop in Las Vegas and Reno develop in the midst of each round, I'll keep you updated. If it's largely status quo in these early days, I'll focus on what the sharps are doing on a round-by-round basis. I expect to write A LOT about basketball in the later rounds when some very appealing matchups are on the floor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This next week will pretty much depend on how events play out. If the chalk (the betting favorites), are taking care of things in short order, there won't be much to write about and I'll focus on baseball for a few days. If there's excitement on the floor...and in Nevada sportsbooks...then you'll be reading about it right here![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As I mentioned, there are eight series that start this weekend. I'm not going to spend any time on the #1 versus #8 matchups. Those series prices are very high...and the home favorites are going to be expensive in their first two games. You long time readers know that sharps don't invest in big favorites very often...and they tend not to "love" underdogs who are overmatched in a series. Basically...nobody's touching Cleveland/Detroit in the East right now until they get a better feel for whether or not the Pistons are going to show up. There's a little bit of interest on Utah as a value play against the Lakers just because the Jazz are pretty good for a #8 seed. I do expect some sharp play on the Jazz in their home games in this series at cheap prices. We'll see if that plays out next week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's what I'm seeing in the other six matchups:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO VS. BOSTON (starts Saturday)
Sharps are definitely looking at Chicago in this series as a dangerous underdog. There's a feeling that Boston will have trouble living up to pointspread expectations without Kevin Garnett in the lineup. The public will still bet Boston because they're the defending champs...and because the public always bets favorites! The Bulls closed the season well, and their youthful roster might have an edge in the second week if this series goes six or seven games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Early offshore prices showed Boston at -800 to win the series. Las Vegas opened closer to -500 because of the early offshore action was so heavily on the Bulls. The Game One line dropped from Boston by 9.5 to Boston by 8.5 as well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm not suggesting that the sharps are saying Chicago is a lock to win the series. But, the Wise Guys do believe they're getting value at the very high prices and are betting accordingly. I expect that to continue later in the series too. Chicago will get sharp action at home considering how badly Boston played on the road last year. [/FONT]
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DALLAS VS. SAN ANTONIO (starts Saturday)
There was also a big difference here between the offshore opener and what Nevada posted several hours later. San Antonio went up at -250 to win the series in the Caribbean, but was just -140 on the openers in Nevada. The Spurs will be playing without Manu Ginobili, and will have to hope Tim Duncan can play through an injury. Much of the value may be gone from that early offshore number. But, I can tell you that sharps are looking at how well Dallas closed the season, and will be looking to get their money in on the Mavericks at good prices throughout this series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oh, this is another series where the dog may get better the longer it goes because of the injury situation. Keep that in mind. Home favorites often start out well...so make sure you're in synch with the probable flow of these series![/FONT]
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HOUSTON VS. PORTLAND (starts Saturday)
There hasn't been much betting interest in this series yet. Portland's about -140 to win the round, which is reflective of what home court advantage is worth when even teams are playing each other. These two were seen as even. I know a lot of sharps who were looking to take either of these teams if they ran into other teams in the West. They're disappointed the Rockets and Blazers have to play each other![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We saw the Game One line fall from Portland -5 to Portland -4. For now, I'm expecting the sharps to be on the dog in every game on the assumption that the two teams are dead even, so you might as well take any points that are offered. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Note that the total dropped from 183 to 182. These teams can defend. Sharps will be betting Unders in the later games if it goes the distance. [/FONT]
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PHILADELPHIA VS. ORLANDO (starts Sunday)
We move to Sunday's games now...and this might as well be a #1 vs. #8 game the way it's priced. Orlando is seen as a league power who could definitely win the East and take on the Lakers in the championship. Philadelphia is seen as a team that stumbled most of the season and doesn't match up well with the elite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, the sharps aren't very interested in this series. I'll let you know next week if that changes. [/FONT]
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MIAMI VS. ATLANTA (starts Sunday)
This is another series where the teams are seen as dead even, and the home team is about -140 to advance. I'm a little surprised we're seeing lines of -4 and -5 in the first game because home court is usually worth about 3 points in the NBA. What's happening here is a shading against the tendency for the public to load up on the home teams in the first game. Hey, that works sometimes...so the sportsbooks have to defend themselves. I think the home favorite prices will be lower in the later games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I have heard some sharps looking at Miami. They were hoping for a better price though. Miami is a rare "public dog" because the squares love Dwyane Wade but don't really follow Atlanta very much. Dallas is getting more interest as a dog at this price range than Miami is from the sharps. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ORLEANS VS. DENVER (starts Sunday)
I have to say that the sharps don't know what to make of this series. They'd normally be all over a talent like Chris Paul at an underdog price. But...the team hasn't been playing well lately...their opponent has been GREAT since acquiring Chauncey Billups...and sharps don't like bucking home court advantage at altitude. As a result, I've seen little sharp interest so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now...the sharps "want" to invest in New Orleans, but they're going to wait for better prices or a stronger situation within the series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That wraps up my summary of what the sharps are thinking about the first round of the NBA playoffs. Nobody should be surprised that there isn't any passion for favorites from the sharps. There usually isn't anyway. And, if it does show up in the NBA playoffs, it would be in a later round where one of the powers has a clear matchup edge they can exploit. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And, to be honest, many sharps have lost their love for this sport over the years. The old timers struggled to adjust as the game changed. A lot of the younger guys have had so much success with college basketball totals that they don't spend as much time with the pro's. The number of sharps attacking the NBA has gone down...and the early action from those who still do isn't as aggressive as it will be later. [/FONT]
